Battle for important ranking positions 2023-24

[BurningStorm]

But Italy is now 2 coef points ahead of Germany and England, see https://kassiesa.net/uefa/EPS2024-25.html

Ah yes, with the 5 safe points it looks like it is done, congrats Serie A.

[Deneverember]

After the draw, the yearly max coefficents changes.

England chance reduce max 22,500 because Arsenal and Manchester City on the same branch.
Italy chance reduce 22,571 because Milan and Roma will play each other. ( But Italy have must five points, 0,714 coefficients)

After the draw Italy took the lead max coefficient from England.

This is the max yearly coefficients after the draws.

Italy 22,571
England 22,500
Germany 21,214
France 20,750
Spain 17,687
Czechia 16,250
Belgium 15,600
Greece 14,600
Turkey 14,500
Portugal 12,666

This is the max yearly coefficients before the draws.

England 23,250
Italy 23,143
Germany 21,214
France 20,750
Spain 17,687
Czechia 16,250
Belgium 15,600
Greece 14,600
Turkey 14,500
Portugal 12,666

[eye]

Country ranking with max points

[THEPOSH]

Somehow Denmark is still hanging on to 15th with now only Greece to threaten. The draw today will be crucial.

Denmark really has crazy luck. Maccabi Haifa took a point from Fiorentina, and Maccabi T.A. all the effort destroyed. The Greeks can hardly win another 2,000 coefficients, even if they can choose their own opponents. Viktoria and Brugge might be the best choice.

Well they got Brugge and Fenerbache. Not the easiest opponents (Pilzen) but also avoided the top-5 clubs. It aint over yet.

[seso]

Greek sites started exaggerating, as always after a positive result! They mention that with another season like this one, Greece could be closer to 10th position rather than 15th!

I would say, why not aim for 6th position as in 2002-03??!!

[Squid]

A tough draw for the Premier League contingent, and England’s hopes of gaining a fifth Champions League spot took a real hit.

With Arsenal drawn against heavyweights Bayern Munich and Manchester City to face European juggernauts Real Madrid, both will need to be at their best to make it through to the semis. Another blow for England’s coefficient hopes is the fact that the winners of those two ties will face each other, so only one of England’s two remaining competitors can make it to the Champions League final.

Liverpool and West Ham were kept apart in the Europa League draw and could in theory meet in the final. However, while Liverpool may be pleased to have been drawn against Atalanta, West Ham face a real test as they were handed a tie with Bayer Leverkusen. Xabi Alonso’s side are, incredibly, still unbeaten across all competitions this season.

Aston Villa were also given a potentially tricky Europa Conference League draw, as they’ll face Lille and then the winners of Olympiacos vs Fenerbahce.

It all means that England’s chances of getting an extra spot in next season’s Champions League dropped to 70.6% after the draw.



Italy’s chances crept back up to 96.9% with one of Milan and Roma now guaranteed to be in the semi-final of the Europa League and Fiorentina given a favourable draw in the Conference League. They face Viktoria Plzen in their quarter-final and then could play Club Brugge or PAOK in the semis. For them, avoiding Aston Villa was a big bonus.

Germany’s chances shot back up to 29.1%, with Leverkusen likely to fancy their chances against West Ham, and Borussia Dortmund in with a decent shot of making the Champions League final as they are on the opposite side of the draw to the majority of the big sides. They face Atlético Madrid in the quarters and then potentially the winner of PSG vs Barcelona in the semis.

[babaluj1]

So two ties between Germany and England: Arsenal vs Bayern and West Ham vs Leverkusen. A last chance for Germany? Both need to win it to keep the chances.

Italy also more in danger than expected? One safe EL semi finalist (Milan vs Roma), on the other hand one of them is out for sure plus Atalanta most likely too - against Liverpool. If Fiorentina gets a hard draw in the ECL it's far from over with maybe only one team left. Most likely scenario is still ENG & ITA with the top 2 spots, but the draws make it a bit more open. Maybe it all depends on Fiorentina.

A very bad draw for the English. They had a good draw in the round of 16, but a very difficult one in the quarterfinals. Arsenal-Bayern, Real-City, Liverpool-Atalanta, Bayer-West Ham and Aston Villa-Lille. It's a good draw for the Germans and the French, they have to knock out the English, so their chances will increase significantly. If 3 English clubs pass, probably England will take second place, with 2 clubs very questionable, with one club not at all. An excellent draw for the Italians, they have a big advantage and 5 points secured in the Milan vs Roma match, and Fiorentina is also the favorite vs Viktoria. The French should go through with 3 clubs to keep their chances, and the Germans would have solid chances with 2 clubs if the English fail.

