With the 2022/23 UEFA competitions in the semi-final stage, it is time to look at the title holder places, and the possible vacancies and rebalancing, for the 2023/24 UEFA competitions.
CL title holders (guaranteed place in CL group stage)
Man City (2nd in league, still in cup)
Almost certainly will qualify for CL group stage
Real Madrid (2nd in league, still in cup)
Almost certainly will qualify for CL group stage
Milan (5th in league)
Currently out of the CL group stage places by 3 points, after the point deduction of Juve is reversed. May also qualify for EL or ECL, or even entirely out of Europe (if say Fiorentina win the cup and they drop to 7th).
Inter (6th in league, still in cup)
2 points behind Milan. Will these two teams push for CL thru the league, or save their legs for the derby CL semis?
Title holder places for 2023/24 UEFA competitions
Title holder places for 2023/24 UEFA competitions
Last edited by amenina on Fri Apr 21, 2023 02:35, edited 1 time in total.
EL title holders (guaranteed place in CL group stage)
Juventus (3rd in league, still in cup)
With the decision last night, now back to 3rd with a 3-point lead ahead of Roma and 6-point gap ahead of Milan. The season looked lost just a few months ago, now perhaps favourites for a top-four finish and even a cup and EL double.
Roma (4th in league)
Chasing CL on two fronts, will it be more European trophies for Mourinho? If the final is between Juve and Roma, we may see a similar scenario as the Chelsea vs Arsenal final a few years ago: one team already guaranteed CL thru league, while the other must win to qualify for CL (although this year’s EL final will be played before the last round of Serie A).
Leverkusen (6th in league)
Top four looks unlikely (7 points behind), so even if they can qualify for Europe (top six or top seven depending on cup winners), it will be either EL or ECL.
Sevilla (13th in league)
Crazy as it sounds, but they are only 8 points behind 7th place for the ECL place (assuming Real win cup). They are also 8 points above relegation zone, so they may be able to relax a bit before once again beating off all challengers in the “Sevilla Cup”.
Juventus (3rd in league, still in cup)
With the decision last night, now back to 3rd with a 3-point lead ahead of Roma and 6-point gap ahead of Milan. The season looked lost just a few months ago, now perhaps favourites for a top-four finish and even a cup and EL double.
Roma (4th in league)
Chasing CL on two fronts, will it be more European trophies for Mourinho? If the final is between Juve and Roma, we may see a similar scenario as the Chelsea vs Arsenal final a few years ago: one team already guaranteed CL thru league, while the other must win to qualify for CL (although this year’s EL final will be played before the last round of Serie A).
Leverkusen (6th in league)
Top four looks unlikely (7 points behind), so even if they can qualify for Europe (top six or top seven depending on cup winners), it will be either EL or ECL.
Sevilla (13th in league)
Crazy as it sounds, but they are only 8 points behind 7th place for the ECL place (assuming Real win cup). They are also 8 points above relegation zone, so they may be able to relax a bit before once again beating off all challengers in the “Sevilla Cup”.
ECL title holders (guaranteed place in EL group stage; if they qualify for CL, they can choose which competition they enter)
AZ (4th in league)
Currently 5 points behind 2nd and 3rd place Ajax and PSV, who will play each other in the cup final, so their chances of getting the CL-Q3 or EL-PO spot is not too high. They are well placed for the ECL-Q3 spot, as they are 5 points above 5th place. If they get passed at worst they enter the Dutch play-offs for the ECL-Q2 spot.
Basel (6th in league)
They are just outside the European places by goal difference, but can easily climb up the table to get one of the ECL-Q2 places, the EL-PO spot (if they finish third and cup winners in top two), or even claim the CL-Q2 berth if they finish second as they are only 5 points behind. Interestingly, if they enter CL-Q2, they are not guaranteed a EL group stage berth unless they win their Q2 tie. If they lose, they drop down to EL-Q3 and may miss out on even ECL group stage. So financial wise, if they win ECL and finish second in leagues they may actually be better off choosing the EL group stage place instead of the CL-Q2 place (you know the Swiss are good at finance), although sporting wise no team would choose that.
