COVID-19

[EarlofBug]

update: 577,899 got the 3rd dose I do not approve this method of conduct, as I think it is better to give 1st and 2nd doses to people from other countries that were not vaccinated.

About the serious and critical cases, among vaccinated and non-vaccinated, I agree that my previous post suffered from lack of details, and thus fall in the Simpson's paradox.

I will try to give more details now. Serious and critical cases above 60 y.o: 218 vaccinated, 89 non-vaccinated (vaccinated means with at least two doses). 71% of the serious and critical cases above 60 y.o were vaccinated with at least 2 doses.

Serious and critical cases below 60 years old: 22 vaccinated, 53 not vaccinated (vaccinated means with at least two doses). 29% of the serious and critical cases below 60 y.o were vaccinated (with 2 doses).
total: 382 seriously ill (in Israel), from those 240 (63%) were vaccinated with at least 2 doses.

[Overgame]

update: 577,899 got the 3rd dose I do not approve this method of conduct, as I think it is better to give 1st and 2nd doses to people from other countries that were not vaccinated.

About the serious and critical cases, among vaccinated and non-vaccinated, I agree that my previous post suffered from lack of details, and thus fall in the Simpson's paradox.

I will try to give more details now. Serious and critical cases above 60 y.o: 218 vaccinated, 89 non-vaccinated (vaccinated means with at least two doses). 71% of the serious and critical cases above 60 y.o were vaccinated with at least 2 doses.

Serious and critical cases below 60 years old: 22 vaccinated, 53 not vaccinated (vaccinated means with at least two doses). 29% of the serious and critical cases below 60 y.o were vaccinated (with 2 doses).
total: 382 seriously ill (in Israel), from those 240 (63%) were vaccinated with at least 2 doses.

I agree, a 3rd doseis most probably useless.
For the group age:



The 70-79 "one dose" is odd, but the others seem to indicate something like 80% efficiency.

[EarlofBug]

The discrepancy between these collumns and the absolute numbers are weird. I get that most of the population over 70+ years old were vaccinated, but as we go lower, the numbers should be more equal. At about 40 years old and lower, I'm assuming that there are more not vaccinated people than vaccinated.

[Overgame]

The discrepancy between these collumns and the absolute numbers are weird. I get that most of the population over 70+ years old were vaccinated, but as we go lower, the numbers should be more equal. At about 40 years old and lower, I'm assuming that there are more not vaccinated people than vaccinated.

This is "per 100K".
Example: 70-79 one dose is roughly 50.
50 = number of cases with one dose between 70 and 79/number of people with one dose between 70 and 79

[EarlofBug]

I heard that there's a big increase in heart attacks rate in 2021. Unfortunately, I can't find reliable confirmation of this.
If governments would make an open database of complaints about side effects from the vaccines, that will make the public less suspicious and more receptive.

[scpgt]

well if we would have a control population, no vaccine no exposure to the coranavirus before hand

They should have done this during the trials. If you need now an entire population of a country as control group, then its experiments on humans, and you arent allow to do this, according to Nuremberg code

well if from all I wrote this is your conclusion it's pretty clear what kind of people I am talking to. Like every conspiracy theory fan, you just pick out an of context phrases from me in order to push some idea you already had planed to deliver like the Nuremberg code.

You are the one talking about 'needing a control population'. You do that when you test a new drug. If your drug is free for broad use, you dont need any control group/population anymore, because if you do, then its still in test phase (=experimental). Actually, its well-known that all that covid vaccines are still experimental until end of 2023. Or...have you heard at any other vaccine in the past anyone talking about needing a control population to understand the numbers when those numbers arent that good, rising questions about the effectiveness?

About the serious and critical cases, among vaccinated and non-vaccinated, I agree that my previous post suffered from lack of details, and thus fall in the Simpson's paradox.

I will try to give more details now. Serious and critical cases above 60 y.o: 218 vaccinated, 89 non-vaccinated (vaccinated means with at least two doses). 71% of the serious and critical cases above 60 y.o were vaccinated with at least 2 doses.

Serious and critical cases below 60 years old: 22 vaccinated, 53 not vaccinated (vaccinated means with at least two doses). 29% of the serious and critical cases below 60 y.o were vaccinated (with 2 doses).
total: 382 seriously ill (in Israel), from those 240 (63%) were vaccinated with at least 2 doses.

