Battle for important ranking positions 2023-24

[dnina10]

Starting this topic nice and early, seeing that qualification for the European club competitions 2024-25 starts soon. Will be analyzing the battles in better detail sometime between now and Wednesday

[dnina10]

Apologies everyone, will get to it a day or two later. I had started the analysis then carelessly closed the window without saving my work. Will need to rewrite it when I'm more focused. I do apologize for the inconvenience

[dnina10]

Okay, so will have to try and memorize what I wrote last night before I carelessly closed the tab.

Anyhow, I know this season isn't over yet, however, we can already start to look at the battles for next season. Remember that the 2023/24 season will be the basis for the Access List for the 2025/26 UEFA season. So, let's take a look at what will be up for contention next season.

5th place: France, Netherlands - This is a two-horse race. With it looking like France will hold on to 5th spot at the end of this season, the one thing the Dutch can do is make it competitive going into next season. Just 0.814 separates the two at this point, though that could increase (or decrease) before the start of the summer. After all, it truly is Netherlands' last chance to catch France before the new format, where it will really be too late then.

Portugal is way too far back to have a say in the race for 5th and even 6th and would need a monster year (plus a ton of help) to move up the rankings. Fortunately for them, 7th is theirs, with no one else anywhere near them.

8th, 9th, 10th: Belgium, Scotland, Austria, Turkey - Here is where things could get more interesting. The battle here is really for 8th/9th and 10th, having at least 3 GS teams for the former, having an auto CL spot for the latter. Belgium is virtually assured a top 9 spot given where they are heading into next season. If the 2022/23 season ends well for them, they could even have 8th spot all wrapped up. Scotland is in serious trouble of falling out of the top 10 if they have a repeat year to this one in 2023/24. There's just no way that they can get away with another 3.500 season and expect to stay in the top 10, let alone top 9. So, Austria and Turkey smell blood. The latter is having a phenomenal season, and with them only having 4 teams in Europe next campaign, they have a serious chance at catching, and passing, Austria and Scotland. As things stand, the Turks are 1.800 and 4.050 of the other two, respectively. They could certainly pass Austria before a ball is kicked in 2023/24, and could mount some serious pressure on Scotland if their 4 teams go deep in Europe this spring. Add to the fact that Turkey will likely have a very strong lineup of clubs in Europe next season, Austria and (especially) Scotland better watch out.

12th, 13th, 14th, 15th: Serbia (5 teams in Europe next season), Switzerland (5), Norway (4), Ukraine (5), Denmark (4), Czechia (4), Israel (4), Greece (5) - This is going to be a great battle for the other 4 spots which allow 2 CL places and 5 European ones. Remember, 12th spot gives two EL places, 13th/14th guarantees EL GS (via CH in CL PO at least), and 15th allows for 5 European spots. Currently, the last three NAs mentioned do not have a team left in Europe for 2022/23. With that said, this could really be anyone's game. The range between Serbia and Greece is currently 5.750, and could increase depending on how Partizan does in the ECL KOs. With that said though, things should be very intriguing here. Serbia will have 5 teams in Europe next season. Whether that will be a good thing remains to be seen. Greece will also have 5 teams, but it's very likely they will have their five strongest teams, which makes a solid season quite promising. Denmark and Switzerland could struggle if their current top 4/5 make Europe, while Norway, Israel and Czechia could all have fantastic campaigns if their strongest teams perform well. Ukraine will be a coin toss, largely coming down to whether their clubs will do anything meaningful in Europe. Without a doubt, this will be the race to watch.

20th, 21st, 22nd: Croatia, Sweden, Romania, Cyprus, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria - Seven countries battling it out for three spots which will allow their CH to start in CL Q2 come 2025/26. It may seem somewhat insignificant, but remember, starting at CL Q2 means just one win will ensure GS football. As things stand, 4 points separate Croatia and Bulgaria here. It is worth remembering that all seven NAs here bar Croatia has a team left in Europe, in either the EL (Hungary) or ECL (the other five). A whopping 5.500 is the difference between Croatia and Bulgaria right now, though the latter could cut into that before the end of the season. Russia is currently 22nd, but of course their clubs will (almost surely) be banned again next season. That means they won't stay 22nd next fall. Romania is less than a point behind Russia right now, which could be erased completely depending on CFR Cluj in the ECL KO. Outside of that, look out for this group next season.

Skipping the race for 29th (as there won't be one)

31st, 32nd, 33rd, 34th (depending on LIE): Liechtenstein, Ireland, Finland, Slovenia, Latvia, Kosovo, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Northern Ireland - Another large clump of NAs here. Liechtenstein will secure a spot if (presumably) Vaduz makes at least the ECL Q3. So, two spots, which sends the CW into EL Q1, and 34th, which will guarantee N2 of domestic league ECL Q2 (if LIE finishes 33rd or higher) are up for grabs. Let's assume LIE will snatch a top 33 place. Now we're dealing with 8 NAs for 3 important places. Latvia could have a solid year if Valmiera goes far in (ECL) qualifying. Since RFS and Riga FC will also be in ECL Q, it looks promising for them. Of course, Slovenia will be expected to take at least 33rd. Many of these spots will be up for grabs, providing for an entertaining battle here.

