After UK media reported earlier this week that FIFA is thinking of a new 3-year NT cycle instead of the current 4-year cycle, I began to realise it could be the solution to break the deadlock between Europe and the Rest of the World about how to democratise more men's international football.
This could particularly appeal to UEFA and European clubs because:
- according to UK media euro2024 qualifiers have not generated as much commercial revenue for UEFA as hoped for, hence UEFA is next month expected to announce the replacement of traditional qualifying groups from 2026 WCQ in favour of NL-style qualifying which can be shorter and increase fan engagement and consequently commercial revenue;
- I read an article the other day saying FIFA is targeting USD$2bn for the first edition of its revamped 32-team Club WC in June=July 2025 (unknown yet if it is a straight KO format or involves groups) which would likely make it attractive to European clubs, particularly those outside the English Premier League. If FIFA absorbs the organisational costs into its existing budget - like it proposed to do with the extra WC in a 4-year cycle as part of biennial WC proposal - it could have a very significant prize money fund for the clubs which qualify. Initially I was very sceptical about the potential success of expanding the Club WC and moving it to the summer but now I think it could become attractive to most European clubs (I presume it would be very attractive to clubs outside Europe).
Theoretically, the shorter NL-style qualifying format below could be used by all confederations (I have borrowed it from a post in the 2026 WC thread and the new women's NT competition format UEFA announced last month) which I expect would likely increase fan engagement and therefore commercial revenue for the confederations and associations.
Nb. Only teams in League A could qualify automatically, the number would depend on how many slots each confederation has at the WC and at its own continental championship (CC).
Sep-Nov 2029 - WCQ GS (groups of 4 teams (6 home-and-away matches)) in Leagues A, B & C
Mar 2030 - WCQ playoffs for teams not automatically qualified in League A, and Leagues B and C group winners
Jun 2030 - friendlies x 2
Jun-Jul 2026 - WC
Sep-Nov 2030 - Continental championship (CC) Q GS (groups of 4 teams (6 home-and-away matches)) in Leagues A, B & C
Mar 2031 - CCQ playoffs for teams not automatically qualified in League A, and Leagues B and C group winners
Jun 2031 - friendlies x 2
Jun-Jul 2031 - CC
Sep-Nov 2031 - Continental NL GS (groups of 4 teams (6 home-and-away matches)) in Leagues A, B & C
Mar 2032 - NL Finals (in each confederation) for League A group winners + NL promotion and relegation playoffs for teams not automatically promoted or relegated
Jun 2032 - friendlies x 2
Jun-Jul 2032 - Club WC
2032/33 Restart 3-year cycle leading to 2033 WC
At the end of each qualifying season or NL season, automatic promotion and relegation between Leagues A, B & C happens, but promotion/relegation playoffs for teams not automatically promoted or relegated is only in NL season (2031-32 above).
Crucially, particularly for NTs outside Europe, every NT has a fresh objective at the start of every calendar year and the practice in some confederations of weaker NTs being eliminated very early in qualifying after playing only one home-and-away tie is removed.
The potential drawback of player fatigue could be mitigated by the Club WC using a straight KO format.
The WC and CCs might become a little less special if they happen every 3 years instead of 4, but the advantages could outweigh that disadvantage, particularly if this format helps to increase the competitiveness of teams from outside Europe, making the WC a more interesting competition for everyone.