Fiorentina (9th in league, still in cup)
They have a mountain to climb if they want to qualify for Europe thru the league (7 points behind 7th place), but have one foot in the cup final with a 2-0 away win in the 1st leg against Cremonese, so most likely will just focus on the two knockout competitions.
West Ham (15th in league)
Almost no chance for Europe domestically.
AZ (4th in league)
Currently 5 points behind 2nd and 3rd place Ajax and PSV, who will play each other in the cup final, so their chances of getting the CL-Q3 or EL-PO spot is not too high. They are well placed for the ECL-Q3 spot, as they are 5 points above 5th place. If they get passed at worst they enter the Dutch play-offs for the ECL-Q2 spot.
Basel (6th in league)
They are just outside the European places by goal difference, but can easily climb up the table to get one of the ECL-Q2 places, the EL-PO spot (if they finish third and cup winners in top two), or even claim the CL-Q2 berth if they finish second as they are only 5 points behind. Interestingly, if they enter CL-Q2, they are not guaranteed a EL group stage berth unless they win their Q2 tie. If they lose, they drop down to EL-Q3 and may miss out on even ECL group stage. So financial wise, if they win ECL and finish second in leagues they may actually be better off choosing the EL group stage place instead of the CL-Q2 place (you know the Swiss are good at finance), although sporting wise no team would choose that.
Fiorentina (9th in league, still in cup)
They have a mountain to climb if they want to qualify for Europe thru the league (7 points behind 7th place), but have one foot in the cup final with a 2-0 away win in the 1st leg against Cremonese, so most likely will just focus on the two knockout competitions.
West Ham (15th in league)
Almost no chance for Europe domestically.
Last edited by amenina on Fri Apr 21, 2023 15:09, edited 1 time in total.
So as it now (and very probably will not change) at CL the Italian clubs need to the trophy in order to take part at next CL while the other 2 semifinalists will get their spot domestically, the exactly opposite happen at EL since the Italian clubs will get their spot domestically but the other 2 semifinalists need the trophy in order to take part at next CL and most likely none of ECL semifinalists will qualify to a better competition that ECL next season so the trophy is their only way to be at EL
It is a bit weird what is happening with the Italian clubs this season. The ones that will probably qualify at next CL domestically are at EL SF while the ones that will probably not qualify are at CL SF. The almost sure champion and by far the best club of league is out of UEFA competitions by other Italian club and a club that will not probably qualify to next season's competitions is at ECL SF
As the scenario Basel winning ECL and being N2 domestically I think CL is their best option for financial reasons too. They will have to face a runner up from Belgium (Genk/USG), Ukraine (Dnipro/Zorya) or Greece(Panathinaikos/AEK) at Q2 as seeded. If they qualify the will get at minimum the same spot the ECL-W gives plus they would have more earnings from the 2 or 3 qualifying rounds and as maximum the by far more money of CL. If they fail at CL-Q2 they can still get the EL-GS by qualifying against 2 clubs of similar level at EL Q3 and EL PO or by winning one round will end at ECL and earn more or less same or more money. The difference in the amount of money of EL and ECL is not that big and the 3 qualification rounds plus the fact that it is easier to collect points and money at ECL will have as result to take back what they will loose by not playing at EL. If they don't qualify to any competition it means that most likely they wouldn't get many points at EL GS anyway so they will still loose some profit but not that much. Surely worth the risk to give up the secure GS spot.
It is a bit weird what is happening with the Italian clubs this season. The ones that will probably qualify at next CL domestically are at EL SF while the ones that will probably not qualify are at CL SF. The almost sure champion and by far the best club of league is out of UEFA competitions by other Italian club and a club that will not probably qualify to next season's competitions is at ECL SF
As the scenario Basel winning ECL and being N2 domestically I think CL is their best option for financial reasons too. They will have to face a runner up from Belgium (Genk/USG), Ukraine (Dnipro/Zorya) or Greece(Panathinaikos/AEK) at Q2 as seeded. If they qualify the will get at minimum the same spot the ECL-W gives plus they would have more earnings from the 2 or 3 qualifying rounds and as maximum the by far more money of CL. If they fail at CL-Q2 they can still get the EL-GS by qualifying against 2 clubs of similar level at EL Q3 and EL PO or by winning one round will end at ECL and earn more or less same or more money. The difference in the amount of money of EL and ECL is not that big and the 3 qualification rounds plus the fact that it is easier to collect points and money at ECL will have as result to take back what they will loose by not playing at EL. If they don't qualify to any competition it means that most likely they wouldn't get many points at EL GS anyway so they will still loose some profit but not that much. Surely worth the risk to give up the secure GS spot.
