Battle for important ranking positions 2023-24

[TommyChat]

England is 5 points behind Germany with only Villa remaing.
If Lille won the PSO France would be 11 points behind Germany with 3 teams remaining, and seeing the draw all 3 in finals would be possible so Aston Villa actually helped Germany in EPS.

[TommyChat]

Oh Italy officially locked top 2, and they are 0.027 behind Spain for 2nd in 5year ranking

[eye]

Season's top2 chances and 5 year ranking chances when each of the 14.348.907 remaining possible outcomes has same probability

[greenbay]

Almost perfect scenario for the Bundesliga this week. If I'm not entirely mistaken, the three German sides need combined 4 points from their six semi finals matches to clinch the 5th CL berth for next season. So even if none makes it to the finals, two wins are enough, maybe less if Villa and the French don't stay perfect. Crucial match of course is Dortmund vs PSG. A draw at home, a loss in Paris, and the task for Bayern and Leverkusen will even be reduced to one win combined or two draws combined in their four matches.

[greenbay]

So btw, this year’s ranking proves how flawed the whole thing is. Italy didn‘t have a single team in the CL quarterfinals. Yet they are #1. No way.

[babaluj1]

England is 5 points behind Germany with only Villa remaing.
If Lille won the PSO France would be 11 points behind Germany with 3 teams remaining, and seeing the draw all 3 in finals would be possible so Aston Villa actually helped Germany in EPS.

An ideal outcome for Germany in the quarter-finals, Arsenal and West Ham United were eliminated in straight games. In addition, City and Liverpool failed and Germany already secured second place in the quarter-finals.

[babaluj1]

All those clubs listed above with negative performances would have big problems in the CL qualifications and most of them would certainly be eliminated in the qualifications. They are not top clubs in their respective leagues fighting for the championship title, therefore they are not untouchable.
All those third and lower placed clubs of the strongest leagues should be sent to the qualifiers, so let them prove that they deserve the GS CL. But those qualifications should be the Swiss system, so the luck of the draw plays a minimal role. Let's say 125 clubs in 5 strong groups according to UEFA rating. Each club plays 4 games with clubs outside its strong group, 2 at home, 2 away. The first 20 go to the CL, the second 20 to the EL, the third 36 to the ECL. You leave direct places in the CL to the champions and runners-up of the Top 5 countries, and to the champions of countries from 6-10 places, as well as the current winner of the CL. With the Swiss system, you protect all clubs from an unlucky draw, and even with one defeat, you can reach the CL with 9 points.

I like where you are going with this.

My concern is that 125 is too small a number and will really hurt lesser ranked countries in terms of how many teams they send to Europe.

Given some teams today have to play 8 games to get to league stage and many play 6 qualifying games, it is not unreasonable to have the new qualifying include 6 rounds as well. I would have 7 groups of 24 for a total of 168 teams in the “Swiss qualifying” each team plays six teams, one from each of the other groups. Each country gets the same allocation as today, non-champion from the lowest x countries have to play in pre-qualifying home and away to reduce the total number on teams in qualifying to 168. I think that next season we expect about 192 teams, if that is correct then 48 teams will have to pre-qualify. This means, if my math is correct, that non-champions from countries 35-55 (CW from 35-44 are given a pass) will have to participate in the pre-qualifying (which will be seeded based on club not country).

Q1 in UCOL next year will have 52 teams with countries 30-55 represented. This means that less teams will be eliminated after only two games while many teams will have a better opportunity to be placed in the “right” competition.

Following was based on an error in number of team taking place in qualifying

I don’t think that this change (37 vs 26 teams eliminated after 1 round, 2 games) is too drastic. If that is a problem, simply have the Swiss qualifying include 7 groups of 26 team for 6 games). This way the pre-qualifying includes only 46 team (only 23 teams eliminated after 1 round).

Apologies if the number of teams scheduled for next year is not 192, the numbers will be slightly different, but the concept is the same.

*** Edited to correct numbers

Do clubs like Hacken, Sheriff or Bačka Topola deserve to play GS EL this season? Or clubs like Bredablik, Čukarički or Trnava in GS ECL? They absolutely do not deserve GS with their quality, they serve as cannon fodder there. How do they get to GS? A privileged path for champions or a privileged direct place, or the crazy luck of the nockout draw.
The privileged path for champions should be abolished, it has brought nothing good, only injustice. A good part of the privileged direct places should be abolished. Instead of knockout qualifications, introduce qualifications using the Swiss system.
This is the right way to raise the quality and strength of all 3 UEFA leagues, if you want to give it an advantage to champions,then let it be privileged bonus points in Swiss qualifiers 1, 2 or 3.

