Spreadsheet for European Cups - Feedback & Suggestions

[eye]

The expected coefficients tab was added at both spreadsheets. We can see there the expected boost of the top countries (currently 4 countries are expected to get over 20 coefficient at next season). Since this model is actually underestimating the performance of top countries cause at these countries the league has much depth and clubs with low or even minimum coefficient may qualify even at CL-LP we should expect numbers over 25 to be needed for top2 in future

[amirbachar]

The expected coefficients tab was added at both spreadsheets. We can see there the expected boost of the top countries (currently 4 countries are expected to get over 20 coefficient at next season). Since this model is actually underestimating the performance of top countries cause at these countries the league has much depth and clubs with low or even minimum coefficient may qualify even at CL-LP we should expect numbers over 25 to be needed for top2 in future

Wow, based on coefficient points only, Israel is heading for the top 10 in 2 years... Obviously it is very unrealistic, I wonder what simulations based on Elo would show.

[Overgame]

The expected coefficients tab was added at both spreadsheets. We can see there the expected boost of the top countries (currently 4 countries are expected to get over 20 coefficient at next season). Since this model is actually underestimating the performance of top countries cause at these countries the league has much depth and clubs with low or even minimum coefficient may qualify even at CL-LP we should expect numbers over 25 to be needed for top2 in future

Wow, based on coefficient points only, Israel is heading for the top 10 in 2 years... Obviously it is very unrealistic, I wonder what simulations based on Elo would show.

Israel is 11th if you only look at the last 4 years, so not so much "unrealistic". But there is a big gap between 10th and 11th, so it won't, most probably, never happen.
They're supposed to be 24th in CL LP, 9th and 10th in ECL LP.

[mitsaras]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1671080203

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1671080203

Both spreadsheets were updated based on the new rebalancing rules and the new coefficient system that UEFA let us know at the regulations for next season's competitions.
The only other change at both spreadsheets is the upgrade of the Rebalancing Ranking tabs where you can now see which clubs are fighting for each possible rebalancing spot due to each TH qualification to a competition domestically.
Eg at CL-W REBALANCING for CL-po you can see the ranking of clubs that may be promoted to CL-po due to CL-W rebalancing. If CL-W qualified domestically at CL-LP and replaced by a club from CL-po or CL-W qualified domestically at CL-po then the rebalancing takes place and number 1 in the order of clubs becomes green.

Very interesting tab!
Easily we can understand that in the future:
a) top 12 countries will need at least 50.000 points.
b) top 15 countries will need at least 40.000 points.

[Fotcalc]

@eye, great spreadsheet. Why have you promoted FCSB to UCL Q2?

3.04 a): "A vacancy created by the UEFA Champions League titleholder is filled by the domestic champion(s) with the highest individual club coefficient(s) of all the clubs that qualify for the champions path. The champions path is adapted accordingly, with each subsequent vacancy filled by the club(s) with the highest individual club coefficient(s) of all the clubs in the previous round."

[eye]

@eye, great spreadsheet. Why have you promoted FCSB to UCL Q2?

3.04 a): "A vacancy created by the UEFA Champions League titleholder is filled by the domestic champion(s) with the highest individual club coefficient(s) of all the clubs that qualify for the champions path. The champions path is adapted accordingly, with each subsequent vacancy filled by the club(s) with the highest individual club coefficient(s) of all the clubs in the previous round."

If you see at the rebalancing ranking tab Shakhtar is promoted to LP since has the highest coefficient of all clubs in champions path, Slavia Praha replaced Shakhtar at po and Ferencvaros replaces Slavia Praha at Q2. This creates an extra vacancy at Q2 since now 1 pair less is needed at Q1.

From article 3.06 of regulations
"In the event of any other vacancies, and further knock-on effects in the UEFA Europa League and/or UEFA Conference League, priority is given to the best ranked club(s) in the UEFA Champions League or the domestic cup winner(s) in the UEFA Europa League and/or UEFA Conference League (or the club(s) replacing it if it qualifies for the UEFA Champions League) of the association ranked highest in the access list for the previous round of the corresponding path."

So priority for the extra vacancy is given to the champion of next in rank country which is Romania since Hungary's champion is already promoted to Q2. That's how I understood the rebalancing rules

[Fotcalc]

I see your thinking, @eye, but I disagree.

The extra vacancy in UCL Q2 is a result of UCL TH rebelanancing, so 3.04 applies first.