Dont listen to that smarty-pants clown of a troll, with his salad of numbers and alleged 'confounding factor'. He wants to make the point about Simpson paradox in order to avoid any talk about the failure of that vaccine. If you have that many vaccinated people among those in serious/critical condition, then its a sign that this vaccine maybe doesnt work as it should do.
In a scientific approach you take in consideration all possible factors/aspects. I mentioned some of them which could be the reason why you have that bad numbers in Israel among those who are fully-vaccinated. I would mention another one: the antibodies last for about 6-8 months only. So, among those who have been vaccinated jan/feb there are people who dont have antibodies anymore jul/aug.
So, the fact that the vaccine is experimental, totally new technique for Moderna and Pfizer (nobody knows how good it is), high mutation rates of the virus and short life of antibodies could be the reasons why there are that many fully-vaccinated among those in serious condition (actually there should be very few, single digit, maybe 10 maximum 20, if the vaccine would work as it should do).
Invoking Simpsons paradox is just a pretext to deflect from the real aspects/factors which explain the failure of that vaccine

Please, your life is important, don't listen to trolls like this one, get the jab and don't die just because you listened to an uneducated troll.

how pathetic!
Come on, put a salad of numbers again, trying to explain why its ok to have that many fully-vaccinated who get seriously ill and even die, claiming victory in the end as you are the owner of the truth
Btw, why should they get vaccinated if you can get seriously ill even if fully-vaccinated?
Have you checked these numbers?
active cases worldwide - 16.349.404
mild condition (like a flu) - 16.439.744 (99,4%)
serious/critical - 100.660 (0,6%)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
get your facts right before advertising for an experimental vaccine !
And your justification for mass vaccination using 'confounding factor' you can do when you vaccinate your cattle

I don't know about the level of education of scpgt, but I might have seen his team play football. They play without a goalkeeper because they only save about 90% of the shots anyway and they sometimes get injured which is all of the proof that you need that they don't work

My niece who has recently graduated with a Phd in medical sciences has chosen to take the jab herself, so she clearly believes the science over the prejudicial alarmists.

I will not go on that low level, to talk about your person in order to discredit whatever you would have to say about this issue (until now, nothing)
And your niece isnt the rule for all PhDs in the world. "oh, I know someone who did it, so this should be the rule"
In many countries there are percentage around 50% among docs and other hospital staff who refuse to take the vaccine, in some countries even above 50%, and they arent any newbies, like your niece...

[Overgame]

I heard that there's a big increase in heart attacks rate in 2021. Unfortunately, I can't find reliable confirmation of this.
If governments would make an open database of complaints about side effects from the vaccines, that will make the public less suspicious and more receptive.

There are, VAERS in the US and adrreports in the EU. But nothing is verified, there are about 1000 pregnancies in these databases.

[scpgt]

I heard that there's a big increase in heart attacks rate in 2021. Unfortunately, I can't find reliable confirmation of this.
If governments would make an open database of complaints about side effects from the vaccines, that will make the public less suspicious and more receptive.

As you claimed to be from Israel, you should know already these news:

Israel reports link between rare cases of heart inflammation and COVID-19 vaccination in young men
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06 ... accination

"An official Israeli report released Tuesday [Jun 1st] found a striking correlation between COVID-19 mRNA vaccinations and a spike in cases of a heart-inflammation condition in young males, which appears likely to lead the country to revisit its recommendation that children receive two doses of the vaccine."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/06 ... ccine.html

and so on (there have been many news like that past 2 or 3 months)
Or...do you test this troll here with his SImpsons paradox, if he is getting his facts right?

[EarlofBug]

I heard that there's a big increase in heart attacks rate in 2021. Unfortunately, I can't find reliable confirmation of this.
If governments would make an open database of complaints about side effects from the vaccines, that will make the public less suspicious and more receptive.

There are, VAERS in the US and adrreports in the EU. But nothing is verified, there are about 1000 pregnancies in these databases.

But there isn't a serious analysis of this...

[Overgame]

I heard that there's a big increase in heart attacks rate in 2021. Unfortunately, I can't find reliable confirmation of this.
If governments would make an open database of complaints about side effects from the vaccines, that will make the public less suspicious and more receptive.

There are, VAERS in the US and adrreports in the EU. But nothing is verified, there are about 1000 pregnancies in these databases.

But there isn't a serious analysis of this...

Yes, but we are not living in "CSI", we cannot know the cause of heart failure or a blood coth, we can only observe it. So how do we know? We check their incidence, i.e. if for 100K people there are (in average) 10 heart failures per year, you compare the vaccinated group (with a stratification to limit the confounding factors).

The 3rd phase of a vaccine is testing the side effects for a few months (foor covid-19 they extended it until 2023, to check if there are rare side effects) and the 4th phase is the goal of VAERS and adrreports. But it takes time to get a sample large enough to notice a difference (for rare side effects).

Let's use the example given by the troll. Oh by the way it shows that he doesn't have any scientific background since he is sharing a popular science article while there are official reports available.

USA

Page 17.

Oh, this is consistent with other vaccines for other diseases (page 21).

[EarlofBug]

Dont listen to that smarty-pants clown of a troll, with his salad of numbers and alleged 'confounding factor'. He wants to make the point about Simpson paradox in order to avoid any talk about the failure of that vaccine. If you have that many vaccinated people among those in serious/critical condition, then its a sign that this vaccine maybe doesnt work as it should do.

