WC 2018 Playoffs

[nogomet]

I see Manolas is injured, nice. Getting rid of Sokratis wouldn't hurt as well.

[og2002gr]

As expected we got the most difficult draw.

So Sweden won't play in Russia next summer, and the war in the forum between Croatians and Greeks will reach its climax in the next weeks.

Good draw for Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Which war? I don't think there is any Greek who doesn't respect Croatia.
An anti-greek troll doesn't mean war in the forum

[seso]

Easy draw for Greece, no problem against the Croats!... I always liked their checkerboard kit!
I predict Switzerland, Greece, Denmark, Italy!

[bugylibicska]

Disappointed for Croatia, all the others would have been better than Greece. Lucky Irish got the best draw, I see a chance for them. Italy and Switzerland should qualify without much difficulty.

[nogomet]

N.Ireland - Switzerland 30-70
Croatia - Greece 50-50
Italy - Sweden 60-40
Denmark - Ireland 55-45

[agram]

Greece is traditionally very bad draw for Croatian team(s)
Though Greece has 80% of it's player quality concentrated in defence, while offensive end is limited, it is very strong (physically), tactically well organised, self-confident team, coached by German Michael Skibbe...

On paper, Croatia is 2-3 times better team, having better players (playing for Real, Barcelona, Juventus, Inter, Milan), but green football field is something different.

Croatia lacks of coaching, team atmosphere is 0, fan support below 0, barren offense, unreliable, faltering defence...

Croatia-Greece 45-55----

[Polak]

Amazing. I forgot to write it on here but this was exactly the draw I hoped for.

Why? Because with the exception of a the Italy match, I think each of the other three games are close.

[nogomet]

Belgium's two matches vs Greece are the precise recipe how we should play. An all out attack without holding back, being fully prepared to concede goal(s), but at the same time knowing that we will score more than them because we have more quality. Any kind of a defensive mindset with the fear of conceding is a recipe for disaster. This is their game, you cannot beat them at it.

[Lorric]

It's very, very harsh on Sweden. Either have to beat France and Netherlands or Italy and Netherlands just to qualify. Could be good to watch though!

I'm curious about the Croatia match with all that's been said on here, but player for player it's hard to imagine anything other than Croatia just steamrolling Greece. Owning the midfield and just hammering away for 180 mins. But then I don't watch their matches. Though the new boss seems to have got a performance out of them in Ukraine.

I don't think NI will get past Switzerland. But it's not impossible by any means. The Republic got the draw to get. They can beat Denmark but will still be mild underdogs. They have recent experience of victory in playoffs over Estonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Winning as both seed and unseed.

Italy and Croatia were the teams to avoid. Luck of the Irish.

[THEPOSH]

So Ireland it is.
To be perfectly honest, I haven't been following Ireland too much.
What is the reason for people naming them slight underdogs and not underdogs?
Looking at their squad is not really impressive and their last results even less.
They don't let in a lot of goals, is what I can gather as a real strength, but what else is there?

[kaerin]

Italy got the toughest, Croatia got second toughest. Both N. Irealand and Rep. of Ireland are walking BYEs IMO.

[kaerin]

Sad for Italy really, playing in a very tough group, then drawing the toughest opponent possible. Forza Azzurri! We can make it.

[kaerin]

What do you think of playing first game at home or away situations? Contrary to common belief, I think playing the first match at home is better, the pressure at home in the final game is tremendous.

[Ed]

10.000 simulations, based on Club-Elo's formulas for goals scored in a match, depending on elo home win expectancy.

column 1: match
column 2: home win
column 3: away win
column 4: draw

NIR-SUI - 30,4% - 43,2% - 26,5%
SUI-NIR - 67,0% - 13,7% - 19,3%

NIR qualifies - 22,5%
SUI qualifies - 71,7%
PSO - 5,8%


CRO-GRE - 65,3% - 14,5% - 20,3%
GRE-CRO - 30,5% - 42,3% - 27,2%

CRO qualifies - 70,1%
GRE qualifies - 24,2%
PSO - 5,7%


DEN-IRL - 50,8% - 24,1% - 25,1%
IRL-DEN - 44,0% - 29,1% - 26,9%

DEN qualifies - 50,5%
IRL qualifies - 42,2%
PSO - 7,2%


SWE-ITA - 33,0% - 39,8% - 27,2%
ITA-SWE - 61,1% - 17,4% - 21,5%

SWE qualifies - 28,5%
ITA qualifies - 65,4%
PSO - 6,1%


HON-AUS - 39,2% - 34,0% - 26,9%
AUS-HON - 55,8% - 20,6% - 23,7%

HON qualifies - 35,5%
AUS qualifies - 57,4%
PSO - 7,1%


NZL-PER - 17,9% - 60,0% - 22,2%
PER-NZL - 79,7% - 6,7% - 13,6%

NZL qualifies - 9,4%
PER qualifies - 87,4%
PSO - 3,2%

[THEPOSH]

How far back does the data go?