Greek Football Season 2023/24

[Firnen]

Volos is losing 3-0 the match against Kifisia (had ended 0-0) due to the owner's racist attack from the bench against a Kifisia player. It was about time Beos got a serious punishment, let's see if it stands after his appeal.

The appeal was rejected, historic moment since Volos is the 1st team in Europe I believe to lose a match because of racist behaviour of the owner (who was sitting at the bench).

Play-out standings:
Asteras Tripolis....9-4-13....31
Atromitos..........6-10-10....28
Panserraikos.......6-9-11....27
OFI................5-10-11.....25
Kifisia..............4-9-13.....21
Panaitolikos........4-8-14....20
------------------------------------------
Volos................4-7-15....19
PAS Giannina.......3-9-14....18

[Firnen]

MD1

Asteras Tripolis - Volos 0-2
Kifisia - OFI 0-0
Panaitolikos - Panserraikos 3-0
Atromitos - PAS Giannina 3-2

Play-out standings:

Asteras Tripolis....9-4-14....31
Atromitos.........7-10-10....31
Panserraikos.......6-9-12....27
OFI................5-11-11.....26
Panaitolikos........5-8-14....23
Kifisia.............4-10-13.....22
------------------------------------------
Volos................5-7-15....22
PAS Giannina.......3-9-15....18

PAS already in a difficult spot, Volos got the expected wim against unmotivated Asteras, while OFI and Panserraikos don't feel fully comfortable.

[Firnen]

Play-Offs MD2

Panathinaikos - PAOK 2-3
AEK - Olympiacos 1-0
Aris - Lamia 3-1


AEK.................19-8-1......65
PAOK................20-3-5......63
Panathinaikos.....18-5-5......59
Olympiacos........18-3-7......57
Aris.................14-6-8......48
Lamia...............9-7-12.....34

AEK and PAOK have a significant points advantage over Panathinaikos and Olympiacos in the title fight after today's derbies.
PAOK dominated Panathinaikos in Athens, scored 3 goals and missed chances for more and the final scoreline flatter Panathinaikos who scored the 2nd goal in added time.
AEK got a lucky win after Olympiacos missed a lot of chances and AEK took advantage of a counter attack in the 91st minute. Olympiacos shows once again they have huge trouble winning derbies this year no matter how they play, the results just aren't coming.

Play-outs MD2:

Panserraikos - Asteras Tripolis 2-0
Volos - Kifisia 4-1
OFI - Atromitos 0-0
PAS Giannina - Panaitolikos 1-1

Atromitos.........7-11-10....32
Asteras Tripolis....9-4-15....31
Panserraikos.......7-9-12....30
OFI................5-12-11.....27
Volos................6-7-15....25
Panaitolikos........5-9-14....24
------------------------------------------
Kifisia.............4-10-14.....22
PAS Giannina......3-10-15....19

PAS has one foot in the 2nd division after failing to defend a lead again. Volos wins a 2nd match in a row and jumps out of the zone, while Panserraikos breathes comfortably after the win against Santa Claus of the play-outs, Asteras (more gifts to follow). OFI still not 100% safe.

[emortal]

Based on the schedule, I give a slight edge to AEK due to not having to play any other games.

I.e. PAOK has to play Dinamo in Zagreb this Thursday, then Aris on Sunday, then Dinamo at home next Thursday.
Similar for Olympiakos.

AEK - 35%
PAOK - 30%
Olympiakos - 25%
Panathinaikos - 10%

Betting odds seem to reflect, more or less, the above.

Huge win for PAOK yesterday in Athens (2-3 @ Panathinaikos), despite having to play with an emergency CB duo the entire second half.

Meanwhile, Olympiakos insisting on this dud of a CB (Retsos), and risking too much for a win, cost them an easy point at AEK yesterday.

Scoreboard:
https://www.slgr.gr/en/scoreboard/

Olympiakos is out of contention now, which mean they'll prioritize the ECL-QF games with Fenerbahce.
However, this doesn't mean they're indifferent.

They want to avoid 4th place, or they'll be relying on Panathinaikos winning the cup in order to get an ECL spot (final is Panathinaikos vs Aris).
Of course, that would be hilarious to watch and I'm rooting for exactly that to happen.

Panathinaikos is still in it, but they need a win on Wednesday vs. AEK at home.

IMHO the title odds are now:
AEK - 50%
PAOK - 40%
Panathinaikos - 10%

MD3 on Wednesday:
Olympiakos - Aris
PAOK - Lamia
Panathinaikos - AEK

[seso]

We had some exciting matches in the Greek second division:

The two top clubs in the North Group played against each other; Larissa scored two goals in the first 12 minutes, but Levadiakos (from beautiful Levadia) equalised with two goals in the last minutes of the match. Levadiakos remains top, seven points ahead of Larissa.
In the South Group, Athens Kallithea and Chania are within 3 points of each other at the top and they face each other tomorrow!

