2017/18 CL GRP F Shaktar x Manchester City x Napoli x Feyenoord

[bugylibicska]

To win, to qualify:

1.05 Man City no odds given
11.00 Napoli 1.73
11.00 Shakhtar 1.83
1001.00 Feyenoord 101.00

[Dragonite]

Expected results in this group, the only group playing in the evening of Tuesday October 17th without surprises.

Still some interesting facts worth mentioning about Shakhtar Donetsk:

First, their coach Paulo Fonseca already got more points in just 3 matches for Shakhtar Donetsk, than in his entire CL campaign for FC Porto in 2013/2014.

Second, in that same 2013/2014 season, Shakhtar Donetsk signed Bernard and paid 25M€ for him.
It took him four years and twenty CL matches to finally score a goal for them in the CL (and he did it twice).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk have to wait another four years and twenty CL matches for him to score again?


Feyenoord waited a lot more than that to return to the CL, 15 years, and now are probably wishing they hadn’t.
When they played the CL four times between 1997/1998 and 2002/2003 they were a competitive team that could get 35 points in 30 CL matches (and also go all the way to win the UEFA Cup in 2001/2002). Now they are a harmless team that may not even be able to get a single point.

This has a broader range than just Feyenoord, there are several teams that were competitive 15 years ago and now aren’t anymore. What are the causes for this? CL spots distribution and revenue distribution system?

But the likes of Valencia, Werder Bremen, Newcastle, Lazio (just to mention one each from UEFA’s four favourite members) were also much bigger back then than they are right now. So maybe these decadent clubs should search for internal reasons and not external reasons.


Napoli is having its worst ever start in CL, never before they had only 3 points after round 3 (5 in 2011/2012, 6 in 2013/2014, and 6 in 2016/2017). Can they still reverse this?

Manchester City, on the other hand, keeps having its best ever start.
They are one win away from equaling their biggest ever CL winning streak of 4 matches, but that was accomplished between rounds 3 and 6 of the 2013/2014 group stage, “only” against CSKA Moscow (twice) plus Viktoria Plzen plus an already qualified Bayern Munich, while this one, if they do it again, will be more impressive, because of the opponents’ level (excluding Feyenoord) and also because it was in the first four rounds.

Anyway, I suppose they haven’t signed Guardiola and all those expensive players just to progress from CL group stages (Pellegrini could also ensure them that), we’ll only know if their project was successful or not later – last season it wasn’t, because they immediately crashed against Monaco.

[Duketown]

So with 90 min. for Jorgensson, things look better in Ukraine. Nieuwkoop and Van Beek will also be able to play a full match, while Botteghin and V/d Heijden, normal central defense, and Tapia might be fit again. Hopefully we see a fully fit Feyenoord for the first time and see what they are made of. But they need an extra midfielder to have a better grip on those Brazilians. Maybe even an injury for one of them is needed since I don't think their subs are even close to equal.

Jones
Nieuwkoop - Tapia - St. Juste - Haps
---- El Ahmadi - Amrabat -------
Toornstra - Vilhena
Berghuis - Jorgenson
injured: Botteghin, Botteghin, Van Beek
subs: Larsson, Boetius.

Still, Feyenoord faces many defensive problems. Their 3 best central defenders still are injured. Luckily, Jorgensson is still fit and with Larsson, Feyenoord even has an attacking sub, worth playing in CL.

Hopefully coach Van Bronckhorst will adapt with an enforced midfield. He is not known for adapting but it was clear those Brasilians were to good to deal with. But probably Toornstra or Amrabat (I would prefer Vilhena) will be replaced by attacker Larsson.

Feyenoord waited a lot more than that to return to the CL, 15 years, and now are probably wishing they hadn’t.
When they played the CL four times between 1997/1998 and 2002/2003 they were a competitive team that could get 35 points in 30 CL matches (and also go all the way to win the UEFA Cup in 2001/2002). Now they are a harmless team that may not even be able to get a single point.

This has a broader range than just Feyenoord, there are several teams that were competitive 15 years ago and now aren’t anymore. What are the causes for this? CL spots distribution and revenue distribution system?