35th, 36th, 37th, 38th: Latvia, Kosovo, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Northern Ireland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Faroe Islands, Lithuania, Estonia - The first five listed all have a shout for 32nd/33rd/34th, but they all have to look right below them in the rankings, as their places aren't safe. The first four listed occupy places 35th to 38th, but NAs 39th to 43rd could also have a say. Four of these NAs already have their teams confirmed while Estonia has all but one, with Nomme Kalju likely to be the last team. Estonia could be a threat here, as they will likely have their strongest lineup of clubs available. Northern Ireland also has the potential to make a run. Of the current crop to remain in the top 38, Kazakhstan looks to be in the most bother without Kairat being in Europe. The importance of this race is that it allows the CW to start in ECL Q2. Should be fascinating to see what happens here.

Battle to avoid the bottom five: Iceland (3), Albania (4), Wales (4), Belarus (4), Gibraltar (3), North Macedonia (4), Montenegro (3), Andorra (3) - Here we go again with another massive clump of NAs, 8 of them to be exact. Half of them will have 3 teams in Europe next season, half of them 4. The aim? To avoid the bottom five, which will confine them to 3 European spots in 2025/26. A total of 1.418 separates Iceland and Andorra right now, which may seem like nothing, but can change very quickly. Iceland, Montenegro and Andorra will have the (dis)advantage of seeing their champions start in CL PR (along with the already doomed San Marino). If we have a repeat of last year with the Icelandic champion winning it, they can basically assure themselves a top 50 finish. Otherwise, could be tricky for them. As for who could have the advantage, it's hard to say right now. Iceland should be safe, but you never know. Montenegro and Andorra will likely be in the bottom 5 at season's end, but all it takes is for a run to happen. Less than 0.100 separates Belarus and Gibraltar right now, where the line is drawn. Keep that in mind as this points to another very close one next summer

[Ricardo]

5/6/7: I wouldn't put Portugal out of the fight yet. there is still 1.5 years to play
For this year Ajax is terribly out of form and PSV have sold their 2 best players. They probably won't be of lot of help anymore. Of couse it ain't over till the fat lady sings, but France is the clear favorite. Dutch drop back and Portugal will come closer. There might be a fight for 6/7.....

[dnina10]

5/6/7: I wouldn't put Portugal out of the fight yet. there is still 1.5 years to play
For this year Ajax is terribly out of form and PSV have sold their 2 best players. They probably won't be of lot of help anymore. Of couse it ain't over till the fat lady sings, but France is the clear favorite. Dutch drop back and Portugal will come closer. There might be a fight for 6/7.....

Definitely agree that France will hold on to 5th, and somewhat comfortably too.

Netherlands I expect to hold on to 6th with the distance they have between themselves and Portugal. Things would have to go very wrong for you guys to mess that up. We're talking over 5 points difference mind you

[Agent327]

The Netherlands are notoriously good in squandering a top position with a terrible season. Unlike the Portuguese they don't need to have bad luck to perform abysmal.

And that's what makes them vulnerable. on the other hand, they have the strictest rules about transparency and financial fair play (at least that's what I heard) and maybe that's for the better. (Although irresponsible investments are not new to them either)

[Clockingbell]

It's been a very long time ago that The Netherlands have had so many good seasons in a row. We finally seem to understand the importance of European football, so abysmal seasons like 2017-2018 won't happen as often.

[seso]

The three most recent seasons of Germany and Italy (20/21, 21/22, 22/23) have been very similar up to now (country coefficient-wise).

[Agent327]

The three most recent seasons of Germany and Italy (20/21, 21/22, 22/23) have been very similar up to now (country coefficient-wise).

If Juve would deliver what we used to see, this would be a better season already. In general, it looks like Italian clubs are on the rise.

[BurningStorm]

The three most recent seasons of Germany and Italy (20/21, 21/22, 22/23) have been very similar up to now (country coefficient-wise).

Currently it's 14.500 to 13.500 for Germany, but I see good chances for Italy to win this H2H in the season ranking, because first of all they had luckier CL draws (Porto and Tottenham as pot 1 teams in the CL, while Leipzig got City from pot 1 & Bayern got PSG from pot 2), then they have two teams in the Conference League, what normally should be a disadvantage compared to Europa League, but for UEFA points it's an advantage. So easier opponents there as well. Imagine Union end up 3rd instead of 2nd in their EL group and play Cluj instead of Ajax now. That's what happened to Lazio. Normally a weak result in their EL group, but a great chance for collecting a lot of points. And then there is the divider of 8 for Germany, so harder to collect points since one team was out in group stage (Köln).

But I agree with your post, it should be a close thing again, regardless who wins the season H2H. Both leagues are on the rise while Spain lose points.

[seso]

The last time that Spain was not in the top two positions of UEFA Country Ranking was in 1998! Could we see something like that in the next few seasons??

[amenina]

Netherlands passed France for 5th place: https://kassiesa.net/uefa/data/method5/crank2024.html

[AlanK]

The last time that Spain was not in the top two positions of UEFA Country Ranking was in 1998! Could we see something like that in the next few seasons??

Could be, but the pendulum swings Had this conversation with others when Spain won nine of ten CL and EL titles from 2014 through 2018. Lorric told me this would end and England would rise to the top once more--I agreed fully. It may take awhile, but chances are good that we'll be back

[eye]

Wrong thread

[dnina10]

Netherlands passed France for 5th place: https://kassiesa.net/uefa/data/method5/crank2024.html

No they haven't. You did not take into consideration the bonus points for CL GS