In 3.04 they say "each subsequent vacancy", meaning all subsequent vacancies, since the last Q2 vacancy is a subsequent one too I think. Also, they even added "filled by the club(s)". The "s" in the end wouldn't be there if the last vacancy wasn't rebalanced according to 3.04.

[eye]

..

[eye]

Then what's the point of 3.06 article? As I understand it subsequest vacancies are the ones created from each replacement. The plular you see is because the rebalancing of CL-W might involve from 1-3 clubs depending on which round the one that won first rebalancing is starting. Plural is also used at EL's regulations even it is more clear there that clubs from ECL will be promoted.

[Fotcalc]

This is my understanding:

3.06 is made for bans and when there is a vacancy in UEL Q3 due to UCL league path rebelancing, as I have understood it.

You are right that there probably will be more than one club affected by UCL TH rebalancing in champions path, but from the words I made bold below, we know that clubs(s) (in plural) applies to each of the previous rounds, not all the previous rounds at the same time.

The champions path is adapted accordingly, with each subsequent vacancy filled by the club(s) with the highest individual club coefficient(s) of all the clubs in the previous round.

I don't know why they have club(s), and not club in UEL regulations.

[Deneverember]

Hi,
UEFA say that:
"If the UEL titleholder qualifies for the UCL league phase via the domestic league, the club with the best individual club coefficient of all clubs that have qualified for the UCL champions path (champions of associations 11 to 55) and the UCL league path (clubs of associations 5 to 15) will enter the UCL league phase directly instead of the original round they qualified for (provided they are the next best club in their domestic championship not already qualified for the UCL league phase)."
If i see the ranking of association Scotland is the 10th in 2024 and 9th in 2023 (5 year periods) therefore Glasgow Rangers must be in the group stage instead of Shaktar Doneck, although it is not clear when years order matters or a yearly order counting? If yearly order counting Scotland is the 17th ( this season).

[eye]

Hi,
UEFA say that:
"If the UEL titleholder qualifies for the UCL league phase via the domestic league, the club with the best individual club coefficient of all clubs that have qualified for the UCL champions path (champions of associations 11 to 55) and the UCL league path (clubs of associations 5 to 15) will enter the UCL league phase directly instead of the original round they qualified for (provided they are the next best club in their domestic championship not already qualified for the UCL league phase)."
If i see the ranking of association Scotland is the 10th in 2024 and 9th in 2023 (5 year periods) therefore Glasgow Rangers must be in the group stage instead of Shaktar Doneck, although it is not clear when years order matters or a yearly order counting? If yearly order counting Scotland is the 17th ( this season).

Scotland was 9th at the country ranking of 2023 so champion is qualified directly to league phase and runner up at the 3rd qualifying round for non champions and Rangers is taking this spot currently.
Shakhtar is taking a spot to league phase not because EL titleholder qualified domestically at CL league phase but because CL titleholder qualified domestically at CL league phase. At this rebalancing only the champions can take part and Rangers is not at champion spot currently and also Scotland's champion doesn't take part at this rebalancing since is already qualified at league phase.
Current;y Rangers is taking part at the EL rebalancing contest but it is Benfica that wins the spot because Benfica has higher coefficient

[eye]

This is my understanding:

3.06 is made for bans and when there is a vacancy in UEL Q3 due to UCL league path rebelancing, as I have understood it.

You are right that there probably will be more than one club affected by UCL TH rebalancing in champions path, but from the words I made bold below, we know that clubs(s) (in plural) applies to each of the previous rounds, not all the previous rounds at the same time.

The champions path is adapted accordingly, with each subsequent vacancy filled by the club(s) with the highest individual club coefficient(s) of all the clubs in the previous round.

I don't know why they have club(s), and not club in UEL regulations.

The ones that wrote regulations have spend 3 long articles at the EL regulations to explain what happens when domestic cup winner is qualified at CL or finishes to other place that awards a spot domestically (something that could be written in few sentenses) and they have managed to write the rest regulations in way that each one who reads them has a different understanding and noone is 100% of what will actually happen. We have a different understanding on how the extra place of Q2 will be awarded but there are even worse scenarios that are not even covered at regulations. Eg if Italy wins EPS and Roma or Atalanta finishes at 5th place and win EL then according to regulations since EPS are awarded after the CL-W and EL-W rebalancing (clearly stated in the regulations) Roma or Atalanta gets the EL-W spot, no rebalancing based on EL-W is needed since EL-W wasn't at top 4 and the club that will win the EPS is already at LP as EL-W without any info on which club should get the spot.