Interesting seeing all twelve teams how many currently need to win even just to get any European football never mind the prize for the win in their respective competition. 4 are out of the European places entirely though Fiorentina still have the domestic cup and 4 more are below the prize for the winner. Two teams in the CL semis currently out of the domestic CL places must be unusual.
With the Serie A positions 2-7 changing every week, and Italian teams still in contention to win any of the three European trophies, the scenarios of which Italian teams will qualify for Europe next season are endless.
Here is one scenario based on the current standings (I ignore head-to-head of teams tied on points for the moment and just use goal difference)
1 Napoli
2 Lazio
3 Juventus
4 Inter
5 Atalanta
6 Milan
7 Roma
Cup Fiorentina
CL Milan
EL Roma
ECL A team other than Fiorentina (and assuming they do not qualify for any part of CL or EL group stage, so ECL title holder place is used)
In this case, the Italian teams which qualify for CL group stage are: Milan, Roma, Napoli, Lazio and Juventus. Because of the rule of maximum 5 teams, Inter is moved down to EL group stage.
According to the regulations, one of the Italian teams originally to play in the EL group stage have to be moved to down to ECL group stage unless there is a vacancy in EL group stage.
https://documents.uefa.com/r/Regulation ... ion-Online
3.07 e
If the association is entitled to four places in the competition and neither titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League or UEFA Europa Conference League through its domestic competitions, the lowest-placed of the association’s UEFA Champions League representatives is automatically transferred to the UEFA Europa League (into the UEFA Europa League group stage) and, unless there is a vacancy to be filled in the UEFA Europa League group stage, the lowest-placed of the association’s UEFA Europa League representatives is automatically transferred to the UEFA Europa Conference League (into the group stage). The access list will be rebalanced accordingly in the UEFA Europa Conference League. In this case, the titleholders’ association is entitled to the following number of places in the UEFA club competitions: five in the UEFA Champions League group stage; two (three) in the UEFA Europa League group stage; one (none) in the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage; one in the UEFA Europa Conference League play-offs.
So this means Atalanta (as they are lower-placed in the access list to cup winners Fiorentina) is moved to ECL group stage, while Inter and Fiorentina will play in EL group stage.
However, as the regulations says, this does not apply if there is a vacancy in EL group stage. If Fiorentina win both ECL and Coppa Italia, then there is a vacancy in EL group stage, so Atalanta will stay in EL group stage taking that vacancy.
Alternatively, if Inter in 4th win Coppa Italia, the two Italian teams which originally enter EL group stage are Atalanta in 5th and Milan in 6th, but since Milan win CL and vacate their EL group stage place, Atalanta again will stay in EL group stage.
Note that this vacancy provision only applies to EL group stage, and not to EL play-offs or third qualifying round. For example, if AZ finish 3rd in Dutch league, giving them a spot in EL play-offs, and then win ECL and qualify for EL group stage, their spot in EL play-offs is vacated. However, Atalanta cannot be moved down from EL group stage to EL play-offs to take this spot, and still have to be moved to ECL group stage.
Here is one scenario based on the current standings (I ignore head-to-head of teams tied on points for the moment and just use goal difference)
1 Napoli
2 Lazio
3 Juventus
4 Inter
5 Atalanta
6 Milan
7 Roma
Cup Fiorentina
CL Milan
EL Roma
ECL A team other than Fiorentina (and assuming they do not qualify for any part of CL or EL group stage, so ECL title holder place is used)
In this case, the Italian teams which qualify for CL group stage are: Milan, Roma, Napoli, Lazio and Juventus. Because of the rule of maximum 5 teams, Inter is moved down to EL group stage.