To win 2002 UEFA cup, Feyenoord over-invested in old players without rest-value. Mostly due to this decision, they faced financial problems for 10 years. That is Dutch financial problems, contrary to Portuguese "no problems" while accumulating €300m. of debt. Only in 2014 Feyenoord managed to work away all their debt, and last 3 years the accumulated €30m surplus.

Before this season, they lost 4 important players: Kongolo, Karsdorp, Kuyt and Elia. Allthough, they have a really talented youth player (Nieuwkoop) and 4 solid buys (St. Juste, Haps, Larsson, Amrabat), it needs a complete season to recover from this. This is the Dutch prize of domestic success and somehow management should find a way to turn around this problem.

So success had it's prize but Feyenoord is really healthy nowadays; they will remain a football institute forever.

[SHEV]

there are several teams that were competitive 15 years ago and now aren’t anymore. What are the causes for this?

Bad management, nothing else.

[Duketown]

But the likes of Valencia, Werder Bremen, Newcastle, Lazio (just to mention one each from UEFA’s four favourite members) were also much bigger back then than they are right now.

Mostly oligarch money:
Lazio: New owner pumping huge money into Roma and Napoli also found more revenue via it's owner.
Valencia: The rise of Atletico and a bad Chinese owner themselves. But Valencia fucked up themselves in the first place.
Werder Bremen: Bundesliga is highly competitive and it's hard to stay ahead. Every year there is another club rising, Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim and now Leipzig. If you don't pay attention, even clubs like Stuttgart, Hannover, Nurnberg can relegate!
Newcastle: Endless bad management.

In general:
All subtop clubs can peak but have more troubles remaining at the top, challenging national powerhouses for a while. All over Europe, those story didn't end well and most of those clubs are toy-clubs nowadays. With all related problems: bad relation between government (often still owning stadium) and Asian owner (cultural differences), owners come in financial problems and de-prioritize their club, etc.

It indeed are all kind of forms of bad management but competitors also play a role and ownership changes within league have huge impact, both positive as negative.

But I don't see a problem; the fall of one is the rise of another. Ofc, Milan and Inter are missed but they fucked up themselves. Now with 2 ownership changes and €2 billion investment, they are again at the start of rebuilding but nowadays clubs like that need to own their stadium to be competitive so another €1.2 billion investments are needed. And a lot of Italian-style politics..

[bugylibicska]

Shakhtar got a terrible draw and on paper they`ve little chance, but I hope they start well vs. Napoli and then we`ll see. And I`m very pleased I`ll be able to watch this game live on Wednesday! 3rd spot should be the minimum, but I`m dreaming of more. They moved their games to Kharkiv, much closer to Donetsk than Lviv, maybe this will help a bit.

The odds to qualifY:

Shakhtar 1.22
Napoli 4.00

Finally Shakhtar have better odds to qualify, but I`m still not convinced. Of course, it`s very pleasing to see them emerging as favourites after been considered so heavy underdogs.

[Dragonite]

Expected results in this group.

Manchester City is already qualified. They’ll win the group if they get more points than Shakhtar Donetsk in round 5, or if they don’t lose in Ukraine round 6 (they can even lose in Ukraine, as long as they win the head-to-head).

Feyenoord is already eliminated. They’ll be surely last if they get fewer points than Napoli in round 5, or if they don’t defeat Napoli at home (and a “simple” win may not be enough, they may also have to win the head-to-head).

If Manchester City defeats Feyenoord, they’ll win 5 CL games in a row for the first time in their history.

As for Feyenoord, they’re already in their biggest CL losing streak in their history, 7 games and counting.
In order to avoid their worst ever CL campaign, they’d have to win their remaining two games.

So, with an invulnerable team and one harmless team in this group, where is the interest in this group?

In the Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Napoli fight for the second spot!

