2023/2024 Conference League Group D: Club Brugge - Bodo/Glimt - Besiktas - Lugano

[naaba]

Brugge was underdog in Champions League. They were expected to not win any match, yet they won 3 against all odds.
Besiktas was supposed to be "equal" to Brugge, but they were walked over for 90 minutes. Everyone likes an underdog winning, but fewer go for the "self-proclamed favorite" getting destroyed yet taking a point.

What do you mean by "self-proclamed favorite" ?

Club Brugge's elo rating is 1649
Besiktas' elo rating is 1640

People would naturally expect a balanced game. I don't think anyone said that Besiktas would win in Belgium.

However, elo rating is just an indicator and do not take into account current shapes.

Besiktas are a mess at the moment - it was a golden opportunity and Club Brugge should have scored 3 (like Trabzon did) or 4 (like Adana Demirspor did in the league) or even more. They would have still won if they didn't make that stupid mistake at the end of the game. You win by scoring more goals than your opponent and they can only blame themselves for missing so many chances.

I wouldn't be worried about it anyways, Club Brugge should easily win this group with 14/16 pts. Hard to predict the team that would finish 2nd.

I was aiming at Dragonite, hence the brackets. I initially wanted to make an analogy with Belgium - Croatia in Qatar where Belgium was slightly favorite of this balanced game, had the chances to win minimum 3-0 but somehow failed to do it.

I strongly believe Brugge and Besiktas will be top 2 anyway. Besiktas got the players to be above Lugano and Bodo. Bodo failed to win in Switzerland which is a worse result than Brugge drawing at home.

Now Besiktas will welcome Lugano. No win here would be a disaster; while Brugge travels to Norway. When you can win in Osasuna, you can also win there. A draw would be "acceptable" though but Besiktas is favorite to lead the group alone next week.

[Dragonite]

Strange choice of words. "Self-proclaimed" would have to be Senol Gunes or so saying it, "we are the best team in this group and will surely win it".

I don't know if he said it and I don't care. Anyway, starting with a draw in Belgium against the alleged strongest opponent is not what I would call "getting destroyed". Spartak Trnava was destroyed in Bulgaria and Astana was destroyed in Croatia, losing heavily, that's being destroyed.

And finally, regarding "everyone likes an underdog winning", apparently Club Brugge doesn't. They were extremely ungrateful with the hero that after over three decades and in attempt #10 finally took them beyond the CL group stages, immediately replacing him by someone else.

If they really liked what he did and were grateful he would still be in charge now.

[babaluj1]

The strongest and most balanced group, there are no easy matches here. Favorites are Brugge and Besiktas, but Bodo and Lugano can surprise. Bad draw for everyone in this group.

[ecrivain 93]

In this match week we will maybe see the course of the group, specifically if Bodo is able to beat Brugge, the group may be in confuse. I think Brugge is in low cotton after Besiktas match.
I have no idea that Besiktas can win against Lugano at its home.

This group is very tough for everyone.

[zender]

The strongest and most balanced group, there are no easy matches here. Favorites are Brugge and Besiktas, but Bodo and Lugano can surprise. Bad draw for everyone in this group.

To be honest, I like this group.
I actually get to watch interesting games each week
But what you said is absolutely correct.

Hopefully with Jutgla in the forward position Bruges' massive offensive cannon will work again because the last what is it ... 5 1-1 draws is really below their level.

[matt]

Lugano's win in Turkey completely open this group, at least for the second place. Everyone can still qualify.

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Lugano!


It's unbelievable how bad Besiktas is, almost as if they're cursed!

Six seasons ago they won their CL group, above Porto, Leipzig and Monaco. And ever since then, nothing good happened to them anymore. Eliminated in an EL group with Genk, Malmö and Sarpsborg, then eliminated in an EL group with Braga, Wolverhamption and Slovan Bratislava, then eliminated in CL qualifers by PAOK and in EL qualifiers by Rio Ave, then 0-0-6 in a CL group with Ajax, Sporting CP and Dortmund, then inexistence, now this...