According to the regulations, one of the Italian teams originally to play in the EL group stage have to be moved to down to ECL group stage unless there is a vacancy in EL group stage.
https://documents.uefa.com/r/Regulation ... ion-Online
3.07 e
If the association is entitled to four places in the competition and neither titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League or UEFA Europa Conference League through its domestic competitions, the lowest-placed of the association’s UEFA Champions League representatives is automatically transferred to the UEFA Europa League (into the UEFA Europa League group stage) and, unless there is a vacancy to be filled in the UEFA Europa League group stage, the lowest-placed of the association’s UEFA Europa League representatives is automatically transferred to the UEFA Europa Conference League (into the group stage). The access list will be rebalanced accordingly in the UEFA Europa Conference League. In this case, the titleholders’ association is entitled to the following number of places in the UEFA club competitions: five in the UEFA Champions League group stage; two (three) in the UEFA Europa League group stage; one (none) in the UEFA Europa Conference League group stage; one in the UEFA Europa Conference League play-offs.
So this means Atalanta (as they are lower-placed in the access list to cup winners Fiorentina) is moved to ECL group stage, while Inter and Fiorentina will play in EL group stage.
However, as the regulations says, this does not apply if there is a vacancy in EL group stage. If Fiorentina win both ECL and Coppa Italia, then there is a vacancy in EL group stage, so Atalanta will stay in EL group stage taking that vacancy.
Alternatively, if Inter in 4th win Coppa Italia, the two Italian teams which originally enter EL group stage are Atalanta in 5th and Milan in 6th, but since Milan win CL and vacate their EL group stage place, Atalanta again will stay in EL group stage.
Note that this vacancy provision only applies to EL group stage, and not to EL play-offs or third qualifying round. For example, if AZ finish 3rd in Dutch league, giving them a spot in EL play-offs, and then win ECL and qualify for EL group stage, their spot in EL play-offs is vacated. However, Atalanta cannot be moved down from EL group stage to EL play-offs to take this spot, and still have to be moved to ECL group stage.
Let's check in once again before the start of the semi-finals.
CL title holders (guaranteed place in CL group stage)
Man City (1st in league)
Already qualified for CL group stage. Feyenoord will be cheering for a league and CL double for them so the soon-to-be Dutch champions can get into Pot 1 for the CL group stage draw.
Real Madrid (3rd in league)
Almost certainly will qualify for CL group stage. Just won the cup, and nothing to play for in the rest of the season except for the CL title.
Inter (4th in league)
Won all 5 games (4 in league, 1 in cup) since reaching the Cl semi-finals. Now hold a 2-point lead over Milan. Probably will get CL or EL (thru league or cup) next year.
Milan (5th in league)
In contrast, Milan got 8 points in 4 games, which is not bad as they overtook Roma, but got overtaken by Inter themselves. Also 3 points behind Lazio in 3rd, and 3 points above Atalanta and Roma in 6th and 7th,
EL title holders (guaranteed place in CL group stage)
Juventus (2nd in league)
Only 7 points from last 4 Serie A games (plus knocked out in cup), but actually climbed one place due to bad form of Lazio. 5 points clear of Milan for the last CL place, but there are rumours that they will be banned by UEFA for next season even if they win EL (which is potentially good news for the France 3rd-placed team). Will they be the first European trophy title holders to not play in Europe since Marseille?
Roma (7th in league)
Tremendously bad form since EL quarter-finals, with only 2 points in 4 games, see them now 5 points behind top 4 and slipped to a non-European place (if Fiorentina win cup) or at best a ECL place (if Inter win cup).
Leverkusen (6th in league)
Top four is almost impossible, and barely holding off Wolfsburg (2 points behind) and Mainz (3 points behind) for a EL/ECL place.
Sevilla (11th in league)
Now only 3 points behind 7th for the ECL place with 5 matches to play. On current form and past European performance may actually be the favourites for EL.
ECL title holders (guaranteed place in EL group stage; if they qualify for CL, they can choose which competition they enter)
AZ (4th in league)
A minimum of ECL-Q3 place should be safe (6 points above with 3 matches left), they are fighting with Ajax for the EL-PO spot, as they are only 2 points behind.
