Battles for important ranking positions 2022-2023

[Stadion]

What does 22nd place give in terms of the new system? I am still confused like a little baby.

You can see the difference here: https://kassiesa.net/uefa/AccessList2024.html.

22nd's champion start in UCL Q2, 23rd's champion start in UCL Q1.

Wouldn't title holder shifts mean that #23 would be bumped up to UCL Q2 anyway?

[Clockingbell]

Don't the Dutch still have an outside chance to finish 5th? Especially now PSG is eliminated?

I was just checking about it.

60.331-57.700 = 2.631
2.631 * 5 = 13.155
So 14 points (even if Nice get a draw and is eliminated, Netherland will need 14 points).

So both teams in semi, or lifting the trophy + the other getting some points.

Exactly this. I know some are asking about Netherlands' chances next year, but I still don't see that happening

I'm not saying the Dutch will get 5th, but if Portugal still has an outside chance to make 6th, then the Netherlands have about the same chance to get 5th. Just an observation.

[Fotcalc]

Wouldn't title holder shifts mean that #23 would be bumped up to UCL Q2 anyway?

Rembember, this season's ranking is decicive for club deployment in 24/25.

For the 24/25 season there will be a new format when it comes to title holder rebalancing.

Take a look at this image:

https://rankinguefa.pl/wp-content/uploa ... 6TnLDXRQ9w

Seemingly, when the UCL TH qualify for UCL domestically, the highest ranked club in CH-path will take the UCL GS spot. Not necessarily a club from the play-offs.

The club ranking decicive for 24/25 (only including non top 10 NAs) is like this currently:


As I read the document, the highests ranked champion in the ranking above will take the UCL GS spot. All in all this means that all the rebalancing now most likely will be fully based on the club ranking and not on the access list.

[Firnen]

BATTLE FOR 11th/15th


11. Serbia...............28.875............(1.875)...2/4
--------------------------------------------------------------
12. Norway..............26.750............(3.500)...2/4
13. Czech Republic....26.550............(4.200)...3/4
14. Switzerland........26.425............(3.250)...2/4
15. Russia...............26.215............(4.333)...0/0
--------------------------------------------------------------
16. Ukraine.............25.700............(1.900)...3/5
17. Greece..............24.725............(1.625)...1/4
18. Croatia..............24.650............(2.625)...2/4
19. Denmark............24.625...........(2.700)....3/5
20. Israel................23.000............(4.250)...2/4
21. Turkey...............22.700............(2.400)...4/5
22. Cyprus...............22.075............(2.700)...4/5


Serbia will have 1 team in Pot 1 of EL (Zvezda) and 1 team in Pot 1 of ECL (Partizan). 11th is firmly at their hands, barring a long run from someone below them and a massive Zvezda failure. They're not safe, but they have a solid advantage.

Α massive Zvezda failure happened and a surprisingly good season from Turkey has put Serbia in danger to lose 11th. But with the new UEFA system, 11th is not that important so no real harm done for Serbia.

Norway will have 1 team in Pot 3 of EL (Bodo) and 1 team in Pot 2 of ECL (Molde). Now, this seems bleak in comparison to Serbia. But I think their teams are equal (Molde actually better than Partizan) to the Serbian ones, thus the draw will play an important role here. Czechia and Switzerland are also breathing down their neck, thus 12th-14th are very close now. Norway has an advantage over both though, and are still firm favourites for 12th with an outside chance for 11th.

My biggest prediction failure, Norway had a really disappointing season with Molde crashing out of the ECL Group and Bodo crashing out to Lech Pozanan after a 3rd place in their EL Group. Combine it with Ukraine stubborny refusing to drop in the Rankings despite the harsh conditions and Turkey having a wonder season, Norway lost top 15.

Czechia will have 1 team in the CL Group of Death (Plzen), 1 team in Pot 1 of ECL (Slavia) and 1 in Pot 4 (Slovacko). Any points from Plzen will be a bonus for Czechia, while Slovacko will also had a tough task ahead - but not an impossible one. Slavia is the big gun - they could collect a ton of points. Czechia is for me the favourite for 13th, with decent chances for 12th, but also in danger to drop to 14th.

Slovacko did better than expected, Plzen did exactly as expected, but Slavia was a massive disappointmen and Czechia has to thank Lech Poznan for remaining in the top 15 with no team in Europe after November.

Switzlerland will have 1 team in Pot 4 of EL (Zurich) and 1 team in Pot 1 of ECL (Basel). Young Boys getting eliminated was a big blow to Swiss chances - Basel doesn't look as strong and Zurich is weak for the EL level. Basel can probably collect enough points to secure them top 15 (and 14th place), but anything more now looks an uphill battle for Switzerland.

Zurich was indeed very weak for the EL level, and Basel did collect enough points for top 15, but a surprising win over Trabzonspor and a kind draw in the R16 has Switzerland probably finishing 13th (barring a Shakhtar upset in the Netherlands).

