2026 World Cup - African qualifiers

[amenina]

After Leshoto, Zimbabwe also gets a point from Nigeria.

We have a candidate group for the favourite to fail here - big chance for South Africa.

Already they've dropped as the odds-on favorite for the group. And not great odds to make the playoff at this rate either

Does your model take into account that the two points dropped against Lesotho may not "hurt" Nigeria in terms of qualifying for the African play-offs, since results against the 6th-placed team will not be used for ranking the runners-up after Eritrea withdrew?

[dopeisland]

After Leshoto, Zimbabwe also gets a point from Nigeria.

We have a candidate group for the favourite to fail here - big chance for South Africa.

Already they've dropped as the odds-on favorite for the group. And not great odds to make the playoff at this rate either

Does your model take into account that the two points dropped against Lesotho may not "hurt" Nigeria in terms of qualifying for the African play-offs, since results against the 6th-placed team will not be used for ranking the runners-up after Eritrea withdrew?

Yeah for sure, it takes out results against the last place team in each simulation. So for any sim in which Lesotho finish last (only 38% of them as of now) those results don’t hurt Nigeria

[dopeisland]

After Leshoto, Zimbabwe also gets a point from Nigeria.

We have a candidate group for the favourite to fail here - big chance for South Africa.

Already they've dropped as the odds-on favorite for the group. And not great odds to make the playoff at this rate either

Where do you get these stats? Do you have a link for the other groups?

It’s from my own model, find all the qualifiers in the pinned post on my blog

dopemodels.info

[amenina]

Group stage matchday 2 fixtures, 20 November 2023

[dopeisland]

New likely leader in Group I, as Mali's draw against Central Afr. Rep. drops them behind Ghana in likely winner of the group

[amenina]

Group stage matchday 2 results, 20 November 2023

Report: https://www.cafonline.com/news/cote-div ... ualifiers/

P.S. Just noticed that the fixture Mali vs Central African Republic was reversed. It should have been CAR at home, but they changed to Mali at home for this round. And Mali subsequently are the second top seed to drop points (they are in the same group as Ghana who are the second seed).

[amenina]

Group stage matchday 2 fixtures, 21 November 2023

[dopeisland]

Group stage matchday 2 results, 20 November 2023

Report: https://www.cafonline.com/news/cote-div ... ualifiers/

P.S. Just noticed that the fixture Mali vs Central African Republic was reversed. It should have been CAR at home, but they changed to Mali at home for this round. And Mali subsequently are the second top seed to drop points (they are in the same group as Ghana who are the second seed).

I noticed this as well when the score populated in my model differently than I’d thought, couple minutes I thought I was going nuts. That makes this draw even worse for Mali, to be honest- which is probably why my model has dropped them so much

[amenina]

Well, lifeline for Nigeria, as Rwanda beat the second seed South Africa 2-0 at home.

Now Rwanda lead Group C with 4 points, followed by South Africa with 3, Nigeria, Lesotho (who produced another good performance with a 0-0 home draw with Benin), and Zimbabwe with 2, and Benin at last place with 1.

[Firnen]

Rwanda beats South Africa and this Group is getting chaotic!

Botswana beat Guinea meanwhile.

Comoros is one of the dark horses of the last few years, and they re playing Ghana at home. Mali dropped points yesterday, let's see if there is an opening for Comoros...

[dopeisland]

Lmao this group is wild already

[Firnen]

Comoros beat Ghana and are dreaming of the World Cup!

Cameroon and Senegal dropped points away to Libya and Togo.

Mauritius got a point from Angola, while Somalia and Sao Tome are not punching bags.

The only real punching bad of CAF is Seychelles.

[matt]

If you are a football fan and you are looking for goals hold on and resist: club football is coming back in three days

[amenina]

Comoros beat Ghana and are dreaming of the World Cup!

Cameroon and Senegal dropped points away to Libya and Togo.

Mauritius got a point from Angola, while Somalia and Sao Tome are not punching bags.

The only real punching bad of CAF is Seychelles.

Cameroon and Senegal still being tied on top of their group since none of the other teams won 2 out of 2.

In qualifying for 2023 AFCON, all 46 teams which played in the group stage (Kenya and Zimbabwe were disqualified after being suspended by FIFA) got at least 1 point out of the 6 matches (4 for 3-team groups). There are very few bad teams in Africa, and most of the 2nd and 3rd tier teams are quite inconsistent in their performances, so even the supposed minnows can get a point here or there.

Only one group left, Group E, with Morocco finally starting their "defense of best World Cup African team" with a tricky away match against Tanzania, and closest challenger Zambia "away" to Niger (match played in Morocco).

[amenina]

If you are a football fan and you are looking for goals hold on and resist: club football is coming back in three days

Today's CAF matches are once again full of the typical African football scores, full of 0's. Only one match out of 13 did both teams scored (Libya 1-1 Cameroon), with 4 goalless draws.