[nogomet]

[nogomet]

[Cloakmaster]

So btw, this year’s ranking proves how flawed the whole thing is. Italy didn‘t have a single team in the CL quarterfinals. Yet they are #1. No way.

It gives respect to the fact, that european football is more than just champions leauge. Italy has three clubs in the semi-finals, as well as Germany. To be the best nation, ALL your berths have to perforn. Sevilla and ManU, and Newcastle did NOT perform in CL, so England and Spain are not top of the year. The weakest Italian Team got more points, than three of the teams from Spain together. Germany had one weak berth, Union. That's why Germany is second, and Italy is first. And I totally agree with that.

[greenbay]

It gives respect to the fact, that european football is more than just champions leauge.

No doubt. Still it's flawed.

For example:
Dortmund have played PSG, Milan and Newcastle, PSV and Atletico. For 24 points.
Atalanta have played Sporting, Graz, Częstochowa, Sporting again and Liverpool. For 22 points.

I guess now one will argue that 24-22 represents a fair distribution of points amongst those two teams with respect to the corresponding schedules.

And that's the flaw. Which was always inherent and even became bigger now with Conference League.

Newcastle United were eliminated in a group with Dortmund, PSG and Milan in CL. 1w, 2d, 3l. No shame in that. For 8 points.
Lille played a bunch of minnows before they finally met a team being level to Newcastle United and were eliminated. They never faced the likes of Dortmund, PSG or Milan. Still they've amassed 18.5 points.

I guess now one will argue that 18.5-8 in favor of Lille represents a fair distribution of points amongst those two teams with respect to the corresponding schedules.

Flawed!

That's like awarding the Premier League teams an extra 20 points at first, but then later argue that Ipswich deserve that 4th CL spot because as of now their 89 points in the Championship are better than the now 63+20 points of Aston Villa.

[nogomet]

UEFA needs an Elo type of point system. If FIFA could have done it, UEFA can so too. This whole coefficient thing is outdated.

[babaluj1]

So btw, this year’s ranking proves how flawed the whole thing is. Italy didn‘t have a single team in the CL quarterfinals. Yet they are #1. No way.

It gives respect to the fact, that european football is more than just champions leauge. Italy has three clubs in the semi-finals, as well as Germany. To be the best nation, ALL your berths have to perforn. Sevilla and ManU, and Newcastle did NOT perform in CL, so England and Spain are not top of the year. The weakest Italian Team got more points, than three of the teams from Spain together. Germany had one weak berth, Union. That's why Germany is second, and Italy is first. And I totally agree with that.

The most realistic scoring would be for CL to win 4 points, EL to win 3 points and ECL to win 2 points. Even if there were points like that, Italy and Germany would be Top 2, they are dominant this season.

[Cloakmaster]

Well, the basic Idea is, that a win is still a win. Yes, Lille played minor oponents, but, Lille are minors themselves. I dont like that over-protecting the big clubs. The basic rule is still: if you want to become champion, you need to win the games.


I play table-tennis, there we have the TTR system: If i'd beat the world champoin, I'd get a whole bunch of TTR points. If the campions beats be, he will get none, becaue i am like ten leagues below him.

Elo (that's chess?) seems to work similar.

[eye]

The only ranking system that is fair is the one you are facing every opponent like the domestic leagues. All the rest ranking systems are not fair by default and they also involve draws which might be good or bad. UEFA ranking system is not fair of course but it is working well for the purposes that it is designed.
Many are complaining that it is unfair because the difference of the awarded points at competitions is not logical mainly due to the EPS ranking. But what is the reality? EPS are extra spots to 2 countries at CL so it makes sense that such spots should be awarded to countries that have more depth in their league so when there are 3 clubs from Italy and Germany at EL's and ECL's SFs and just 1 from England and none from Spain it is logical Italy and Germany to get an extra CL spot. Actually CL results shouldn't have counted at the EPS ranking at all. What's the point of having a 5th Spanish club in CL when there were 3 Spanish clubs at CL's QFs but all rest 5 clubs were eliminated? It is like claiming Scotland deserves a third CL spot if Celtic and Rangers had somehow reached CL's SFs
Although I am against the whole EPS thing. While the whole EPS race is exciting to follow during season I would prefer these spots to be given based on the 5 years country ranking. 1 direct spot to the leading country and second spot to the CL-nc path and adding the 5th of 2nd ranked country and the 2nd of 16th ranked country to the access list of this path. 1st and 2nd place of country rankings should differ from 3rd and 4th place (at least 1st)