CL 2018-19 - Round of 16

[og2002gr]

Borussia Dortmund
Barcelona
Paris Saint-Germain
Porto
Bayern München
Manchester City
Real Madrid
Juventus

vs

Atlético Madrid
Tottenham Hotspur
Liverpool
Schalke
Ajax
Lyon
Roma
Manchester United

[max tre]

2 millions simulations

Code: Select all

	        ATM    TOT    LIV    SCH    AJA    LIO    ROM    UTD
	BVB [[  0.    17.58  17.5    0.    13.89  17.55  16.09  17.39 ]
	BAR  [  0.     0.    17.3   18.5   13.64  17.34  15.96  17.25 ]
	PSG  [ 18.53  17.31   0.    18.06  13.42   0.    15.47  17.21 ]
	POR  [ 16.35  14.6   14.63   0.    11.74  14.65  13.49  14.55 ]
	BAY  [ 18.33  16.58  16.67   0.     0.    16.61  15.25  16.55 ]
	MCI  [ 28.27   0.     0.    27.43  20.56   0.    23.74   0.   ]
	RMA  [  0.    17.15  17.04  18.21  13.52  17.02   0.    17.05 ]
	JUV  [ 18.52  16.78  16.85  17.79  13.23  16.83   0.     0.   ]]

Edit: that would probably be more appropriate for the new-Forum1, but I would be interested in the actual computations, if some of you has any idea.

[og2002gr]

According to (one) bet company:

4,50 - Manchester City
6,00 - Barcelona
7,00 - Juventus
8,50 - Paris Saint-Germain
11,00 - Real Madrid
11,00 - Bayern Munchen
11,00 - Liverpool
21,00 - Atletico Madrid
26,00 - Tottenham
34,00 - Dortmund
41,00 - Manchester United
81,00 - Ajax
126,00 - Lyon
126,00 - Porto
151,00 - Roma
200,00 - Schalke

So a "fair" draw could be:

Machester City - Schalke
Barcelona - Roma
Juventus - Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain - Ajax
Real Madrid - Manchester United
Bayern Munchen - Tottenham
Dortmund - Liverpool
Porto - Atletico Madrid

Updated with minor changes in odds that bring changes in pairs.

[og2002gr]

2 millions simulations

Code: Select all

	        ATM    TOT    LIV    SCH    AJA    LIO    ROM    UTD
	BVB [[  0.    17.58  17.5    0.    13.89  17.55  16.09  17.39 ]
	BAR  [  0.     0.    17.3   18.5   13.64  17.34  15.96  17.25 ]
	PSG  [ 18.53  17.31   0.    18.06  13.42   0.    15.47  17.21 ]
	POR  [ 16.35  14.6   14.63   0.    11.74  14.65  13.49  14.55 ]
	BAY  [ 18.33  16.58  16.67   0.     0.    16.61  15.25  16.55 ]
	MCI  [ 28.27   0.     0.    27.43  20.56   0.    23.74   0.   ]
	RMA  [  0.    17.15  17.04  18.21  13.52  17.02   0.    17.05 ]
	JUV  [ 18.52  16.78  16.85  17.79  13.23  16.83   0.     0.   ]]

Edit: that would probably be more appropriate for the new-Forum1, but I would be interested in the actual computations, if some of you has any idea.

Manchester City - Atletico Madrid the most possible
Porto - Ajax the least possible.

[Ricardo]

Ajax has the most chance on drawing City, but City has the least chance on drawing Ajax......

[Ricardo]

og2002gr, which bettingsite is that?
with sports.bwin.com, http://www.10bet.com, http://sports.williamhill.com, http://www.betfair.com,
with all of them Porto is last but one

[FEPG]

As usual, the simulator.

[og2002gr]

Ricardo it is a Greek one.
My international one has no odds yet.
Your links are blocked in my country.
So I used the only available.

[Gorandinho]

I guess the unseeded teams will hope for Porto

[Dragonite]

As usual, the simulator.

These matches would be awesome, but I suppose any possible combination of these teams will always be awesome. No more intruders left, only big boys now.