Basel (5th in league)
The typical mid-table team (in a 10-team league), with mid-table form (2 wins and 2 losses in last 4 matches). Anything from CL-Q2 (2nd place), EL-PO (3rd place depending on cup winners), ECL-Q2 (4th or 5th place), or no Europe at all (6th place and below) is still possible.
Fiorentina (8th in league)
No need to think about qualifying for Europe thru the league, so to qualify for Europe next season they have to win either the Coppa or the ECL.
West Ham (15th in league)
No chance for Europe domestically, but also relatively safe from relegation.
CL title holders (guaranteed place in CL group stage)
Man City (1st in league)
Already qualified for CL group stage. Feyenoord will be cheering for a league and CL double for them so the soon-to-be Dutch champions can get into Pot 1 for the CL group stage draw.
Real Madrid (3rd in league)
Almost certainly will qualify for CL group stage. Just won the cup, and nothing to play for in the rest of the season except for the CL title.
Inter (4th in league)
Won all 5 games (4 in league, 1 in cup) since reaching the Cl semi-finals. Now hold a 2-point lead over Milan. Probably will get CL or EL (thru league or cup) next year.
Milan (5th in league)
In contrast, Milan got 8 points in 4 games, which is not bad as they overtook Roma, but got overtaken by Inter themselves. Also 3 points behind Lazio in 3rd, and 3 points above Atalanta and Roma in 6th and 7th,
EL title holders (guaranteed place in CL group stage)
Juventus (2nd in league)
Only 7 points from last 4 Serie A games (plus knocked out in cup), but actually climbed one place due to bad form of Lazio. 5 points clear of Milan for the last CL place, but there are rumours that they will be banned by UEFA for next season even if they win EL (which is potentially good news for the France 3rd-placed team). Will they be the first European trophy title holders to not play in Europe since Marseille?
Roma (7th in league)
Tremendously bad form since EL quarter-finals, with only 2 points in 4 games, see them now 5 points behind top 4 and slipped to a non-European place (if Fiorentina win cup) or at best a ECL place (if Inter win cup).
Leverkusen (6th in league)
Top four is almost impossible, and barely holding off Wolfsburg (2 points behind) and Mainz (3 points behind) for a EL/ECL place.
Sevilla (11th in league)
Now only 3 points behind 7th for the ECL place with 5 matches to play. On current form and past European performance may actually be the favourites for EL.
ECL title holders (guaranteed place in EL group stage; if they qualify for CL, they can choose which competition they enter)
AZ (4th in league)
A minimum of ECL-Q3 place should be safe (6 points above with 3 matches left), they are fighting with Ajax for the EL-PO spot, as they are only 2 points behind.
Basel (5th in league)
The typical mid-table team (in a 10-team league), with mid-table form (2 wins and 2 losses in last 4 matches). Anything from CL-Q2 (2nd place), EL-PO (3rd place depending on cup winners), ECL-Q2 (4th or 5th place), or no Europe at all (6th place and below) is still possible.
Fiorentina (8th in league)
No need to think about qualifying for Europe thru the league, so to qualify for Europe next season they have to win either the Coppa or the ECL.
West Ham (15th in league)
No chance for Europe domestically, but also relatively safe from relegation.
They should be able to play the Supercup even if banned from the next season, right? I would think so. That would be very weird. Given the bad relationship between Juve and UEFA since the Superleague attempted breakaway, they may even decide to boycott the game. Who knows, not likely but not impossibleamenina wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 00:56 Juventus (2nd in league)
but there are rumours that they will be banned by UEFA for next season even if they win EL (which is potentially good news for the France 3rd-placed team). Will they be the first European trophy title holders to not play in Europe since Marseille?
What would happen to the access list if Juve win the EL and later are banned?
International break hater
It depends if they finish in the top four of Serie A or not.matt wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 01:29They should be able to play the Supercup even if banned from the next season, right? I would think so. That would be very weird. Given the bad relationship between Juve and UEFA since the Superleague attempted breakaway, they may even decide to boycott the game. Who knows, not likely but not impossibleamenina wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 00:56 Juventus (2nd in league)
but there are rumours that they will be banned by UEFA for next season even if they win EL (which is potentially good news for the France 3rd-placed team). Will they be the first European trophy title holders to not play in Europe since Marseille?
