Battle for important ranking positions 2023-24

[fabiomh]

A general comment about the coefficients and Italy performance.
Italy has been going very well in the last 2-3 seasons, this year might be the 1st country in the 1-year ranking, but they have no Big team, they have no team in QF CL.
Italy performance is due to a very good average performance, I mean a good performance from all teams, expecially the ones in EL or ECL.
For example this season all the 7 Italian teams collected points in a range 16 (Fiorentina) -21 (Atalanta)
Probably the current points system is an advantage for Italy; starting from 24/25 season, the CL points will weigh more than today, and this will reduce the advantage for Italy.

[Sagy]

This year shows that a country needs a “deep bench” in order to do well in EPS. Spain has 3 of the top 5 teams right now and is basically out of the race for top two. On the other hand, Italy is almost assured of top two finish without a team in the top 7.

Spain is out because a relegation level team won the EL last year, played in CL Groups, got 0-2-4 and caused Spain to divide by 8 instead of 7.
Osasuna's August elimination was the cherry on top.
Next year the conditions change because of no more transfer from CL to EL and EL to ECL, and a completely different bonus points system.

That’s my point, this year Spain with Osasuna (0.5 points), Sevilla (6) and Real Betis (7), a total of 13.5 points (1.688 contribution to country) didn’t have a “deep bench”.

For example 6-8 teams for England got 31 points(3.875), Italy 6&7 (no got 33 (4.714) even Germany 6&7 got 15.5 (2.214). Italy and Germany also have the benefit of the total being divided by 7 and not 8.

[amirbachar]

Most of numbers are similar. The ones I posted doesn't take account the strength of clubs so the difference in the % of the other predictions is cause of this. I would disagree with the 0.4 for France from Opta which is more than double chances than the 0.16 I got cause I don't think French clubs are actually favourites at any of their ties.

How can intuitively differentiate between 0.16% to 0.4%? A small change in the draw probability would do that...

As numbers 0.16 and 0.40 are close but as an increase 0.40 is 2.5 times higher than 0.16 so the change is not small. The 0.16 of my calculation is based on that each result (home win, away win, draw) has same probability at each match at each round. Since France is currently far away from 2nd place and it requires at least 2 French clubs to qualify to SFs I don't think after the results of first legs that 2 French clubs have much higher chances than their opponents to have such increase. I was expecting a similar to mine number and most likely a bit lower

As I said, just change the probabilities to 40-20-40 in each match, and you'll get something closer to 0.4 because of higher variance. it's not something you can really feel.

[babaluj1]

This year shows that a country needs a “deep bench” in order to do well in EPS. Spain has 3 of the top 5 teams right now and is basically out of the race for top two. On the other hand, Italy is almost assured of top two finish without a team in the top 7.

Spain is out because a relegation level team won the EL last year, played in CL Groups, got 0-2-4 and caused Spain to divide by 8 instead of 7.
Osasuna's August elimination was the cherry on top.
Next year the conditions change because of no more transfer from CL to EL and EL to ECL, and a completely different bonus points system.

That’s my point, this year Spain with Osasuna (0.5 points), Sevilla (6) and Real Betis (7), a total of 13.5 points (1.688 contribution to country) didn’t have a “deep bench”.

For example 6-8 teams for England got 31 points(3.875), Italy 6&7 (no got 33 (4.714) even Germany 6&7 got 15.5 (2.214). Italy and Germany also have the benefit of the total being divided by 7 and not 8.

For the clubs coming from the strongest 5 Big leagues, we can give a general evaluation of the performances by the points won:

below 10 points - negative (1)
10-14 points-enough (2)
15-19 points-good(3)
20-24 points - very good (4)
25 and more points - excellent (5)

The Spaniards have as many as three clubs with a negative performance this season: Ossasuna 0.5 (catastrophe), Sevilla 6.0, Real Betis 7.0. This is the main reason why they are not in the game for the Top 2 places according to the Country coefficient. Germany and England each have 2 clubs with a negative performance, namely Union Berlin 6.0 and Eintracht 9.5 for Germany, or Manchester United 7.0 and Newcastle 8.0 for England. In comparison, Italy and France do not have a single club with a negative performance. Italian clubs are all in the category good(3) or above.

[bugylibicska]

All the results for the English and German teams were more or less as expected, no surprises, bar Liverpool's fiasco. The consequences for Liverpool dropping out could spell a disaster for English hopes to start the next season with 5 CL teams. Actually all 5 of their teams might be wiped out, but more realistically probably 2 survive. Germany could have 3 teams in the next round, maybe 2 seems more realistic. Fascinating week coming up!

[Overgame]

If:
Real - Barelona - Atlético win: Spain 3x2+3 = 9 points (1.125 coefficient)
West Ham - Leverkusen is a draw
Bayern - Arsenal is a draw (Arsenal qualifies): Germany 2x1 + 1 = 3 points (0.428 coefficient)
Liverpool and Aston Villa loses (Lille qualifies): England 2x1 +1 = 3 points (0.375 coefficient)
Benfica wins: France: 1x2 + 1 = 3 points (0.500 coefficient)

Italy 3 teams left
Spain 3 teams left
Germany, England and France 1 team left
Portugal also with a team
And then one turkish or a greek team, one belgian or a second greek team

Italy would have secured the top spot, France would be out and Spain would be chasing England and Germany.

[matt]

The situation for England now is so bad that Stuttgart could celebrate reaching CL football...tomorrow night, pending EL and ECL results.

[BurningStorm]

Yeah, if Liverpool and West Ham go out, it's over. Not 100%, but almost safe.

Dortmund, currently 5th in Bundesliga, deserve to be there again. And if Leipzig end up 5th they are also competitive enough to play CL football as we saw in both legs against Real.