Shakhtar Donetsk is in a great position, 6 points above, but:
If Napoli defeats them in Italy, the advantage will be only 3 points. Which is still safe for Shakhtar Donetsk if it’s 3 points plus head-to-head advantage (2-3 defeat in Italy, for instance). But if it’s 3 points without head-to-head advantage, then Shakhtar Donetsk will be in serious trouble, because… Napoli should win against Feyenoord in round 6. While Shakhtar Donetsk getting something from their home match against Manchester City will be much more difficult, even if Manchester City isn’t full strength.

If Shakhtar Donetsk advances from this group, they’ll restore the reputation that they lost over the last seasons (with a 1-0-5 in their last CL group, plus elimination against Young Boys in the next edition’s qualifiers).

As for Napoli, this is already their worst ever CL campaign. They lost five of their last six CL matches, if it wasn’t for the luck of meeting a team like Feyenoord in this period, this could actually be a lot worse, a winless streak of 6 matches, or even 6 defeats in a row.
They can still reverse this, but it’s no longer in their hands. They need to win twice, and they also need some assistance from Manchester City.

And if they can’t stay in the CL and drop to the EL last 32 instead, they should try to advance a few rounds, something they were never able to do unless Rafael Benítez was in charge.

[bugylibicska]

Shakhtar got a terrible draw and on paper they`ve little chance, but I hope they start well vs. Napoli and then we`ll see. And I`m very pleased I`ll be able to watch this game live on Wednesday! 3rd spot should be the minimum, but I`m dreaming of more. They moved their games to Kharkiv, much closer to Donetsk than Lviv, maybe this will help a bit.

The odds to qualifY:

Shakhtar 1.22
Napoli 4.00

Finally Shakhtar have better odds to qualify, but I`m still not convinced. Of course, it`s very pleasing to see them emerging as favourites after been considered so heavy underdogs.

Shakhtar lost heavily in Naples, so need a point from Man City to advance. They cannot rely on Feyenoord who will probably lose against Napoli and finish with a 0-0-6!

[Duketown]

Shakhtar lost heavily in Naples, so need a point from Man City to advance. They cannot rely on Feyenoord who will probably lose against Napoli and finish with a 0-0-6!

Dutch CL record. Even worse than Willem2 and Heerenveen.

[Dragonite]

Again expected results in this group.

The only surprise was that Manchester City “only” defeated Feyenoord 1-0 with a goal scored in the 88th minute.
If they could only do this at home against the weakest team and playing “seriously” (guys like Mangala and Yaya Touré are still supposed to be good players), what will happen in Ukraine against a much stronger team particularly if Guardiola decides to test the limits of his squad even further and selects players even lower in the pecking order)?

Things aren’t looking good for Napoli, they can defeat Feyenoord 10-0 in Holland and it won’t matter if Manchester City doesn’t defeat Shakhtar Donetsk.


As for Feyenoord, worst CL campaign ever, and they’re also one defeat or even draw away from being Holland’s worst ever too (PSV in 1992/1993 who got a 0-1-5 and -9 goal difference, while Feyenoord is already at -10).
Fortunately Holland won’t have a CL direct spot anymore next season, and will have to go through the qualifiers “quality control” first. If they’re not good enough, they won’t be reaching the group stages anymore.

Some could say that defeating the champions of Azerbaijan and Belarus doesn’t necessarily make them “good enough”. Anyway, I still prefer that over undeserved direct qualification.

Feyenoord was insignificant over the last decade and they still “stole” a CL direct spot, and once there they proved to be unworthy of it with a pitiful result.
Now in the future, because of multiple performances like Feyenoord’s, there will be nothing left to steal, the ones after them will have to work hard to get the privileges that Feyenoord got this time “on a silver platter”.

[FR-Rinaldo]

Again expected results in this group.

The only surprise was that Manchester City “only” defeated Feyenoord 1-0 with a goal scored in the 88th minute.
If they could only do this at home against the weakest team and playing “seriously” (guys like Mangala and Yaya Touré are still supposed to be good players), what will happen in Ukraine against a much stronger team particularly if Guardiola decides to test the limits of his squad even further and selects players even lower in the pecking order)?