What would happen to the access list if Juve win the EL and later are banned?
If they are in top four, then the EL title holder place is already vacated and given to France 3rd place. So in case that they are banned whoever is 5th in Italy will play in CL, and the EL/ECL places filled accordingly by league position.
If they are outside top four, after they are banned, the EL title holder place is then vacated, and likely also given to France 3rd place.
Regardless, the total number of teams from Italy playing in Europe should remain at 7 (possibly 8 depending on whether Fiorentina win Coppa and/or ECL).
I also doubt that they will still play Super Cup if they are banned. I think Marseille also did not play the year they were banned? Maybe the EL runners-up will fill the place.
1993 Super Cup was played between Milan, which took the place of Marseille, and Parma.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_European_Super_Cup
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_European_Super_Cup
Who would get the place in Pot 1 in CL?amenina wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 02:07It depends if they finish in the top four of Serie A or not.matt wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 01:29They should be able to play the Supercup even if banned from the next season, right? I would think so. That would be very weird. Given the bad relationship between Juve and UEFA since the Superleague attempted breakaway, they may even decide to boycott the game. Who knows, not likely but not impossibleamenina wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 00:56 Juventus (2nd in league)
but there are rumours that they will be banned by UEFA for next season even if they win EL (which is potentially good news for the France 3rd-placed team). Will they be the first European trophy title holders to not play in Europe since Marseille?
What would happen to the access list if Juve win the EL and later are banned?
If they are in top four, then the EL title holder place is already vacated and given to France 3rd place. So in case that they are banned whoever is 5th in Italy will play in CL, and the EL/ECL places filled accordingly by league position.
If they are outside top four, after they are banned, the EL title holder place is then vacated, and likely also given to France 3rd place.
Regardless, the total number of teams from Italy playing in Europe should remain at 7 (possibly 8 depending on whether Fiorentina win Coppa and/or ECL).
I also doubt that they will still play Super Cup if they are banned. I think Marseille also did not play the year they were banned? Maybe the EL runners-up will fill the place.
Should be the champions of the next ranked association (7th or 8th depending on CL title holders).barracuda wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 11:08Who would get the place in Pot 1 in CL?amenina wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 02:07It depends if they finish in the top four of Serie A or not.matt wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 01:29
They should be able to play the Supercup even if banned from the next season, right? I would think so. That would be very weird. Given the bad relationship between Juve and UEFA since the Superleague attempted breakaway, they may even decide to boycott the game. Who knows, not likely but not impossible
What would happen to the access list if Juve win the EL and later are banned?
If they are in top four, then the EL title holder place is already vacated and given to France 3rd place. So in case that they are banned whoever is 5th in Italy will play in CL, and the EL/ECL places filled accordingly by league position.
If they are outside top four, after they are banned, the EL title holder place is then vacated, and likely also given to France 3rd place.
Regardless, the total number of teams from Italy playing in Europe should remain at 7 (possibly 8 depending on whether Fiorentina win Coppa and/or ECL).
I also doubt that they will still play Super Cup if they are banned. I think Marseille also did not play the year they were banned? Maybe the EL runners-up will fill the place.
8th is Austria so there is still a dream for Sturm Graz in Pot 1!!!amenina wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 11:34Should be the champions of the next ranked association (7th or 8th depending on CL title holders).barracuda wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 11:08Who would get the place in Pot 1 in CL?amenina wrote: ↑Tue May 09, 2023 02:07
It depends if they finish in the top four of Serie A or not.
If they are in top four, then the EL title holder place is already vacated and given to France 3rd place. So in case that they are banned whoever is 5th in Italy will play in CL, and the EL/ECL places filled accordingly by league position.
If they are outside top four, after they are banned, the EL title holder place is then vacated, and likely also given to France 3rd place.
Regardless, the total number of teams from Italy playing in Europe should remain at 7 (possibly 8 depending on whether Fiorentina win Coppa and/or ECL).
I also doubt that they will still play Super Cup if they are banned. I think Marseille also did not play the year they were banned? Maybe the EL runners-up will fill the place.
the "convenience pots" finally disappear! thank god the (football) world is becoming a bit fairer. It reminds me like you are born into a wealthy family and benefit all your life.