Ukraine will have 1 team in a CL Group (Shakhtar), 1 in Pot 1 of EL (Dyanmo Kyiv) and 1 in Pot 4 of ECL (Dnipro). Shakhtar will collect vey few - if any - points. Same with Dnipro. The question is, what can Dynamo Kyiv do? If they can't do much, Ukraine won't be in the top 15 in the end of the year, plain and simple. They are in a tough spot because of the war situation, and it won't get any better I'm afraid.

The resilient Shakhtar managed to finish 3rd in a CL Group despite losing all their foreigners while Dnipro advanced from an ECL Group countering Dynamo Kyiv's disastrous year, and Ukraine against all odds remained in the top 15, they will finish probably 14th (with a slim chance for 13th).

Greece will have 1 team in Pot 1 of EL (Olympiacos). Olympiacos plays horribly so far, is winless in 6 Qualifying matches, thus it is almost impossible to bring on their own enough points in the EL to keep Greece ahead of Denmark and overtake Ukraine. Overtaking Ukraine might be doable with a lucky draw for Olympiacos and a bad one for Dynamo, but it's a very long shot.

No long shot, no miracle, no turning the page for Olympiacos, Greece got what they had coming for years, a 2.125 season and 20th place.

Croatia is out of the battle unless a miracle happens. Dinamo Zagreb is in a tough CL Group, even if they manage to not finish last, it will be very very difficult to outscore EL and ECL teams.

It happened as expected, Croatia ends 19th.

Denmark has 1 team in a CL Group (Copenhagen), 1 team in Pot 3 of EL (Midtjylland) and 1 team in Pot 4 od ECL (Silkeborg). Copenhagen has an uphill battle and anything above 4th will be a suprirse. Midtjylland and Silkeborg don't look good so far. But they're two teams vs Greece's one and they have home matches (something Ukraine doesn't have). Is it enough to land them 15th? I think it will be, but very very narrowly.

In the end, I missed a lot of predictions by 1 spot because I didn't believe in Turkish clubs getting 3 (!!) 1st places. Denmark finishes 17th doing more or less as expected but their competitors doing better.

Israel has 1 team in CL Groups (Maccabi Haifa) and 1 team in Pot 2 of ECL (Beer Sheva). Maccabi Tel-Aviv's failure to make ECL Groups was crucial for Israeli hopes, because currently they are more than 5 wins behind Ukraine. Where can they find 5 wins? Beer Sheva is competitive, but not dominant to this degree in ECL level. Maccaibi Haifa has a super difficult Groups, any points will be a plus. I can't see it happenning.

Israel heavily outscored Greece and Croatia this season and could have entered the top 20, but narrowly stayed 21st. They are on an upwards spiral and one of the next years they will be in the fight for 15th.

Turkey has 1 team in Pot 3 of EL (Fenerbahce), 1 team in Pot 4 of EL (Trabzonspor), 1 team in Pot 1 of ECL (Basaksehir) and 1 team in Pot 3 of ECL (Sivasspor). The only country to have 4 teams, and that's their weapon. But they're almost 8 wins away from Ukraine. Sivasspor is weak and won't contribute much. How many points can the other 3 clubs bring? Draw dependent to a bigger extent than the rest, I see Turkey winning 2 or 3 positions, but not enough to make top 15.

Yeah, about that.
Sivasspor managed to eliminate Slavia and Cluj and finish 1st.
Fenerbahce and Basaksehir also finished 1st.
Wonder season for Turkey, minimum 12th place with a chance for 11th and (a very slim one) for 10th!

Cyprus has 2 teams in Pot 4 of EL (Omonoia and AEK Larnaca) and 1 team in Pot 2 of ECL (Apollon). It's the same with Turkey but with even worse conditions regarding to seeding, thus Cyprus isn't really in the race for top 15. But they can make 1 or 2 pots thanks to havng 3 teams in Europe and none in the Champions League.

Cyprus managed to outscore their last 2 seasons despite dividing their points by 5 instead of 4, which is proof that having 5 teams is not necessarily a disadvantage for the ranking for countries whose clubs struggle to make Groups.

[dnina10]

Slovacko did better than expected, Plzen did exactly as expected, but Slavia was a massive disappointment and Czechia has to thank Lech Poznan for remaining in the top 15 with no team in Europe after November.

I did a piece on the most crucial losses this season for 7 NAs that were battling for 12th to 15th. I said that Czechia actually has Gent to thank as they knocked out Molde in the ECL. I think that was a tad more damaging than Bodø failing in the KO Playoffs

[Juliusz]

My biggest prediction failure, Norway had a really disappointing season with Molde crashing out of the ECL Group and Bodo crashing out to Lech Pozanan after a 3rd place in their EL Group. Combine it with Ukraine stubborny refusing to drop in the Rankings despite the harsh conditions and Turkey having a wonder season, Norway lost top 15.

This is all true, however the gap was very narrow. It was enough to draw (not even win) any of lost matches against KI Klaksvik, Linfield, Žalgiris or Sligo Rovers to achieve 15th place. Or, going back into previous seasons: Prishtina, Shamrock Rovers, Valur or Glenavon. With all due respect to these teams, Norway has to regret these wasted chances.