I'm thinking about a conversation here from around one year ago, where people said that Besiktas' low ranking was proof that UEFA's ranking was flawed, and I replied saying that it wasn't, it was proof that Besiktas was flawed.

It also involved Sivasspor, that Sivasspor had a higher ranking than Besiktas because of "easy Conference League points", and that "if Besiktas was in Conference League they would be smashing everybody".


Well, perhaps the sample is still too small, 2 games only, but so far Besiktas isn't smashing anyone, quite the opposite!


At least the incompetent Senol Gunes left after this humiliation against Lugano. Now they have a couple of weeks to find a new manager and prepare for the next match in Norway.

[bjkman1903]

It's unbelievable how bad Besiktas is, almost as if they're cursed!

I'm thinking about a conversation here from around one year ago, where people said that Besiktas' low ranking was proof that UEFA's ranking was flawed, and I replied saying that it wasn't, it was proof that Besiktas was flawed.

It also involved Sivasspor, that Sivasspor had a higher ranking than Besiktas because of "easy Conference League points", and that "if Besiktas was in Conference League they would be smashing everybody".


Well, perhaps the sample is still too small, 2 games only, but so far Besiktas isn't smashing anyone, quite the opposite!


At least the incompetent Senol Gunes left after this humiliation against Lugano. Now they have a couple of weeks to find a new manager and prepare for the next match in Norway.

On a positive note, at least Besiktas survived 3 qualifying rounds this season and defeated a seeded team in PO round.

After that, things went downhill both in the league and in ECL.
Coach Senol Gunes lost control and made many mistakes (both by choosing the wrong starting 11 in many matches and the wrong tactics) and he couldn't improve the situation. Players lost confidence, the management and the fans were in conflict and this situation created a toxic environment (fans want the president to resign)

Maybe if Club Brugge destroyed Besiktas (as they should have), Senol Gunes would have left earlier.

Besiktas can still recover and fight for 2nd place - I am more confident now that Senol Gunes is finally gone.
Next game in Norway will be critical.

Regarding that discussion about Sivasspor, I don't think I was involved.
But in the end, Sivasspor had just one wonder season after many tries. Surely Besiktas can at least do the same if we play again in ECL in the near future.

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Bodo/Glimt!


(Team photo from their round 1 match against Lugano, I couldn't find one from their round 3 match against Besiktas)

Besiktas fired Senol Gunes, put someone else in charge (Hari Vukas according to uefa.com, but I guess he's just the one with the UEFA Pro Licence and then who's actually in charge is Burak Yilmaz), but the results keep getting worse!

At least in the previous match they had the "red card excuse", until the red card they were winning 2-0.

This time without red cards they lost 1-3 and even their goal was scored by Bodo/Glimt, that's how bad they are!

[Witkop1983]

apart from the suprise draws on the 1st matchday not much surprises in this group so far...

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Club Brugge!


They advanced from this group with 2 games to spare.

UEFA.com isn't considering them as "qualified" yet, but they are.

If there's a 10-10-10 draw with Club Brugge, Bodo/Glimt and Lugano, then removing the points won against Besiktas, we would have Club Brugge as group winner.

Besiktas is eliminated.

If there's a 7-7-7 draw with Besiktas, Bodo/Glimt and Lugano, then removing the points won against Club Brugge, we would have Lugano advancing.

[Witkop1983]

Congratulations Club Brugge!


They advanced from this group with 2 games to spare.

UEFA.com isn't considering them as "qualified" yet, but they are.

If there's a 10-10-10 draw with Club Brugge, Bodo/Glimt and Lugano, then removing the points won against Besiktas, we would have Club Brugge as group winner.

Besiktas is eliminated.

If there's a 7-7-7 draw with Besiktas, Bodo/Glimt and Lugano, then removing the points won against Club Brugge, we would have Lugano advancing.

If it is 7-7-7 it will be decided on goal difference between Bodo and Lugano. If goals scored and goals against is the same between the two teams Lugano will advance.

