2023/2024 EL Group D: Atalanta - Sporting CP - Sturm - Raków

[Juliusz]

He didn't start against Sporting CP, neither did Teixeira. It was Sarkaria playing alongside Boving up front.

That's right, but I still think he will receive his chances in EL despite his form regression.

Sarkaria might possibly miss next match against Raków, and Jatta doesn't seem to be fully fit yet. Bøving might be placed in midfield, so some changes are possible for Thursday.

Edit: Włodarczyk starts! Sarkaria, Jatta and Teixeira on the bench.

[matt]

So far so good for Atalanta, i'm looking forward to spring 2024.
Sturm Graz is likely to overwinter after a few failed attemps.

[bugylibicska]

Group winner:

Atalanta 1.30
Sporting Lisbon 4.00
Sturm Graz 5.50
Rakow 81.00

[Dragonite]

Expected wins for Atalanta and Sturm.

So far so good for Atalanta, i'm looking forward to spring 2024.
Sturm Graz is likely to overwinter after a few failed attemps.

A "few"?!

The last time they did it was over two decades ago, in 2000/2001 CL. They progressed from the first round group stage in a group with Rangers, Galatasaray and Monaco, and then couldn't progress from the second round group stage ("last 16"), in a group with Valencia, Manchester United and Panathinaikos.


It's funny that apart from me, everyone else here was unanimous in their "Raków 3rd and Sturm last" prediction.

And I suppose that these "pot 4 3rd place and pot 3 last place" kind of predictions heavily rely on the pot 4 team's capacity to win its home match against the pot 3 team.

So when that doesn't happen this belief fades.


It's not over yet. Maybe Sturm and/or Raków can also get points against Atalanta and Sporting. Perhaps Raków can defeat Sturm in Austria despite not doing it in Poland!

[bugylibicska]

To win the group:

Atalanta 1.22
Sporting Lisbon 5.00
Sturm Graz 9.00
Rakow 151.00

Atalanta almost there, but Sporting have some more work to do. Rakow are out, but Sturm can still dream.

[Dragonite]

Two draws here...

For Sporting, this match in Poland against Raków in EL round 3 has similarities with last season's round 3 match in CL in France against Marseille. In both Sporting scored first, and in both they had a player sent off early.

The main difference is that Marseille's players are better than Raków's players, so Marseille won the match while Raków could only get a draw.

Raków's players are so bad despite playing 82 minutes in numerical advantage they could only have 2 shots on goal.

Actually they didn't play 82 minutes in numerical advantage, they played 76.

Arsenic was injured in that foul that got Gyokeres sent off, Raków spent six minutes playing 10 vs 10 before finally replacing Arsenic by Jean Carlos, and it was precisely in this period that Sporting scored its goal!

[bugylibicska]

To win the group:

Atalanta 1.22
Sporting Lisbon 5.00
Sturm Graz 9.00
Rakow 151.00

Atalanta almost there, but Sporting have some more work to do. Rakow are out, but Sturm can still dream.

Group winner:

Atalanta 1.10
Sporting Lisbon 6.50

Atalanta will make it, but Sporting must avoid losing at home to Sturm Graz.

[Dragonite]

Expected wins for Atalanta and Sporting.

Congratulations Atalanta!


They already progressed from this group with 2 games to spare. And if they don't lose their next match against Sporting they'll secure the first place too.

Sporting's win against Raków was shameful. A 2-1 win with 2 penalty kicks and playing in numerical advantage since the 12th minute. To make things worse, none of these situations was actually decided by the referees, it was videoclownery interventions.

Sporting could have won this match fair and square, 11 vs 11 and without penalty kicks. They don't need videoclowns to make their task a lot easier by gifting them two penalty kicks and sending off Racovitan.

Sturm is in a curious situation. Last season despite getting 8 points they still finished last placed in their EL group. And this season if they don't lose their next match against Raków they will avoid the last place with 5 points only.

[Polak]

Indeed Sporting were very disappointing in this game. In Poland it was Rakow who were a disappointment, having a man advantage for most of the match and still failing to win. This time it was Sporting who had the man advantage for most of the game, and they did win, but not very convincingly.

The 1st goal was from a fair penalty, but I thought the rules were that if you commit a last man foul but it's in the box and the opponent gets a penalty, the punishment is lessened to a yellow? Anyway Racovitan wasn't the last man but his opponent would have been clean through on goal if he wasn't fouled. The 2nd penalty was absurd like most handball penalties seem to be these days.

I expected Sporting to thump Rakow, particularly with a man advantage, but they only got a narrow win. A win is a win I suppose.

Either way Rakow are set to finish bottom of the group. The only thing they can hope for now is to try and pick up a point or two in their remaining games for their financial gain and the Polish coefficient.

[Juliusz]

The 1st goal was from a fair penalty, but I thought the rules were that if you commit a last man foul but it's in the box and the opponent gets a penalty, the punishment is lessened to a yellow? Anyway Racovitan wasn't the last man but his opponent would have been clean through on goal if he wasn't fouled.

Only if the foul is a result of fight for the ball. Racovitan's foul had nothing to do with it.

Either way Rakow are set to finish bottom of the group. The only thing they can hope for now is to try and pick up a point or two in their remaining games for their financial gain and the Polish coefficient.

I see you don't believe in Raków winning in Graz. I'd agree they're not favourites, but on penultimate matchday they still have something to play for, so that everything could be decided on MD6.

[Polak]

I see you don't believe in Raków winning in Graz. I'd agree they're not favourites, but on penultimate matchday they still have something to play for, so that everything could be decided on MD6.

Correct

[Juliusz]

So, Raków did succeed in Austria. A pleasant surprise leading to exciting matches in MD6.

Raków and Sturm are equal on H2H. Sturm has better goal difference, so Raków has to catch it up if both teams win or both lose.

If both win, the last possible tie breaker is away wins (Sturm would have 2, Raków 1). If both lose, it can even reach disciplinary points (Raków 11, Sturm 14) or the club coefficient.

[bugylibicska]

Atalanta won the group. I think Rakow have a better chance to nick a point from them in Poland than Sturm have in Portugal from Sporting.

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Sporting!


They already secured the second place, not because they won in Italy, but because Sturm lost at home against Raków.

Atalanta will make it, but Sporting must avoid losing at home to Sturm Graz.

Sporting can lose the home match against Sturm now, but it's preferable if they win it, 8 points from a maximum of 15 is already disappointing enough, they shouldn't make it worse.

Either way Rakow are set to finish bottom of the group. The only thing they can hope for now is to try and pick up a point or two in their remaining games for their financial gain and the Polish coefficient.

Maybe Raków won't be last placed after all.

Sturm was always last placed in each of its previous 4 EL participations, and Polish EL debutants were never last placed.

[Polak]

Yes both Polish teams still have a chance to remain in Europe after Christmas on the last matchday. Funnily enough Rakow could go through even with a loss if Sturm Graz have a greater loss.

Atalanta are guaranteed 1st and Sporting are guaranteed 2nd, which means Rakow and Sturm Graz are more or less in the same situation theoretically playing teams who don't have as much motivation anymore, with the exception that Rakow are home and Sturm Graz away. Perhaps Sporting would have more motivation playing in front of their fans at home? I don't know, we'll see.