CLGS matchday 5

[bugylibicska]

Odds for the 5th round:

Galatasaray - Club Brugge 2.5 3.4 2.7
Lokomotiv Moskva - Leverkusen 3.5 3.5 2.05
Crvena zvezda - Bayern 8.5 5.8 1.3
Real Madrid - PSG 2.3 3.7 2.8
Tottenham - Olympiakos 1.32 5.0 9.5
Atalanta - Dinamo Zagreb 1.6 4.2 5.0
Man City - Shakhtar 1.14 8.0 17.0
Juventus - Atletico 2.0 3.25 4.0
Zenit - Lyon 2.4 3.5 2.8
Valencia - Chelsea 3.0 3.5 2.25
Genk - Salzburg 4.2 4.33 1.7
Liverpool - Napoli 1.52 4.4 5.8
Barcelona - Dortmund 1.63 4.2 4.8
Slavia Praha - Inter 3.0 3.3 2.35
Leipzig - Benfica 1.5 4.4 6.0
Lille - Ajax 3.75 3.8 1.88

[SimonB]

Odds for the 5th round:

Galatasaray - Club Brugge 2.5 3.4 2.7
Lokomotiv Moskva - Leverkusen 3.5 3.5 2.05
Crvena zvezda - Bayern 8.5 5.8 1.3
Real Madrid - PSG 2.3 3.7 2.8
Tottenham - Olympiakos 1.32 5.0 9.5
Atalanta - Dinamo Zagreb 1.6 4.2 5.0
Man City - Shakhtar 1.14 8.0 17.0
Juventus - Atletico 2.0 3.25 4.0
Zenit - Lyon 2.4 3.5 2.8
Valencia - Chelsea 3.0 3.5 2.25
Genk - Salzburg 4.2 4.33 1.7
Liverpool - Napoli 1.52 4.4 5.8
Barcelona - Dortmund 1.63 4.2 4.8
Slavia Praha - Inter 3.0 3.3 2.35
Leipzig - Benfica 1.5 4.4 6.0
Lille - Ajax 3.75 3.8 1.88

There must be some big error in at least 2 of those, surely it has to be more like:_

Atalanta - Dinamo Zagreb 5.0 4.2 1.6

and

Man City - Shakhtar 2.4 3.5 2.8

otherwise Dragonite will be really struggling to meet his unaltered target of a 2% chance for Atalanta to progress

[Dragonite]

SimonB,

Atalanta - Shakhtar first then Lokomotiv - Atletico later tomorrow. Now the odds:

Real Madrid - Club Brugge 1.24 6.0 11.0
Atalanta - Shakhtar 1.75 3.9 4.33
Galatasaray - PSG 9.0 5.0 1.33
Tottenham - Bayern 3.2 3.7 2.1
Man City - Dinamo Zagreb 1.05 12.0 36.0
Juventus - Leverkusen 1.5 4.0 7.0
Lokomotiv Moskva - Atletico Madrid 6.0 3.6 1.61
Crvena Zvezda - Olympiakos 3.0 3.3 2.35
Genk - Napoli 7.0 4.75 1.42
Slavia Praha - Dortmund 4.0 3.7 1.85
Zenit - Benfica 2.3 3.3 3.1
Barcelona - Inter 1.57 4.2 5.5
Liverpool - Salzburg 1.28 5.8 9.5
Leipzig - Lyon 1.6 4.33 5.0
Valencia - Ajax 2.5 3.4 2.7
Lille - Chelsea 3.6 3.4 2.05

That was posted for round 2, it's a pity that I can't find it for round 1 too.

Instead of making fun of "team with 4 points disadvantage (x2) and three games left now still has the SAME 4 points disadvantage (x2) but only two games left, so their chances to catch anyone DECREASED", why don't you make fun of that Billy Hill's numbers for round 2 (and 1)?

[SimonB]

There was a roughly 70% chance that the Shaktar-Dinamo game would not result in a draw as would be the case between most where there is not a really huge difference in standard.