[dnina10]

My biggest prediction failure, Norway had a really disappointing season with Molde crashing out of the ECL Group and Bodo crashing out to Lech Pozanan after a 3rd place in their EL Group. Combine it with Ukraine stubborny refusing to drop in the Rankings despite the harsh conditions and Turkey having a wonder season, Norway lost top 15.

This is all true, however the gap was very narrow. It was enough to draw (not even win) any of lost matches against KI Klaksvik, Linfield, Žalgiris or Sligo Rovers to achieve 15th place. Or, going back into previous seasons: Prishtina, Shamrock Rovers, Valur or Glenavon. With all due respect to these teams, Norway has to regret these wasted chances.

Yep, fully agree. Like I said earlier though, the most damaging one had to be Molde's collapse at Gent back in November

[Firnen]

My biggest prediction failure, Norway had a really disappointing season with Molde crashing out of the ECL Group and Bodo crashing out to Lech Pozanan after a 3rd place in their EL Group. Combine it with Ukraine stubborny refusing to drop in the Rankings despite the harsh conditions and Turkey having a wonder season, Norway lost top 15.

This is all true, however the gap was very narrow. It was enough to draw (not even win) any of lost matches against KI Klaksvik, Linfield, Žalgiris or Sligo Rovers to achieve 15th place. Or, going back into previous seasons: Prishtina, Shamrock Rovers, Valur or Glenavon. With all due respect to these teams, Norway has to regret these wasted chances.

For top 15, yes, but I was forecasting Norway to fight with Serbia this season.
As you said, they lost so many points against minnows and both Molde and Bodo underperformed expectations in their Groups. Especially Molde, you'd expect the team that won the league easily to be able to advance from an ECL Group with no big league team.

[Club-Mate]

the main problem however for Norway is the "calendar year season" with this long winterbreak until midst of April. How can you be prepared well for EC matches in February when your next dates are in April even when you make a one week camp in Turkey or Spain with some friendly matches? In summer time when Norway already have completed many matches and the other teams just starting into quali without enough match practice Norway performs very well (13 - 2 - 9 last summer). Even in Austria BL the winterbreak is too long with about 2 months. Teams which overwinter in EC have not got enough competitive match practice and are not yet in a full game rhythm. It gets better in March but then it's often too late. The performance difference for example of Salzburg in GS in autumn compared to their February matches this season with almost 3 months break was clearly visable.

[matt]

Belgium ahead of France in this season's country coefficient. Impressive season!

[Lubomir25]

the main problem however for Norway is the "calendar year season" with this long winterbreak until midst of April. How can you be prepared well for EC matches in February when your next dates are in April even when you make a one week camp in Turkey or Spain with some friendly matches? In summer time when Norway already have completed many matches and the other teams just starting into quali without enough match practice Norway performs very well (13 - 2 - 9 last summer). Even in Austria BL the winterbreak is too long with about 2 months. Teams which overwinter in EC have not got enough competitive match practice and are not yet in a full game rhythm. It gets better in March but then it's often too late. The performance difference for example of Salzburg in GS in autumn compared to their February matches this season with almost 3 months break was clearly visable.

There has previously been a debate in Scotland about switching to summer football so that we have a better chance in qualifiers. There is no perfect solution unfortunately. Norway in terms of match fitness would have an advantage over a team on a different schedule in qualifying rounds but lose out in the latter stages.

[Firnen]

Turkey fails to overtake Serbia for 11th with all 3 clubs crashing out in the Round of 16 and achieving 1 win in 6 matches.

Poland overtakes Bulgaria and Romania, and are eyeing Hungary for 24th.

Belgium is having a record-breaking season, the Netherlands keeps flying high.

Italy with 6 teams in the QFs for the first time since the 90s.

[bjkman1903]

Turkey fails to overtake Serbia for 11th with all 3 clubs crashing out in the Round of 16 and achieving 1 win in 8 matches.

1 ? You forgot Trabzonspor's home win against Basel.

It's not an excuse, but after that terrible earthquake it was really hard to focus on football again. The league stopped for a while, and some of Turkish clubs like Basaksehir & Trabzonspor were just the shadow of the teams they used to be in the first part of the season.

In any case, it was truly a great season for Turkey and hopefully next year (especially with the return of Galatasaray) we will be challenging 10th place again.

[Firnen]

Turkey fails to overtake Serbia for 11th with all 3 clubs crashing out in the Round of 16 and achieving 1 win in 8 matches.

1 ? You forgot Trabzonspor's home win against Basel.

Trabzonspor got eliminated in the previous round, I was talking about the last 2 weeks, the Round of 16.

[bjkman1903]

Turkey fails to overtake Serbia for 11th with all 3 clubs crashing out in the Round of 16 and achieving 1 win in 8 matches.

1 ? You forgot Trabzonspor's home win against Basel.

Trabzonspor got eliminated in the previous round, I was talking about the last 2 weeks, the Round of 16.

But you say 1 win in 8 matches.
Turkey only had 3 teams = 6 matches in the Round of 16.