Statistics about European Club Football

[Ed]

Must be a good subject for all you number-lovers

The probabilities (in %) to end on position 1 or 2 in the group (%1-2) or to end on position 3 in the group (%3) after each match day in the CL group stage, depending on the number of points a team has after each match day. Also the number of teams in each cell (N) is given. Compiled over all CL double round robin group stages from the inception in 1992 until last season.

Code: Select all

		MD1			MD2			MD3			MD4			MD5			MD6		
pts	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N
0	29	28	304	8	25	134	2	11	66	0	3	37	0	4	28	0	0	21
1	46	29	216	21	34	154	10	27	113	2	19	64	0	5	38	0	0	21
2				45	36	44	16	40	43	4	24	49	0	13	39	0	3	30
3	74	20	304	53	33	206	24	50	127	7	43	89	0	25	61	0	12	43
4				76	17	150	48	37	126	20	55	104	5	45	74	0	19	53
5							68	25	60	54	36	69	22	57	60	0	43	54
6				92	7	136	81	16	129	56	38	85	25	59	69	4	70	56
7							94	6	85	77	22	101	45	53	95	12	78	78
8										94	6	54	83	17	72	49	51	68
9							100	0	75	96	4	73	88	12	75	67	33	61
10										98	2	65	95	5	74	87	13	83
11													100	0	38	100	0	58
12										100	0	34	100	0	42	98	2	59
13													100	0	42	100	0	62
14																100	0	26
15													100	0	17	100	0	25
16																100	0	20
18																100	0	6
tot			824			824			824			824			824			824

A division on teams ranked inside or outside the top 16 in the concerning 5-years UEFA team ranking:

Inside the top 16:

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		MD1			MD2			MD3			MD4			MD5			MD6		
pts	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N
0	65	15	65	19	19	16	0	0	6	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
1	72	18	89	48	24	29	25	33	12	0	17	6	0	0	2	0	0	1
2				61	33	18	10	60	10	11	44	9	0	25	4	0	33	3
3	90	8	190	79	18	78	48	35	31	13	50	16	0	50	4	0	0	1
4				85	11	95	68	24	50	27	50	26	8	17	12	0	0	2
5							76	17	29	76	19	21	27	53	15	0	21	14
6				98	2	108	96	4	71	82	15	33	38	43	21	0	70	10
7							99	1	68	90	9	58	58	39	38	10	70	20
8										97	3	37	94	6	32	52	48	21
9							100	0	67	100	0	52	96	4	45	84	16	25
10										98	2	53	98	2	58	94	6	53
11													100	0	26	100	0	35
12										100	0	32	100	0	33	100	0	38
13													100	0	37	100	0	51
14																100	0	24
15													100	0	16	100	0	22
16																100	0	18
18																100	0	5
tot			344			344			344			344			344			344

Outside the top 16:

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		MD1			MD2			MD3			MD4			MD5			MD6		
pts	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N
0	19	31	239	7	25	118	2	12	60	0	3	36	0	4	27	0	0	20
1	28	36	127	14	37	125	8	27	101	2	19	58	0	6	36	0	0	20
2				35	38	26	18	33	33	3	20	40	0	11	35	0	0	27
3	46	39	114	38	43	128	17	54	96	5	41	73	0	23	57	0	12	42
4				60	27	55	36	46	76	18	56	78	5	50	62	0	20	51
5							61	32	31	44	44	48	20	58	45	0	50	40
6				68	29	28	64	31	58	40	52	52	19	67	48	4	70	46
7							76	24	17	60	40	43	37	61	57	12	81	58
8										88	12	17	75	25	40	47	53	47
9							100	0	8	86	14	21	77	23	30	56	44	36
10										100	0	12	81	19	16	73	27	30
11													100	0	12	100	0	23
12										100	0	2	100	0	9	95	5	21
13													100	0	5	100	0	11
14																100	0	2
15													100	0	1	100	0	3
16																100	0	2
18																100	0	1
tot			480			480			480			480			480			480

And a division on teams of countries ranked inside or outside the top 5 in the concerning 5-years UEFA country ranking:

Inside the top 5:

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		MD1			MD2			MD3			MD4			MD5			MD6		
pts	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N
0	53	25	109	23	23	35	8	8	13	0	0	4	0	0	3	0	0	2
1	62	25	110	33	39	46	16	36	25	0	20	10	0	0	5	0	0	3
2				64	32	25	30	40	20	9	27	11	0	14	7	0	14	7
3	87	11	212	69	28	107	39	51	49	18	46	28	0	38	13	0	14	7
4				84	12	104	61	32	57	23	60	40	12	41	17	0	50	4
5							71	21	42	67	25	36	26	52	23	0	25	16
6				97	3	114	93	7	88	72	26	47	39	45	31	6	61	18
7							96	4	69	81	18	67	40	58	52	9	79	34
8										95	5	41	89	11	47	40	60	35
9							100	0	68	98	2	59	94	6	52	86	14	36
10										98	2	58	97	3	61	89	11	55
11													100	0	31	100	0	41
12										100	0	30	100	0	37	98	2	47
13													100	0	38	100	0	58
14																100	0	24
15													100	0	14	100	0	21
16																100	0	18
18																100	0	5
tot			431			431			431			431			431			431

