UEFA Euro 2024

[Lubomir25]

https://twitter.com/kiani_samy70499/sta ... 5142627710

My tier list for EURO 2024

Favourites

France
England
Spain

Contenders

Portugal
Italy

Wild Cards

Germany
Belgium
Croatia

Dark horses

Türkiye
Hungary
Romania
Austria

Knockout stage fodder

Denmark
Ukraine
Switzerland
Netherlands
Greece
Serbia

Group stage fodder

Scotland
Albania
Slovenia
Poland
Slovakia
Czechia

Scotland will beat Germany in the opening game. I predict Germany will go out in the groups. I hope your team underestimate us the way you have in these predictions

You went the easy route by accusing me of underestimating Scotland.

Scotland are fairly rated by me. I have them right now down as 15th best team in UEFA on current form.

If you have Twitter here is my UEFA Ranking:

https://twitter.com/kiani_samy70499/sta ... 2615702621

Putting Scotland group stage fodder is the result of a mix of several factors I went through in my thought process

I don't rule out an appearance for Scotland in the round of 16 but that's about it. I can't imagine them going any farther than that.

We'll see but out of all the pot 1 teams it's clear Germany are the weakest as it stands and I'm certain Switzerland and Hungary are also smelling blood of the host nation

[BurningStorm]

Kicker.de poll with over 68k users. 38,7% say we'll be out after the group stage, only 8% predict the title:

Well Germans on the other side can't generally spell 'the' correctly they often say 'se' which sounds funny and you know immediately where this person come from. It was very helpful to know it on travels so you only need to ask 'where do you come from Germany?' In Austria plenty of people because of our cultural connextion probably I think we often spell correctly words from Eastern EU countries at least from people with better education

Same goes for us when we hear an Austrian speaking English. And I think no one can top them regarding the cringe factor with this heavy dialect (whether if they speak German or English). Schwarzenegger is probably the only Austrian where it sounds cool.
The "se" thing is more and more a question of the generation. Younger Germans very often pronounce it correctly.


@Lubomir25 Sometimes some coolness helps. When someone predicts Freiburg as 3rd placed team in their EL group, Leipzig as 3rd in the CL and Dortmund as 4th, I only think "the poor guy will be surprised...". I think Scotland is for sure no cannon fodder, they eliminated Norway, did a very good job against Spain (with a home win) and they also got a draw away against England in the previous EURO. They definitely have some chances, especially with good chances for 3rd placed teams in this mode. Kamtedrejt lives in Hamburg, but I believe his roots are from Albania? (correct me if I'm wrong) And even if he supports Germany too, he is objective in his predictions, sometimes even a bit too harsh. So no need to shoot against Germany, look at the poll, we are already pessimistic enough.

[Michael S Collins]

Germany are favourites even when weakened, but Scotland raise their game against bigger opponents. Still, looking forward to games, even if the threat of gubbings exist, is far, far, far better than not qualifying for the bloody tournament.

[Jackson Harrison]

Kicker.de poll with over 68k users. 38,7% say we'll be out after the group stage, only 8% predict the title:

Well Germans on the other side can't generally spell 'the' correctly they often say 'se' which sounds funny and you know immediately where this person come from. It was very helpful to know it on travels so you only need to ask 'where do you come from Germany?' In Austria plenty of people because of our cultural connextion probably I think we often spell correctly words from Eastern EU countries at least from people with better education

Same goes for us when we hear an Austrian speaking English. And I think no one can top them regarding the cringe factor with this heavy dialect (whether if they speak German or English). Schwarzenegger is probably the only Austrian where it sounds cool.
The "se" thing is more and more a question of the generation. Younger Germans very often pronounce it correctly.


@Lubomir25 Sometimes some coolness helps. When someone predicts Freiburg as 3rd placed team in their EL group, Leipzig as 3rd in the CL and Dortmund as 4th, I only think "the poor guy will be surprised...". I think Scotland is for sure no cannon fodder, they eliminated Norway, did a very good job against Spain (with a home win) and they also got a draw away against England in the previous EURO. They definitely have some chances, especially with good chances for 3rd placed teams in this mode. Kamtedrejt lives in Hamburg, but I believe his roots are from Albania? (correct me if I'm wrong) And even if he supports Germany too, he is objective in his predictions, sometimes even a bit too harsh. So no need to shoot against Germany, look at the poll, we are already pessimistic enough.

You won't win the title.

[dandeer]

German fans are so depressed.

[Lorric]

I don't think Germany's going out in the group stage. Their World Cup group was harder, and the 4pts there would almost certainly have been enough. Nations League group was harder and they again would have had enough. Their last three home friendlies against European opposition, lost 2-3 to Turkey, beat France 2-1 and drew 3-3 against Ukraine. Again, 4pts from a tougher trio than this group. They can at least scrape together enough points from three home games in this group.

[Kamtedrejt]

I don't think Germany's going out in the group stage. Their World Cup group was harder, and the 4pts there would almost certainly have been enough. Nations League group was harder and they again would have had enough. Their last three home friendlies against European opposition, lost 2-3 to Turkey, beat France 2-1 and drew 3-3 against Ukraine. Again, 4pts from a tougher trio than this group. They can at least scrape together enough points from three home games in this group.

Not 3-3 against Ukraine but a 2-0 loss to Austria actually.