[bugylibicska]

A fair draw:

Porto - Atletico Madrid
Dortmund - Liverpool
Juventus - Tottenham
Real Madrid - Ajax
Bayern - Lyon
PSG - Roma
Man City - Schalke
Barcelona - MU

[mspm89]

(Former) Libertadores style draw:

(1) Porto v (16) Tottenham
(2) Bayern v (15) Lyon
(3) Barça v (14) Liverpool
(4) City v (13) Roma
(5) Dortmund v (12) United
(6) Real Cheaters v (11) Schalke
(7) Juventus v (10) Ajax
(8) PSG v (9) Atlético

Not what I'd like, but fairly balanced. And no clashes between same-country or same-group teams (which DID often happen in the Libertadores back in the day).

[Firnen]

Until 2013, every year a team outside the top5 leagues knocked out a top5 league team in the Round of 16. The last 5 years, ZERO teams outside top5 leagues have knocked out teams from the top5. ZERO.

The trend is the same about teams outside top5 knocking out top5 teams in groups. We had at least 2-3 every year, and this year it is ZERO, as it was in 2016-17. Last year we had the exception to the rule, Besiktas and Porto getting past Leipzig and Monaco + the only team that consistently gets past top5 teams, Shakhtar (over Napoli).

I had found a detailed excel sheet showing which teams outside top5 knock out top5 teams every year. Porto was doing it every year until 2010 - then their draws were easy every year, Shakhtar is consistent, and Benfica is consistent in...NEVER getting past top5 teams !

The only potential of a non top8 quarterfinalist is Ajax for me this year.

[greenbay]

2 millions simulations

Code: Select all

	        ATM    TOT    LIV    SCH    AJA    LIO    ROM    UTD
	BVB [[  0.    17.58  17.5    0.    13.89  17.55  16.09  17.39 ]
	BAR  [  0.     0.    17.3   18.5   13.64  17.34  15.96  17.25 ]
	PSG  [ 18.53  17.31   0.    18.06  13.42   0.    15.47  17.21 ]
	POR  [ 16.35  14.6   14.63   0.    11.74  14.65  13.49  14.55 ]
	BAY  [ 18.33  16.58  16.67   0.     0.    16.61  15.25  16.55 ]
	MCI  [ 28.27   0.     0.    27.43  20.56   0.    23.74   0.   ]
	RMA  [  0.    17.15  17.04  18.21  13.52  17.02   0.    17.05 ]
	JUV  [ 18.52  16.78  16.85  17.79  13.23  16.83   0.     0.   ]]

Edit: that would probably be more appropriate for the new-Forum1, but I would be interested in the actual computations, if some of you has any idea.

So that's the draw when picking always the most likely pairing left.
28.27 ATM v MCI
18.50 SCH v BAR
17.58 TOT v BVB
17.21 UTD v PSG
17.04 LIV v RMA
16.83 LYO v JUV
15.25 ROM v BAY
13.23 AJA v JUV

[Todor]

2 millions simulations

Code: Select all

	        ATM    TOT    LIV    SCH    AJA    LIO    ROM    UTD
	BVB [[  0.    17.58  17.5    0.    13.89  17.55  16.09  17.39 ]
	BAR  [  0.     0.    17.3   18.5   13.64  17.34  15.96  17.25 ]
	PSG  [ 18.53  17.31   0.    18.06  13.42   0.    15.47  17.21 ]
	POR  [ 16.35  14.6   14.63   0.    11.74  14.65  13.49  14.55 ]
	BAY  [ 18.33  16.58  16.67   0.     0.    16.61  15.25  16.55 ]
	MCI  [ 28.27   0.     0.    27.43  20.56   0.    23.74   0.   ]
	RMA  [  0.    17.15  17.04  18.21  13.52  17.02   0.    17.05 ]
	JUV  [ 18.52  16.78  16.85  17.79  13.23  16.83   0.     0.   ]]

Edit: that would probably be more appropriate for the new-Forum1, but I would be interested in the actual computations, if some of you has any idea.

So that's the draw when picking always the most likely pairing left.
28.27 ATM v MCI
18.50 SCH v BAR
17.58 TOT v BVB
17.21 UTD v PSG
17.04 LIV v RMA
16.83 LYO v JUV
15.25 ROM v BAY
13.23 AJA v JUV

Any idea why City:Atletico is more probable than City:Schalke?