In the relegation battle of the North Group, Aiolikos beat Kampaniakos Chalastra, but they remain bottom.
In the South Group, big win for Panathinaikos II against Giouchtas and the future of Pana II, as far as avoiding relegation is concerned, looks brighter…

EDIT: Big win for Chania FC in the derby and they are now equal on points with Athens Kallithea.
Chania FC was established in 2017 by the merger of PGS Kissamikos and AO Chania. I think that neither Chania FC nor its parent clubs have ever competed in the first division.

[Firnen]

Play-Offs MD3


Olympiacos - Aris 3-0
PAOK - Lamia 3-1
Panathinaikos - AEK 2-1

PAOK................21-3-5......66
AEK.................19-8-2......65
Panathinaikos.....19-5-5......62
Olympiacos........19-3-7......60
Aris.................14-6-9......48
Lamia...............9-7-13.....34

Panathinaikos beats AEK in the derby of the MD and we have another change of lead, with PAOK reclaiming the top spot.
In the derby, AEK started strongly and took an early lead with CB Vida, missed a great chance to double it, and then Panathinaikos reacted and with 3 very quick goals (the 1st ruled out for offside) turned the match around. In the 2nd half Terim switched to a defensive formation and held on against everything AEK threw against Dragowski's goal.
PAOK, who beat Lamia after surviving a poor 1st half unscathed and doing the job in the 2nd, is going to AEK's stadium on Sunday from the top.
Panathinaikos is back in the title fight and faces Aris and Lamia twice in the next 3 matches, having a big chance for 3 wins.
Olympiacos remains alive but beating Aris is the easy task for them - they aren't going anywhere if they don't start winning derbies.

[emortal]

3rd MD results&stats:
https://www.slgr.gr/en/schedule/22/141/232430/

Ranking:
https://www.slgr.gr/en/scoreboard/

MD 4 (Apr. 4) games (times are in GMT+3):
https://www.slgr.gr/en/schedule/22/141/232431/

We're witnessing the most exciting championship race of all times.

AEK finally lost a game.
And Panathinaikos broke AEK's 17 game unbeaten streak in derbies (vs. the Big4+Aris)!

PAOK decided on an extensive rotation and nearly paid for it dearly.
The second unit proved incapable of doing the basics and score could've been much worse at halftime.

I need to revise my title odds again:
AEK / PAOK 35%
Panathinaikos 20%
Olympiakos 10%

Meanwhile the game Olympiakos-PAOK (for MD5) has been postponed for May 1st.
And obviously it will be postponed again if one of the two makes it to ECL SF.

[emortal]

With PAOK being back at 1st place, at least until Sunday, I had a look at the current situation regarding CL-W rebalancing.

With Shakhtar Donetsk having 99% clinched the Ukrainian league, the scenarios have narrowed down significantly.

So, Shakhtar moving to CL-LP and vacating a spot in CL-PO.
That's case 3b in @eye's post here:
https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewto ... &start=195

As shown in the spreadsheet (amazing work!) that's PAOK atm

Other realistic scenarios below.

1. Slavia Prague wins Czech league

With 4 games remaining in the regular season, Slavia is second 1 single point behind Sparta.
With the play-offs pending, the title is still up for grabs.

2. Copenhagen wins Danish league

Play-offs are under way in Denmark, and Copenhagen started off on the wrong foot.
Still, with 9 games remaining they are 3rd just 5 points off the top.

3. Dinamo Zagreb wins Croatian league

Dinamo's second at the moment, just 5 points from Rijeka, with a game in hand.
9 games remaining, including a visit to Rijeka.

4. Red Star wins Serbian league

Not only is Red Star unbeaten since December, they 've won 18/19 games since then.
Being top, 4 points off second-placed Partizan, I'm calling this over.

Teams 1-3 enter CL-Q2, but Red Star is entering CL-PO.

Ok, so in order for PAOK to grab the CL-PO spot via rebalancing, they need to:
a. Win the league
b. Qualify over Brugges to ECL-SF in order to surpass Red Star in the club ranking
c. Pray for 1-3 not to happen

[eye]

a. Win the league
b. Qualify over Brugges to ECL-SF in order to surpass Red Star in the club ranking
c. Pray for 1-3 not to happen

You forgot the most important part though. Champions league winner should qualify domestically to next champions league. While 6 of the 8 remaining clubs in the Champions league have either secured CL spot from their league or it is almost certain they will secure one soon for Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund there are currently many still chances not to get one.
Also the same requirements are needed in case Olympiakos is the league winner. Although for greek coefficient it will be much better if Panathinaikos or AEK is the league winner.

[emortal]

You forgot the most important part though. Champions league winner should qualify domestically to next champions league. While 6 of the 8 remaining clubs in the Champions league have either secured CL spot from their league or it is almost certain they will secure one soon for Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund there are currently many still chances not to get one.

That goes without saying!

But I give the team coming out of Dortmund-Atletico less than 2% chance to win it.

In fact, I expect both of them (win or lose) to focus on the league afterwards to secure a CL spot that way!

Also the same requirements are needed in case Olympiakos is the league winner. Although for greek coefficient it will be much better if Panathinaikos or AEK is the league winner.