With 10-10-10 2nd place will also be decided that same way between Bodo and Lugano

(or is wikipedia wrong?)

[Overgame]

Congratulations Club Brugge!


They advanced from this group with 2 games to spare.

UEFA.com isn't considering them as "qualified" yet, but they are.

If there's a 10-10-10 draw with Club Brugge, Bodo/Glimt and Lugano, then removing the points won against Besiktas, we would have Club Brugge as group winner.

Besiktas is eliminated.

If there's a 7-7-7 draw with Besiktas, Bodo/Glimt and Lugano, then removing the points won against Club Brugge, we would have Lugano advancing.

If it is 7-7-7 it will be decided on goal difference between Bodo and Lugano. If goals scored and goals against is the same between the two teams Lugano will advance.

With 10-10-10 2nd place will also be decided that same way between Bodo and Lugano

(or is wikipedia wrong?)

Tiebreakers for UEFA: create a mini-table with the teams tied.

7-7-7 so Lugano wins against Bodo, Bodo loses against Brugge, and Besiktas win against Lugano and Brugge
Team Points Gfor Gagainst Gdifference
Lugano 7 3 2 +1
Bodo 7 5 2 +3
Besiktas 3 8 -4

If Lugano wins by a single goal, their GD will not be better than +1 while Bodo will be at +2. So Bodo would be 2nd.
If Lugano wins by 2 goals (2-0; 3-1; 4-2; etc don't make a difference), a one goal loss against Besiktas is enough for Lugano (GD +2 vs +1) or a 2 goal loss while scoring at least once (GS at least 6 vs 5). If Lugano loses 2-0 against Besiktas, then it comes down the games against Lugano and Bodo, and Lugano would be 2nd. In general if Kugano wins by X goals they can lose by 2.X - 2 goals.

10-10-10 so Lugano wins against Bodo and Besiktas, Bodo wins against Brugge and Besiktas wins against Brugge
Brugge 9 6 1 +5
Bodo 4 0 1 -1
Lugano 4 1 5 -4

If Lugano wins by a single goal, their GD will be -3 while Bodo will be at least -1. So Bodo would be 2nd.
If Lugano wins by 2 goals (the exact score doesn't matter), their GD will be -2, so if Bodo only wins by a single goal vs Brugge, their GD would also be -2. Lugano would have at least 3 goals scored, so Bodo would need tyo score at least 3 times vs Brugge to be 2nd. In general, if Lugano wins by X goals, Bodo needs 2.X - 2 goals win vs Brugge, or 2.X - 3 goals win with at least 2 goals from Brugge.

[naaba]

Besiktas suffered their heaviest defeat in European history, tied with a 0-5 against Dynamo Kyiv in CL-QF in 1987.
For Brugge it was their biggest away victory since IA Akranes (1-6) in 2001 (EL-Q1).
With 3 consecutive victories (excluding qualifiers) Bodø/Glimt equaled their best tally of 2022 (2 wins against Celtic and first leg against AZ). Can they make it 4 wins ? (I hope not).
As expected, Lugano was too tender to have hopes of qualification.
However Besiktas has crashed in style. It's the 5th consecutive season they fail to survive a group stage (losing in qualifiers once). They haven't survived winter since 2018.

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Bodo/Glimt!


They advanced from this group alongside Club Brugge.

5-2 against Lugano was the second biggest win in their Conference League history, only below 6-1 vs Roma in 2021

They can still get the first place, but to do it they'll have to win in Belgium by at least two goals difference.

Besiktas can also get the third place, but to do it they'll have to win in Switzerland by at least two goals difference.

Is it important to finish above Lugano? I think it is. It's one thing to finish 3rd in this group being the pot 3 team, according to seeding they're the 3rd best team here, so they're not supposed to finish above the two highest ranked teams, but they're supposed to finish above the lowest ranked team. It is a totally different thing to finish bottom of this group. That stain won't disappear easily, in 10 years no matter what they do they'll still be "the team that finished bottom of a Conference League group".