Things aren’t looking good for Napoli, they can defeat Feyenoord 10-0 in Holland and it won’t matter if Manchester City doesn’t defeat Shakhtar Donetsk.


As for Feyenoord, worst CL campaign ever, and they’re also one defeat or even draw away from being Holland’s worst ever too (PSV in 1992/1993 who got a 0-1-5 and -9 goal difference, while Feyenoord is already at -10).
Fortunately Holland won’t have a CL direct spot anymore next season, and will have to go through the qualifiers “quality control” first. If they’re not good enough, they won’t be reaching the group stages anymore.

Some could say that defeating the champions of Azerbaijan and Belarus doesn’t necessarily make them “good enough”. Anyway, I still prefer that over undeserved direct qualification.

Feyenoord was insignificant over the last decade and they still “stole” a CL direct spot, and once there they proved to be unworthy of it with a pitiful result.
Now in the future, because of multiple performances like Feyenoord’s, there will be nothing left to steal, the ones after them will have to work hard to get the privileges that Feyenoord got this time “on a silver platter”.

What was undeserved about the qualification of Feyenoord for a direct Champions League Group Stage spot? Feyenoord isn't the only one that underperformed a couple of seasons. I remember a PSV finishing third in an Europa League group with the "mighty" Odessa and Ludogorets in 2013 and Ajax finishing third in an Europa League group in 2015 with the "mighty" Molde winning that group. The "ones" after Feyenoord need to repair some of the damage they created themselves in the past. Good to see they started doing that this season by beating Osijek and Rosenborg . No disrespect to Odessa, Ludogorets, Molde, Osijek and Rosenborg..they won their games fair and fully deserved qualification.

Concerning this group I had some small hopes we could surprise in a few games but after all we didn't deserve to qualify for the next round. Hopefully we can get something from our last match.

[AlanK]

We (Spain ) have had our own of late--Villarreal going 0-0-6 and la Real Sociedad going 0-1-5 Shit happens

[Dragonite]

What was undeserved about the qualification of Feyenoord for a direct Champions League Group Stage spot?

Once upon a time, a family started saving money during the week to buy a 35.65€ cake and eat it during the weekend.

Monday (2012): AZ Alkmaar contributed with 3.7€, PSV with 3.5€, Twente with 3.4€, Ajax with 2.4€, and even tiny ADO Den Haag with 0.6€

Tuesday (2013): Twente contributed with 1.5€, Ajax with 1.29€, PSV with 1€, Vitesse with 0.21€, Heerenveen with 0.14€, Feyenoord with 0.07€, and yesterday’s biggest contributor AZ Alkmaar this time contributed with nothing, 0€.

Wednesday (2014): AZ Alkmaar was once again the biggest contributor with 2.83€, followed by Ajax with 1.67€, PSV with 1.25€, tiny Utrecht and Vitesse with 0.08€ each, and Feyenoord contributed with nothing, 0€

Thursday (2015): Ajax contributed with 2.33€, Feyenoord with 1.75€, PSV with 1.67€, Twente with 0.17€, and tiny Groningen and Zwolle with 0.08€ each

Friday (2016): PSV contributed with 3€, Ajax with 1.33€, AZ Alkmaar with 1€, Groningen with 0.33€, GA Eagles with 0.08€, and Vitesse with nothing, 0€

Total contributions to the 35.65€ cake:
PSV 10.42€ (29,3%), Ajax 9.02€ (25,4%), AZ 7.53€ (21,2%), Twente 5.07€ (14,2%), Feyenoord 1.82€ (5,1%), all the other combined 1.71€ (4,8%)

Saturday they bought the cake.

Sunday the deadbeat that only contributed with 1.82€ (5,1%) ate the cake alone and the rest of the family starved.

Not a very nice story to tell to children, is it?

[Overgame]

What was undeserved about the qualification of Feyenoord for a direct Champions League Group Stage spot?

Once upon a time, a family started saving money during the week to buy a 35.65€ cake and eat it during the weekend.