Re: Olympiakos, indeed it applies with the caveat that they're currently 4th in the league (see posts above).

For the coefficient I disagree.
PAOK in the CL-PO as seeded is much more likely to get into CL groups with the new format, than AEK or PAO starting in CL-Q2.

The best IMO for the coefficient :
PAOK in CL-PO (seeded)
Panathinaikos winning the cup and starting at EL-Q1 (seeded)
Olympiakos in ECL-Q2 (seeded all the way)
AEK in ECL-Q2 (seeded till PO at least)

This way I think Greece gets at least 2 teams in groups, and has good chances for 3.

PAOK is much better as the outsider than as a favourite, so can cause many upsets in the new format against higher ranked teams.
Also needs the certainty of group stage to maintain the current team and strengthen it.

Panathinaikos plays better with their back against the wall.

Olympiakos is best when facing minnows.

AEK has the deepest team, and it won't be affected much even if they don't make the groups.
They'd be favoured to reach ECL-PO, and if there are a few upsets they could be seeded even there.

[eye]

The best IMO for the coefficient :
PAOK in CL-PO (seeded)
Panathinaikos winning the cup and starting at EL-Q1 (seeded)
Olympiakos in ECL-Q2 (seeded all the way)
AEK in ECL-Q2 (seeded till PO at least)

This way I think Greece gets at least 2 teams in groups, and has good chances for 3.

This scenario is by far the worse. PAOK scored 20 points and Olympiakos 14.5 (would have been more if they were eliminated at EL-PO and continued at ECL). If one of them is at CL and especially if they also missed 2 or 3 qualifiers it is impossible to get the same points at CL without reaching at least R16 which is extremely unlikely to happen. Panathinaikos will be unseeded at every round of EL and ECL and AEK unseeded at ECL-PO where clubs from top5 countries are also taking part. So it is very likely 1 or both to fail and hopes will be the seeded ECL club not to fail at qualifiers.
The best scenario would be Panathinaikos to win league so will have 3 chances to qualify to a LP of a competition, AEK to be at EL where will be seeded at Q1 and probably at Q2 so will need to win one of the next 2 ties as unseeded to take part at a LP and Olympiakos and PAOK as seeded at ECL. At this scenario there are good chances to have even 4 clubs at LP.
At the expected coefficients tab of spreadsheet you can already see the difference. After weekend matches AEK was leading and expected coefficients for Greece was over 11.000. Now that PAOK is leading the expected coefficient dropped below 6.000
The next season will be critical for Greek coefficient. A failure (which is possible) at ECL qualifiers will cost a lot and since there is a very bad season already at 5 years ranking it will keep Greece away from top15 for at least 2 more years.

[emortal]

This scenario is by far the worse. PAOK scored 20 points and Olympiakos 14.5 (would have been more if they were eliminated at EL-PO and continued at ECL). ...

This is all based off one season (2023/4), where all the stars aligned.
As they say, "hindsight is 20/20".

PAOK started the season in July and after the first game vs. Beitar (0:0) I wasn't even sure they'd make it past ECL-Q2.
We had to suffer vs. Hajduk next, due to a very unlucky draw despite being seeded in ECL-Q3.

Olympiakos in EL-Q3 had a fluke qualification with Genk.

You're ignoring the fact that in the CL-Q AEK beat Dinamo and Panathinaikos beat Marseille, but they failed vs. Antwerp and Braga respectively.

AEK then went straight into the group of death in EL.
Whereas Panathinaikos proved unready for EL groups.

There is much more to this than stats, past coefficients and being seeded.

Finally, with the new format being in ECL groups will no longer be the gift it was in its first 3 seasons.

[TommyChat]

But next season if a club with a high coefficient drops like from ELq2 to CoLq3 they can cause an increase to points needed to be seeded in CoLpo, so upsets can work the other way around which couldn't happen under the current format.

Also the top seeded club in CoLpo can get an even higher ranked club who lost ELQ3

[emortal]

But next season if a club with a high coefficient drops like from ELq2 to CoLq3 they can cause an increase to points needed to be seeded in CoLpo, so upsets can work the other way around which couldn't happen under the current format.

Also the top seeded club in CoLpo can get an even higher ranked club who lost ELQ3

You' re right.

But as it stands there are only 3 teams in EL-Q3 with lower coefficient than AEK.

What is more likely?
Lugano/Kryvbas/Servette taking out one of the seeded, or e.g. Spartak Trnava taking out Zalgiris?

[og2002gr]

The best scenario would be Panathinaikos to win league so will have 3 chances to qualify to a LP of a competition, AEK to be at EL where will be seeded at Q1 and probably at Q2 so will need to win one of the next 2 ties as unseeded to take part at a LP and Olympiakos and PAOK as seeded at ECL. At this scenario there are good chances to have even 4 clubs at LP.

That's true.
The best way for a Country to make many points is having its lowest seeded teams in best positions and their highest seeded teams in lowest positions.
That was the case this season