I don't understand why they can't write regulations clearly. Eg for CL the correct regulations should have been like this:

1) Placement of clubs at their initial rounds based on access list.
2) Rebalance clubs based on country ranking when a club or more are missing. They should also why a club might be missing. For CL is just due to ban (for the other competitions there are few more reasons)
3) Place CL-W to LP and if:
a) CL-W has qualified domestically at LP then highest ranked CH is moving to CL.
b) if CL-W has qualified domestically at PO or if CL-W has qualified domestically at LP and highest ranked CH has qualified at PO then club with higher coefficient of Q2 is moving to PO
c) if CL-W has qualified domestically at Q2 or if CL-W has qualified domestically at LP and highest ranked CH has qualified at PO or Q2 then either 2 clubs with higher coefficient of Q1 are moving to Q2 or club with higher coefficient of Q1 moves to Q2 and the club from the highest ranked association from the remaining Q1 clubs is moving to Q2 also.
d) if CL-W if CL-W has qualified domestically at Q1 then club with higher coefficient of Q1 is moving to Q2 or the club from the higher ranked association is moving to Q2.
e and f the same way if CL-W qualified at Q3nc and Q2 nc.
4) the same way with 3 for EL-W placement
5) Add the 2 EPS and explain what happens if they are already at LP.

Is it so hard to write regulations like this and cover all scenarios?

[Fotcalc]

Good points, @eye. I think we all agree with you here

[amenina]

This is my understanding:

3.06 is made for bans and when there is a vacancy in UEL Q3 due to UCL league path rebelancing, as I have understood it.

You are right that there probably will be more than one club affected by UCL TH rebalancing in champions path, but from the words I made bold below, we know that clubs(s) (in plural) applies to each of the previous rounds, not all the previous rounds at the same time.

The champions path is adapted accordingly, with each subsequent vacancy filled by the club(s) with the highest individual club coefficient(s) of all the clubs in the previous round.

I don't know why they have club(s), and not club in UEL regulations.

The ones that wrote regulations have spend 3 long articles at the EL regulations to explain what happens when domestic cup winner is qualified at CL or finishes to other place that awards a spot domestically (something that could be written in few sentenses) and they have managed to write the rest regulations in way that each one who reads them has a different understanding and noone is 100% of what will actually happen. We have a different understanding on how the extra place of Q2 will be awarded but there are even worse scenarios that are not even covered at regulations. Eg if Italy wins EPS and Roma or Atalanta finishes at 5th place and win EL then according to regulations since EPS are awarded after the CL-W and EL-W rebalancing (clearly stated in the regulations) Roma or Atalanta gets the EL-W spot, no rebalancing based on EL-W is needed since EL-W wasn't at top 4 and the club that will win the EPS is already at LP as EL-W without any info on which club should get the spot.

I don't understand why they can't write regulations clearly. Eg for CL the correct regulations should have been like this:

1) Placement of clubs at their initial rounds based on access list.
2) Rebalance clubs based on country ranking when a club or more are missing. They should also why a club might be missing. For CL is just due to ban (for the other competitions there are few more reasons)
3) Place CL-W to LP and if:
a) CL-W has qualified domestically at LP then highest ranked CH is moving to CL.
b) if CL-W has qualified domestically at PO or if CL-W has qualified domestically at LP and highest ranked CH has qualified at PO then club with higher coefficient of Q2 is moving to PO
c) if CL-W has qualified domestically at Q2 or if CL-W has qualified domestically at LP and highest ranked CH has qualified at PO or Q2 then either 2 clubs with higher coefficient of Q1 are moving to Q2 or club with higher coefficient of Q1 moves to Q2 and the club from the highest ranked association from the remaining Q1 clubs is moving to Q2 also.
d) if CL-W if CL-W has qualified domestically at Q1 then club with higher coefficient of Q1 is moving to Q2 or the club from the higher ranked association is moving to Q2.
e and f the same way if CL-W qualified at Q3nc and Q2 nc.
4) the same way with 3 for EL-W placement
5) Add the 2 EPS and explain what happens if they are already at LP.

Is it so hard to write regulations like this and cover all scenarios?

UEFA should have just paid the people on this forum to write the regulations. Pretty sure we would have done it much more accurately and with a much lower price.