Outside the top 5:

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		MD1			MD2			MD3			MD4			MD5			MD6		
pts	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N	%1-2	%3	N
0	15	29	195	3	25	99	0	11	53	0	3	33	0	4	25	0	0	19
1	30	32	106	16	32	108	8	25	88	2	19	54	0	6	33	0	0	18
2				21	42	19	4	39	23	3	24	38	0	13	32	0	0	23
3	42	39	92	36	39	99	15	49	78	2	41	61	0	21	48	0	11	36
4				59	28	46	38	42	69	19	52	64	4	46	57	0	16	49
5							61	33	18	39	48	33	19	59	37	0	50	38
6				64	32	22	56	37	41	37	53	38	13	71	38	3	74	38
7							88	13	16	71	29	34	51	47	43	14	77	44
8										92	8	13	72	28	25	58	42	33
9							100	0	7	86	14	14	74	26	23	40	60	25
10										100	0	7	85	15	13	82	18	28
11													100	0	7	100	0	17
12										100	0	4	100	0	5	100	0	12
13													100	0	4	100	0	4
14																100	0	2
15													100	0	3	100	0	4
16																100	0	2
18																100	0	1
tot			393			393			393			393			393			393

[Ed]

The probabilities (in %) to end on position 1 or 2 in the group (%1-2) after each match day in the EL group stage, depending on the number of points a team has after each match day. Also the number of teams in each cell (N) is given. Compiled over all EL double round robin group stages from the inception in 2010 until last season.

Code: Select all

	MD1		MD2		MD3		MD4		MD5		MD6	
pts	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N
0	22	171	7	68	0	28	0	17	0	15	0	4
1	53	138	22	92	5	66	0	39	0	25	0	16
2			46	37	16	37	3	33	0	21	0	14
3	75	171	49	123	29	78	9	56	0	39	0	33
4			78	92	49	78	22	64	8	49	0	34
5					79	43	42	36	10	39	0	40
6			97	68	79	61	71	45	32	37	0	37
7					98	51	76	59	53	53	14	43
8							98	44	91	35	64	28
9					100	38	94	32	88	41	81	37
10							100	33	95	37	81	42
11									100	30	100	37
12							100	22	100	21	100	42
13									100	24	100	28
14											100	14
15									100	14	100	10
16											100	11
18											100	10
tot		480		480		480		480		480		480

A division on teams ranked inside or outside the top 32 in the concerning 5-years UEFA team ranking:

Inside the top 32:

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	MD1		MD2		MD3		MD4		MD5		MD6	
pts	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N
0	75	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	79	24	33	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
2			78	9	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0
3	98	49	85	20	75	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
4			90	21	60	10	0	2	0	1	0	0
5					92	13	33	3	0	1	0	2
6			100	32	100	17	100	9	33	3	0	0
7					95	19	77	13	43	7	0	5
8							100	15	100	4	67	3
9					100	20	100	14	100	11	100	2
10							100	16	100	15	89	9
11									100	14	100	13
12							100	11	100	8	100	12
13									100	11	100	15
14											100	7
15									100	9	100	4
16											100	8
18											100	5
tot		85		85		85		85		85		85

Outside the top 32:

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	MD1		MD2		MD3		MD4		MD5		MD6	
pts	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N
0	18	159	7	68	0	28	0	17	0	15	0	4
1	47	114	21	89	5	65	0	39	0	25	0	16
2			36	28	17	36	3	32	0	20	0	14
3	66	122	42	103	27	74	9	55	0	39	0	33
4			75	71	47	68	23	62	8	48	0	34
5					73	30	42	33	11	38	0	38
6			94	36	70	44	64	36	32	34	0	37
7					100	32	76	46	54	46	16	38
8							97	29	90	31	64	25
9					100	18	89	18	83	30	80	35
10							100	17	91	22	79	33
11									100	16	100	24
12							100	11	100	13	100	30
13									100	13	100	13
14											100	7
15									100	5	100	6
16											100	3
18											100	5
tot		395		395		395		395		395		395

And a division on teams of countries ranked inside or outside the top 5 in the concerning 5-years UEFA country ranking:

Inside the top 5:

Code: Select all

	MD1		MD2		MD3		MD4		MD5		MD6	
pts	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N
0	43	30	14	7	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	69	45	38	21	11	9	0	6	0	3	0	1
2			89	9	43	7	0	4	0	2	0	0
3	85	59	67	30	56	16	25	8	0	4	0	3
4			78	40	39	18	20	10	11	9	0	3
5					90	20	57	14	13	8	0	11
6			96	27	82	22	83	18	45	11	0	7
7					96	25	63	19	53	17	14	7
8							100	23	92	12	57	7
9					100	14	100	12	100	17	87	15
10							100	12	93	15	79	19
11									100	16	100	16
12							100	8	100	8	100	16
13									100	7	100	15
14											100	4
15									100	5	100	3
16											100	4
18											100	3
tot		134		134		134		134		134		134

Outside the top 5:

Code: Select all

	MD1		MD2		MD3		MD4		MD5		MD6	
pts	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N	%1-2	N
0	18	141	7	61	0	25	0	17	0	15	0	4
1	45	93	17	71	4	57	0	33	0	22	0	15
2			32	28	10	30	3	29	0	19	0	14
3	71	112	43	93	23	62	6	48	0	35	0	30
4			79	52	52	60	22	54	8	40	0	31
5					70	23	32	22	10	31	0	29
6			98	41	77	39	63	27	27	26	0	30
7					100	26	83	40	53	36	14	36
8							95	21	91	23	67	21
9					100	24	90	20	79	24	77	22
10							100	21	95	22	83	23
11									100	14	100	21
12							100	14	100	13	100	26
13									100	17	100	13
14											100	10
15									100	9	100	7
16											100	7
18											100	7
tot		346		346		346		346		346		346

[ultra2013]

Therefore, probabilities of Bundesliga teams playing in spring as of today:

Bayern: 100%
Leipzig: 97%
Dortmund: 85%
Eintracht: 79%
Wolfsburg: 79%
Gladbach: 16%
Leverkusen: 13%

Five teams, that is.

[Ed]

Isn't Gladbach a team from a top 5 country ? I would say 43% chance to progress

[SimonB]

That is good work ed.

I think that it does clearly demonstrate that you need to look at the kind of team that is on x points after n match days to assess its chances.

It would be interesting to see a ranking split into equal halves by number of teams e.g. pot 1/2 versus pot 3/4 so that the percentages are directly comparable in each half. (Or even split 4 ways for each pot!)

Following the work of og2002gr last season it might be even more accurate to see the division by elo value as that has a greater predictive value, although of course that might be very time consuming to do as all the past values would need to be looked up.

The other scenarios that would affect things but be very awkward to take into account would be the points distribution, for example after MD3 the chances of passing a group that stands at 9-3-3-3 is probably different to one that stands at 6-6-3-3, and after for example MD4 it probably also depends on whether you have already played the pot 1 team twice or the pot 4 team twice.

[SimonB]

We have seem after MD4 an example of why we can't just take the values from these tables for individual teams.

Going back to the example that we were looking at before this became a separate topic at the end of MD3 we would have (incorrectly) read 8% for the chance of Atalanta to progress from its group, at the end of MD4 we see that it has fallen to 0%.

In reality of course we know that something a bit closer to the opposite has happened now that we can compute exactly what has to happen in order to qualify.

[Dragonite]

SimonB,

The table says that a team with a 0-0-3 has a 2% chance to finish top 2.
And it says that a team with a 0-1-3 also has a 2% chance to finish top 2.

Exactly what makes you think that Atalanta's chances improved from MD3 to MD4?
They still have the same disadvantage to Shakhtar and Dinamo, but now they only have 2 games left to recover it instead of 3.

[SimonB]

SimonB,

The table says that a team with a 0-0-3 has a 2% chance to finish top 2.
And it says that a team with a 0-1-3 also has a 2% chance to finish top 2.

Exactly what makes you think that Atalanta's chances improved from MD3 to MD4?
They still have the same disadvantage to Shakhtar and Dinamo, but now they only have 2 games left to recover it instead of 3.

In the example above that you refer to I was reading from his sub-division of from the top 5 countries in that instance, but you can never do it anyway with the whole table or any sub-division and the table doesn't say this either, you are miss-reading it. The table says that on average all teams that have x points after n match days, a certain % of them have qualified.

]It doesn't say that my specifically chosen team has this % chance to advance if it has x points after n match days, otherwise Porto and Dudelange who both had 3 points after 2 matches in the EL would both stand the same chance to advance from their group at that time and you surely don't believe that do you?