[Lorric]

I don't think Germany's going out in the group stage. Their World Cup group was harder, and the 4pts there would almost certainly have been enough. Nations League group was harder and they again would have had enough. Their last three home friendlies against European opposition, lost 2-3 to Turkey, beat France 2-1 and drew 3-3 against Ukraine. Again, 4pts from a tougher trio than this group. They can at least scrape together enough points from three home games in this group.

Not 3-3 against Ukraine but a 2-0 loss to Austria actually.

Wasn't Austria away?

[Lorric]

Apparently there's technology in the ball that will help speed up VAR decisions:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/67630722

[greenbay]

I don't think Germany's going out in the group stage. Their World Cup group was harder, and the 4pts there would almost certainly have been enough. Nations League group was harder and they again would have had enough. Their last three home friendlies against European opposition, lost 2-3 to Turkey, beat France 2-1 and drew 3-3 against Ukraine. Again, 4pts from a tougher trio than this group. They can at least scrape together enough points from three home games in this group.

Not 3-3 against Ukraine but a 2-0 loss to Austria actually.

Wasn't Austria away?

The 2-3 loss to Turkey was an away game.

[Club-Mate]

I don't think Germany's going out in the group stage. Their World Cup group was harder, and the 4pts there would almost certainly have been enough. Nations League group was harder and they again would have had enough. Their last three home friendlies against European opposition, lost 2-3 to Turkey, beat France 2-1 and drew 3-3 against Ukraine. Again, 4pts from a tougher trio than this group. They can at least scrape together enough points from three home games in this group.

Not 3-3 against Ukraine but a 2-0 loss to Austria actually.

Anyway just the fact that there is a discussion how Germany at home soil could avoid elimination in a group with Scotland, Hungary and Switzerland tells you a lot. It must be humiliating for the 4-time world champion to discuss in such spheres. It would have been unthinkable 10 years ago. It's like when there's a discussion in Austria or Switzerland about reaching a mere top 10 place in an Olympic downhill race in skiing. Hipster Nagelsmann's will have a hard job to change the structure, attitude and right playstyle of this team and to learn them how to play against teams which are willing to fight. Just to put some higher marketvalues on the table won't win something.
@Kamtedrejt I like your ranking because it reflects exactly what is needed to evaluate chances for an upcoming tournament FIFA ranking and even Elo don't work properly for this point of view. The "constant k" obviously is set too low I think (matches years ago still count too much) otherwise it's not possible that nations which have a negative win/loss ratio for the last 2 years are rated that high.

[Dniprovec]

I don't think Germany's going out in the group stage. Their World Cup group was harder, and the 4pts there would almost certainly have been enough. Nations League group was harder and they again would have had enough. Their last three home friendlies against European opposition, lost 2-3 to Turkey, beat France 2-1 and drew 3-3 against Ukraine. Again, 4pts from a tougher trio than this group. They can at least scrape together enough points from three home games in this group.

Not 3-3 against Ukraine but a 2-0 loss to Austria actually.

Anyway just the fact that there is a discussion how Germany at home soil could avoid elimination in a group with Scotland, Hungary and Switzerland tells you a lot. It must be humiliating for the 4-time world champion to discuss in such spheres. It would have been unthinkable 10 years ago. It's like when there's a discussion in Austria or Switzerland about reaching a mere top 10 place in an Olympic downhill race in skiing. Hipster Nagelsmann's will have a hard job to change the structure, attitude and right playstyle of this team and to learn them how to play against teams which are willing to fight. Just to put some higher marketvalues on the table won't win something.
@Kamtedrejt I like your ranking because it reflects exactly what is needed to evaluate chances for an upcoming tournament FIFA ranking and even Elo don't work properly for this point of view. The "constant k" obviously is set too low I think (matches years ago still count too much) otherwise it's not possible that nations which have a negative win/loss ratio for the last 2 years are rated that high.

If anything, it is the opposite: on average it is set too high for Elo, especially for the big tournaments like the WC, which due to the structure of the tournament creates some inflated ratings (FIFA has this particular aspect even worse by not decreasing ratings for losses in the knockouts).

Playing around with all history data it was possible to increase the accuracy of individual match outcome predictions by reducing K: both for the whole set of matches as well a matches in the last 5-6 years.

IMHO, "Matches years ago" still speak of the underlying quality of the nation and their potential to be on top. All the top teams had their fair share of crises, but most of the time they keep coming back. It might also reflect the strength of the players this nation produces which with the change of the coach for example can start bringing results again.

[BurningStorm]

Anyway just the fact that there is a discussion how Germany at home soil could avoid elimination in a group with Scotland, Hungary and Switzerland tells you a lot. It must be humiliating for the 4-time world champion to discuss in such spheres. It would have been unthinkable 10 years ago.

On the other hand: if this is the price for the '14 WC title I think everyone would have taken it. It's still better to witness something unforgettable like a WC win - even with a 5-year downfall after that, from '18 until now - than being very constant but never win such a trophy (which was the case for us before the 4th WC win, at least since the EURO '96). Italian fans might think the same, and they also had (have) hard times.

[dandeer]

Isn't constantly playing at the highest level (ie. semi-finals) better? In any case this is merely a question of taste.

[Club-Mate]

Isn't constantly playing at the highest level (ie. semi-finals) better? In any case this is merely a question of taste.

That already fails because of the arithmetics. How can about 6-8 top nations constantly reach a SF at once? would be interesting to know how many SF's these 6-8 top nations reached for the last 20 years (10 tournaments) for a constant good performance. It's not such a big task to evaluate it.