[TommyChat]

Yeah, if Liverpool and West Ham go out, it's over. Not 100%, but almost safe.

Dortmund, currently 5th in Bundesliga, deserve to be there again. And if Leipzig end up 5th they are also competitive enough to play CL football as we saw in both legs against Real.

I'd guess that right now, France may actually have bigger chances. At least both of their ties tomorrow are open.

[bugylibicska]

All the results for the English and German teams were more or less as expected, no surprises, bar Liverpool's fiasco. The consequences for Liverpool dropping out could spell a disaster for English hopes to start the next season with 5 CL teams. Actually all 5 of their teams might be wiped out, but more realistically probably 2 survive. Germany could have 3 teams in the next round, maybe 2 seems more realistic. Fascinating week coming up!

If Villa go out at Lille England are wiped out. To be fair they had a tough draw, but if you've the best league in the world and no team in the 3 semi finals...it'd be extraordinary!

[babaluj1]

English clubs are weak this season, it was clear allredy in GS. Germany is now a big favorite for second place in Country coefficient. France have some chances for second place,if Marseille and Lille pass to semifinale,but not much.

[perica]

Spain is out because a relegation level team won the EL last year, played in CL Groups, got 0-2-4 and caused Spain to divide by 8 instead of 7.
Osasuna's August elimination was the cherry on top.
Next year the conditions change because of no more transfer from CL to EL and EL to ECL, and a completely different bonus points system.

That’s my point, this year Spain with Osasuna (0.5 points), Sevilla (6) and Real Betis (7), a total of 13.5 points (1.688 contribution to country) didn’t have a “deep bench”.

For example 6-8 teams for England got 31 points(3.875), Italy 6&7 (no got 33 (4.714) even Germany 6&7 got 15.5 (2.214). Italy and Germany also have the benefit of the total being divided by 7 and not 8.

For the clubs coming from the strongest 5 Big leagues, we can give a general evaluation of the performances by the points won:

below 10 points - negative (1)
10-14 points-enough (2)
15-19 points-good(3)
20-24 points - very good (4)
25 and more points - excellent (5)

The Spaniards have as many as three clubs with a negative performance this season: Ossasuna 0.5 (catastrophe), Sevilla 6.0, Real Betis 7.0. This is the main reason why they are not in the game for the Top 2 places according to the Country coefficient. Germany and England each have 2 clubs with a negative performance, namely Union Berlin 6.0 and Eintracht 9.5 for Germany, or Manchester United 7.0 and Newcastle 8.0 for England. In comparison, Italy and France do not have a single club with a negative performance. Italian clubs are all in the category good(3) or above.

There should be more osasuna look like catastrophes for spain if uefa has not improvised with competition format by protecting big four leagues. Out of 7 teams, 6 of them clinch the group stage at the begin of the season. Multiplying by 6 games yields 36 secured games at the group stage. If any of those teams is obliged to play qualifying rounds, that number would be significantly decreased. I remember the summer when both st etienne and nice were eliminated by cypriot and danish club. Mainz was eliminated in the 3rd qr of europa league twice. Such scenarios are now impossible because such clubs received a bye to the group srage.

[Sagy]

That’s my point, this year Spain with Osasuna (0.5 points), Sevilla (6) and Real Betis (7), a total of 13.5 points (1.688 contribution to country) didn’t have a “deep bench”.

For example 6-8 teams for England got 31 points(3.875), Italy 6&7 (no got 33 (4.714) even Germany 6&7 got 15.5 (2.214). Italy and Germany also have the benefit of the total being divided by 7 and not 8.

For the clubs coming from the strongest 5 Big leagues, we can give a general evaluation of the performances by the points won:

below 10 points - negative (1)
10-14 points-enough (2)
15-19 points-good(3)
20-24 points - very good (4)
25 and more points - excellent (5)

The Spaniards have as many as three clubs with a negative performance this season: Ossasuna 0.5 (catastrophe), Sevilla 6.0, Real Betis 7.0. This is the main reason why they are not in the game for the Top 2 places according to the Country coefficient. Germany and England each have 2 clubs with a negative performance, namely Union Berlin 6.0 and Eintracht 9.5 for Germany, or Manchester United 7.0 and Newcastle 8.0 for England. In comparison, Italy and France do not have a single club with a negative performance. Italian clubs are all in the category good(3) or above.

There should be more osasuna look like catastrophes for spain if uefa has not improvised with competition format by protecting big four leagues. Out of 7 teams, 6 of them clinch the group stage at the begin of the season. Multiplying by 6 games yields 36 secured games at the group stage. If any of those teams is obliged to play qualifying rounds, that number would be significantly decreased. I remember the summer when both st etienne and nice were eliminated by cypriot and danish club. Mainz was eliminated in the 3rd qr of europa league twice. Such scenarios are now impossible because such clubs received a bye to the group srage.

That’s why I have an issue with bonus points to teams that didn’t have to qualify for league stage.

Minor correction, it’s 48 games now (UCL and UEL teams are guaranteed 8 games each).

[bert.kassies]

That’s why I have an issue with bonus points to teams that didn’t have to qualify for league stage.

"Bonus" points in qualifying rounds do not count for the country coefficient. That's why I prefer to call them "qualifying points". Without these points almost all clubs of "lower ranked" countries would have the same coefficient for seeding.

[eye]

That’s why I have an issue with bonus points to teams that didn’t have to qualify for league stage.

"Bonus" points in qualifying rounds do not count for the country coefficient. That's why I prefer to call them "qualifying points". Without these points almost all clubs of "lower ranked" countries would have the same coefficient for seeding.

I think @Sagy is referring to clubs that have direct qualification to league stage of CL and the bonus of 6 points (4 in the previous ranking system) and didn't need to play a single qualification match to get this bonus.