[babaluj1]

Somehow Denmark is still hanging on to 15th with now only Greece to threaten. The draw today will be crucial.

Denmark really has crazy luck. Maccabi Haifa took a point from Fiorentina, and Maccabi T.A. all the effort destroyed. The Greeks can hardly win another 2,000 coefficients, even if they can choose their own opponents. Viktoria and Brugge might be the best choice.

Well they got Brugge and Fenerbache. Not the easiest opponents (Pilzen) but also avoided the top-5 clubs. It aint over yet.

Good draw for the Greeks, they have a chance, but they are not favorites.

[mitsaras]

Good draw for the Greeks, they have a chance, but they are not favorites.

Before second leg, Greece was 0,1% possible to finish 15th, 0,4% 16th and 99,3% 17th
How possible is now P15?

I think it's more than 10%. Not a good chance, but Greece is still alive...

[elkjiaer is back]

Good draw for the Greeks, they have a chance, but they are not favorites.

Before second leg, Greece was 0,1% possible to finish 15th, 0,4% 16th and 99,3% 17th
How possible is now P15?

I think it's more than 10%. Not a good chance, but Greece is still alive...

Before last night this was the situation for top15 finish:
74.7% Israel
25.1% Denmark
0.2% Greece

This was mostly due to Maccabi Tel Aviv having 99% chance to qualify against Olympiacos . So the shocking result from last night changed completely the situation
Now
91.9 Denmark
8.1% Greece
And Israel is out of the race

[babaluj1]

I compared the ratings of the clubs in the quarter-finals and came to the conclusion that the 4 favorites are Liverpool vs Atalanta, Bayer vs West Ham United, Fenerbahce vs Olympiakos and Fiorentina vs Viktoria.
We can name Manchester City vs Real Madrid, Milan vs Roma, Bruges vs PAOK and Aston Villa vs Lille as easy favourites.
Arsenal-Bayern, Atletico-Borussia, PSG-Barca, Benfica-Marseille matches should be completely uncertain.

[offside]

I compared the ratings of the clubs in the quarter-finals and came to the conclusion that the 4 favorites are Liverpool vs Atalanta, Bayer vs West Ham United, Fenerbahce vs Olympiakos and Fiorentina vs Viktoria.
We can name Manchester City vs Real Madrid, Milan vs Roma, Bruges vs PAOK and Aston Villa vs Lille as easy favourites.
Arsenal-Bayern, Atletico-Borussia, PSG-Barca, Benfica-Marseille matches should be completely uncertain.

Manchester City - Real Madrid goes in the uncertain ties: they are two of the absolutely best sides in Europe at the moment, and there is not a clear favorite in this clash. I hope to have a chance to watch these two matches, it is going to be very interesting.

[babaluj1]

I compared the ratings of the clubs in the quarter-finals and came to the conclusion that the 4 favorites are Liverpool vs Atalanta, Bayer vs West Ham United, Fenerbahce vs Olympiakos and Fiorentina vs Viktoria.
We can name Manchester City vs Real Madrid, Milan vs Roma, Bruges vs PAOK and Aston Villa vs Lille as easy favourites.
Arsenal-Bayern, Atletico-Borussia, PSG-Barca, Benfica-Marseille matches should be completely uncertain.

Manchester City - Real Madrid goes in the uncertain ties: they are two of the absolutely best sides in Europe at the moment, and there is not a clear favorite in this clash. I hope to have a chance to watch these two matches, it is going to be very interesting.

That's not what I'm saying, that's what the current ratings of the clubs say. As a criterion, I took 100 or more points of difference in the rating on Clubelo, or 5% or more difference on the Opta rating for expressed favorites.
For the criterion of a slight favorite I took 50 to 100 points difference on Clubelo, or 2.5 to 5% difference on Opta rating.
Below 50 points difference on Clubelo and below 2.5% difference on Opta rating are completely equal matches. Both ratings give a small advantage to Manchester City, on Clubelo the current difference is 85 points, and on Opta rating 3.2%, that means City is a slight favorite.

[eye]

Country ranking and season's top2 probabilities based on the 4.052.555.153.018.976.267 possible results we may have at the 39 remaining matches

[seso]

Country ranking based on the 4.052.555.153.018.976.267 possible results we may have at the 39 remaining matches

Very nice, eye!