Monday (2012): AZ Alkmaar contributed with 3.7€, PSV with 3.5€, Twente with 3.4€, Ajax with 2.4€, and even tiny ADO Den Haag with 0.6€

Tuesday (2013): Twente contributed with 1.5€, Ajax with 1.29€, PSV with 1€, Vitesse with 0.21€, Heerenveen with 0.14€, Feyenoord with 0.07€, and yesterday’s biggest contributor AZ Alkmaar this time contributed with nothing, 0€.

Wednesday (2014): AZ Alkmaar was once again the biggest contributor with 2.83€, followed by Ajax with 1.67€, PSV with 1.25€, tiny Utrecht and Vitesse with 0.08€ each, and Feyenoord contributed with nothing, 0€

Thursday (2015): Ajax contributed with 2.33€, Feyenoord with 1.75€, PSV with 1.67€, Twente with 0.17€, and tiny Groningen and Zwolle with 0.08€ each

Friday (2016): PSV contributed with 3€, Ajax with 1.33€, AZ Alkmaar with 1€, Groningen with 0.33€, GA Eagles with 0.08€, and Vitesse with nothing, 0€

Total contributions to the 35.65€ cake:
PSV 10.42€ (29,3%), Ajax 9.02€ (25,4%), AZ 7.53€ (21,2%), Twente 5.07€ (14,2%), Feyenoord 1.82€ (5,1%), all the other combined 1.71€ (4,8%)

Saturday they bought the cake.

Sunday the deadbeat that only contributed with 1.82€ (5,1%) ate the cake alone and the rest of the family starved.

Not a very nice story to tell to children, is it?

Most
stupid
analogy
ever

[Duketown]

What was undeserved about the qualification of Feyenoord for a direct Champions League Group Stage spot?

Once upon a time, a family started saving money during the week to buy a 35.65€ cake and eat it during the weekend.

Monday (2012): AZ Alkmaar contributed with 3.7€, PSV with 3.5€, Twente with 3.4€, Ajax with 2.4€, and even tiny ADO Den Haag with 0.6€

lol, tiny ADO Den Haag is bigger than all clubs in Portugal, except top 3 and Guimares.

Tuesday (2013): Twente contributed with 1.5€, Ajax with 1.29€, PSV with 1€, Vitesse with 0.21€, Heerenveen with 0.14€, Feyenoord with 0.07€, and yesterday’s biggest contributor AZ Alkmaar this time contributed with nothing, 0€.

Wednesday (2014): AZ Alkmaar was once again the biggest contributor with 2.83€, followed by Ajax with 1.67€, PSV with 1.25€, tiny Utrecht and Vitesse with 0.08€ each, and Feyenoord contributed with nothing, 0€

Thursday (2015): Ajax contributed with 2.33€, Feyenoord with 1.75€, PSV with 1.67€, Twente with 0.17€, and tiny Groningen and Zwolle with 0.08€ each

Friday (2016): PSV contributed with 3€, Ajax with 1.33€, AZ Alkmaar with 1€, Groningen with 0.33€, GA Eagles with 0.08€, and Vitesse with nothing, 0€

Total contributions to the 35.65€ cake:
PSV 10.42€ (29,3%), Ajax 9.02€ (25,4%), AZ 7.53€ (21,2%), Twente 5.07€ (14,2%), Feyenoord 1.82€ (5,1%), all the other combined 1.71€ (4,8%)

Saturday they bought the cake.

Sunday the deadbeat that only contributed with 1.82€ (5,1%) ate the cake alone and the rest of the family starved.

Not a very nice story to tell to children, is it?

lol, most stupid analogy ever. Only someone from Portugal can make this up.

For your understanding: a cake is only fresh for 2 month and then a new cake need to be made. Eredivisie made an understanding that those performing best, are the one that are allowed to make a cake. And KNVB is trying it's best to make an equal playing field. In Portugal, top 3 have a contract with the bakkery to deliver a yearly cake.

Here is an idea:
Why not close down Portuguese Football League do Praia and give top 3 clubs a permanent UEFA place. It makes no sense to battle over it anyway since those 3 clubs already "earn" all media income since their TV companies are as crooked as the rest of that country.