At the beginning of matchday zero all teams didn't stand the same chance of progressing in the EL even though on average 50% of them would advance which is what this table would say if we extrapolated back to that time, it doesn't suddenly become true when you get to the end of MD1 (Real Madrid and Genk would then stand the same chance to progress at this stage!) or any other MD.

[Ed]

Simon, Dragonite, of course the tables give only average probabilities over all teams that had x points after MD y. If you want to split it so that it says something about a certain team then you (or I in this case) got to split the total population into so many subcategories that the N for each cell will drop to levels that are not representative anymore. In that case you can better plot the events of each separate team in CL-group history in a very long table. And even then you probably won't find the exact circumstances to make a meaningful estimate of Atalanta's chances in the specific situation they are in now.

So please, use it for what it is: average chances, nothing more, nothing less.

But SImon, I'm curious: how would you quantify the probabilities for Atalanta in their situation ?

[SimonB]

Simon, Dragonite, of course the tables give only average probabilities over all teams that had x points after MD y. If you want to split it so that it says something about a certain team then you (or I in this case) got to split the total population into so many subcategories that the N for each cell will drop to levels that are not representative anymore. In that case you can better plot the events of each separate team in CL-group history in a very long table. And even then you probably won't find the exact circumstances to make a meaningful estimate of Atalanta's chances in the specific situation they are in now.

So please, use it for what it is: average chances, nothing more, nothing less.

Yes, thank you ed, I see it, but I am not sure that Ultra2013, possibly Dragonite (?), and some others see it, which is why I expanded on some specific examples to show that it can't be used in that way, and indeed that splitting it doesn't always guarantee an improvement either.

Regarding the chance for Atalanta, I realise that I didn't say why I thought that the chances for them have improved. It is mainly due to the draw between the other two teams, now Atalanta doesn't have to beat either team on a head to head, they "only" have to win their other two games and hope that neither of the other two beat Manchester City. Still a small chance, but a slightly better one now in my opinion.

[bugylibicska]

If you put Man City into Atalanta's shoes nobody would question their chances to advance. Even betting companies would recognize that.

[Dragonite]

I wanted to know the number of teams, N, with X points after Y rounds, and how many of them ended up progressing to the next stage, Z.

Ed's tables are perfect for my need.


To me it's clear, regardless of what Ed's tables show, that Atalanta's chances to progress DECREASED after this round - before they had to recover a disadvantage of 4 points (x2) and they had 270' to do it; now they still have to recover the SAME disadvantage but they only have 180' to do it (and unless they reduce it in the next 90' it's already game over).

[ultra2013]

Probabilities of Bundesliga teams playing in Spring as of today:

Bayern: 100%
Leipzig: 100%
Dortmund: 99%
Eintracht: 71%
Leverkusen: 50%
Wolfsburg: 42%
Gladbach: 42%

Four teams, that is.

[bugylibicska]

I wanted to know the number of teams, N, with X points after Y rounds, and how many of them ended up progressing to the next stage, Z.

Ed's tables are perfect for my need.


To me it's clear, regardless of what Ed's tables show, that Atalanta's chances to progress DECREASED after this round - before they had to recover a disadvantage of 4 points (x2) and they had 270' to do it; now they still have to recover the SAME disadvantage but they only have 180' to do it (and unless they reduce it in the next 90' it's already game over).

Baloney. Before the 4th round Atalanta had miniscule chances compared to now after the 4th round. They were the underdogs - odds stacked heavily against them - against City. If they lose and either Dinamo or Shakhtar win they out. They'd some chance to get a point, still if either Dinamo or Shakhtar win they surely need a miraculous escape to overcome the H2H. They'd have needed a win to have any realistic chance. They got a point and luckily for them the other game ended in sharing the points. Now their fate is in their own hands (almost), not like before. If they're able to beat both Dinamo and Shakhtar and those 2 not able to beat City the 2nd spot is theirs. Their chances increased dramatically.
Just checked William Hill, now it's 4.5 (Shakhtar 1.5 and Dinamo 4.33) before it was 17 (Shakhtar had 1.5 and Dinamo 2.5). They must be fucking stupid?

[Dragonite]

Now their fate is in their own hands (almost), not like before. If they're able to beat both Dinamo and Shakhtar and those 2 not able to beat City the 2nd spot is theirs.

Reread what you wrote there.

You wrote two contradictory statements.

"Their fate is in their own hands" = "if they win their two games they'll SURELY advance regardless of the results in the two parallel games"

When you feel the need to add "and they need something from the two parallel games" ==> Their fate is NOT in their own hands.


I don't need Billy Hill's odds or anyone else's to tell me what to think. According to Billy Hill's odds Atalanta should already have a lot more than 1 point by now, shouldn't they? So if until now Billy Hill's odds failed tremendously in Atalanta's case, what makes you think that from now onwards they won't anymore?