They didn't promise us that the new vaccines will give a 100% immunity against the virus.
The question is - how do you measure the effectiveness of a vaccine, and what level would you consider as 'effective'?
If a vaccine decreases the chance for an infected person to be sick by 50%, is it effective for you? Are levels below 50% considered 'effective'?

[scpgt]

Dont listen to that smarty-pants clown of a troll, with his salad of numbers and alleged 'confounding factor'. He wants to make the point about Simpson paradox in order to avoid any talk about the failure of that vaccine. If you have that many vaccinated people among those in serious/critical condition, then its a sign that this vaccine maybe doesnt work as it should do.

They didn't promise us that the new vaccines will give a 100% immunity against the virus.
The question is - how do you measure the effectiveness of a vaccine, and what level would you consider as 'effective'?
If a vaccine decreases the chance for an infected person to be sick by 50%, is it effective for you? Are levels below 50% considered 'effective'?

Pfizer's effectiveness was 94% in the beginning (at least that was told).
Israeli's Health Ministry claimed in the beginning of July that the effectiveness has fallen to 64%
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-co ... hird-dose/

The CEO of Pfizer admitted end of July that the effectiveness dropped to 84% (I suppose he still wants to sell his crappy product, so he talked about 84%, which is still high compared to 64%)
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/pfizers ... onths.html

That's epic failure and the confirmation of science, that you shouldnt do mass vaccination during a pandemic caused by a virus with such a high mutation rate, because its useless, you will not eradicate the virus...

"If a vaccine decreases the chance for an infected person to be sick by 50%" -
most of infected people dont get seriously ill (more than 99%), so they dont need a vaccine anyways. For the others (less than 1%), surely it makes sense, if the chance of getting seriously ill and die is decreased by 50%.

-----------------------------------------------

Some recent numbers from Israel are actually the reason I came back to this thread:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/
On Aug 15th there have been 46 deaths in Israel and yesterday (Aug 19th) 29 deaths, which gives rise to answer to these posts again

well if we would have a control population, no vaccine no exposure to the coranavirus before hand. we could see what the infection rate would be and compare.

considering what happened in India one can expect that the delta version spreads much more easily. so probably the rates we see now in England Israel would have been much higher without the vaccine. hard to prove right now, but we will get a clearer picture in about 2 months I think.

well if from all I wrote this is your conclusion it's pretty clear what kind of people I am talking to. Like every conspiracy theory fan, you just pick out an of context phrases from me in order to push some idea you already had planed to deliver like the Nuremberg code.

Comparing it with India, we have to take in consideration that it has a population of 1,35 bln inhabitants, while Israel only 9,4 mil. The highest spikes in India during the mediatised hysteria regarding delta variant have been around 5000 deaths/day. Keeping the proportions of the populations, that would mean ~35 deaths/day for Israel. Well, the highest spikes in Israel past 5-6 days have reached already the same level of highest of delta variant in India few months ago...

Moreover, in India there have been 70-80% of all cases and deaths in just 8-9 states out of 28. And even among that 8-9 states, the most cases/deaths by far came from the state of Maharashtra (126 mil inhabitants) and the capitol Delhi. The rest of that 8-9 states had 100-200 of deaths/day, bottom even below 100, but we talk here about states with 60 mil, 100 mil and 200 mil inhabitants, etc. In the rest of the country was no 4th wave caused by delta variant, but just western media hysteria "OMG, look at India! new variant! very dangerous!"

It looks much rather that bbi and you guys here are acting like conspiracy theorists, trying to adjust the reality around the determined slogan <<corona vaccines are good and the only solution, we need mass vaccination>>, which must be for you "the unchallengeable truth", invoking the Simpsons paradox, asking for control population, and so on, instead of accepting the reality that this vaccine almost failed and admitting that mass vaccination was unnecessary anyways.

[EarlofBug]

It looks much rather that bbi and you guys here are acting like conspiracy theorists, trying to adjust the reality around the determined slogan <<corona vaccines are good and the only solution, we need mass vaccination>>, which must be for you "the unchallengeable truth", invoking the Simpsons paradox, asking for control population, and so on, instead of accepting the reality that this vaccine almost failed and admitting that mass vaccination was unnecessary anyways.

I don't have a pre-opinion about the vaccine, I'm ambivalent about it and seeking answers.
Thanks for your last post, it creates some good questions

[bugylibicska]

A new Covid-19 variant has emerged in Eastern Europe. The variant, known as Upsilon, is believed to be even more contagious than Omicron. No deaths or serious illness due to the Upsilon variant have been reported. Symptoms observed include restoration of hair on bald people, remission of tumors in cancer patients, reversal of penile dysfunction and infertility, clearing of psoriasis and eczema, and reversal of heart failure. Governments around the world announced immediate total lockdowns until an effective vaccine can be developed.

[bugylibicska]

Joe Biden takes hardline approach against Russia, warns Putin not to invade Ukraine unless soldiers can show vaccine passport at the border.