If either team had won this then Atalanta would now have to win both games, Manchester City would not even be allowed to drop a point against the winner and Atalanta would also have to win a H2H, which would have been very difficult had the winner been Dinamo! This is why their chances have increased. They also don't have to play any more matches against the pot1 team whereas the other two still have that to come.

Perhaps Galatasaray, Olympiakos, Genk( ), and Lille all stand a 2% chance to qualify, or wouid you concede that some of them have different chances to others

[bugylibicska]

Well, it's coming...Last chance saloon for the Russians to salvage something from their insofar disastrous campaign. Lokomotiv need a point against Leverkusen to have any chance for 3rd place and continue in the EL. Zenit should win against Lyon to maintain their chance to qualify and avoid finishing last in their group. Both games start early, from the other games I'll go for Atalanta - Dinamo Zagreb on Tuesday and Slavia Praha - Inter on Wednesday.

[seso]

Juventus vs Atletico Madrid and Liverpool vs Napoli for me! Great clubs!

Slavia Prague vs Inter Milan is very interesting; Inter needs to win!

[babaluj1]

Many interesting matches, Red Star-Bayern, Real Madrid-PSG, Zenit-Lyon, Barcelona -Borusia Dortmund, and I expect the biggest fight at Atalanta-Dinamo and Slavia-Inter. There could be a lot of card. Even the red ones.
 

[Overgame]

There was a roughly 70% chance that the Shaktar-Dinamo game would not result in a draw as would be the case between most where there is not a really huge difference in standard.

He claims to "know some math" but doesn't understand basic probability.

Example:
Two games to go. Team A is second, behind team B, who has an advantage of 2 points. First game:
Team A plays away against Team C, third and unbeaten at home.
Team D plays at home against team Z, last with no away win.
Second game: Team A plays against Team B at home.

If he doesn't understand that the probability of winning the title, for Team A, increases if both team win, we cannot help him.

[nogomet]

A point is badly needed by Dinamo tonight to secure an EL-R32 ticket. It wouldn't be good to leave it until last MD. Although City should come to Zagreb with a reserve squad (provided they do their job tonight), it is never good to go into the game against such an opponent risking total elimination in case of a defeat.

A draw at San Siro should also leave Atalanta in the hunt for an EL ticket vs Shakhtar, so the second place would also not be out of Dinamo's reach even with 0/1 points in the last MD.

Bjelica won 5 points in a difficult CL group with a limited Austria Wien team back in 2013. Can he go one step further this time?

[matt]

I'm not optimistic for tonight (Atalanta). Dinamo Zagreb is a team tha could exploit the spaces left by Atalanta.

[kleber]

So the russian clubs will play under uefa name and flag?

[Forza AZ]

So the russian clubs will play under uefa name and flag?

What do you mean? Russian football isn't suspended are they?

[BurningStorm]

Almost a meaningless game for Bayern as the group win is 95% safe, but it'd be nice to win all 6 games.

Very important game for Leverkusen. Losing at Lok would be the elimination even for the EL. A draw would be annoying, but then they have the chance to get at least a point against Juventus (who should be group winner after playing Atletico at home), while Lok have to travel to a motivated Atletico team. The best and most uncomplicated thing is a simple away win. The problem is: Leverkusen hate doing uncomplicated things...

[Michael S Collins]

Galatasaray Club Brugge KV 1-0
17:55 Lokomotiv Moscow Bayer Leverkusen 2-1
20:00 Atalanta D. Zagreb 1-2
20:00 FK Crvena zvezda Bayern Munich 0-2
20:00 Juventus Atl. Madrid 1-0
20:00 Manchester City Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0
20:00 Real Madrid Paris SG 3-0
20:00 Tottenham Olympiacos Piraeus 3-0

[greenbay]

Just came along Piccadilly. Several hundreds of Olympiacos supporters are singing like they were 2-0 up alredy.