2023/2024 Conference League Group E: AZ Alkmaar - Aston Villa - Legia - Zrinjski

[BorisMo]

Odds for fixture 2 matches in group E according to William Hill:

Aston Villa - Zrinjski 1.08 7.50 21.00
AZ Alkmaar - Legia 1.61 3.90 4.40

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Zrinjski!


Their 4-3 win against AZ Alkmaar, recovering from a 0-3 at half-time, is unbelievable!!

And they did it without benefitting from red cards or penalty kicks, which would make the recovery more likely.

I still think that they will finish last placed here, but perhaps they can collect more points in their following matches too. No matter what happens from now onwards, they already won.

[babaluj1]

Congratulations Zrinjski!


Their 4-3 win against AZ Alkmaar, recovering from a 0-3 at half-time, is unbelievable!!

And they did it without benefitting from red cards or penalty kicks, which would make the recovery more likely.

I still think that they will finish last placed here, but perhaps they can collect more points in their following matches too. No matter what happens from now onwards, they already won.

Very difficult group for Zrinjski, along with group D the worst. In such a group, even one point won is a success. Congratulations to Zrinjski, they played beyond their capabilities and made a historically sensational turnaround. I hope they will win a few more points, every point is very important for the club and national coefficient of BIH football. With better coefficients it will be much easier in the future!

[babaluj1]

According to the elo rating, Aston Villa is convincingly the first favorite to win the ECL, AZ Alkmaar is also among the Top 8 favorites to win. Legia is by rating
somewhere in the middle of the standings of all the clubs participating in the GS ECL and would have fought in all the groups to pass, but they drew a very difficult group.
Zrinjski has the worst elo rating, a heavy outsider in this group, but they can certainly surprise someone else.
Current clubelo rating ECL:

1. Aston Villa in 1823
8.AZ Alkmaar 1644
16. Legion 1535
29. Zrinjski 1284

[Greyn]

According to the elo rating, Aston Villa is convincingly the first favorite to win the ECL, AZ Alkmaar is also among the Top 8 favorites to win. Legia is by rating
somewhere in the middle of the standings of all the clubs participating in the GS ECL and would have fought in all the groups to pass, but they drew a very difficult group.
Zrinjski has the worst elo rating, a heavy outsider in this group, but they can certainly surprise someone else.
Current clubelo rating ECL:

1. Aston Villa in 1823
8.AZ Alkmaar 1644
16. Legion 1535
29. Zrinjski 1284

Well, Legia is fighting in this group to pass with very reasonable chances play in Europe next spring in my opinion. I really don't understand why you already declared Aston Villa and AZ as teams which will advance to the KO round, particularly after MD 1 results.

On Thursday we have AZ - Legia match and it is a kind of a match that AZ must win, not Legia.

[Lorric]

Finally got to see the highlights. Luck was certainly on Zrinjski's side for the first two goals, the first was a set piece into the box that went all the way through, and the second was a cross that went flying into the top corner!

But they still had work to do, which they duly did to score two good goals for the win.

[Greyn]

I just checked the bookie odds provided by STS. Here they are:

Legia to win the group - 5.00
Legia to finish on 1-2 place - 1.90

H2H:

Aston Villa - 1.27, Legia - 3.75
AZ - 1.90, Legia - 1.90
Zrinjski - 3.50, Legia - 1.30

[babaluj1]

According to the elo rating, Aston Villa is convincingly the first favorite to win the ECL, AZ Alkmaar is also among the Top 8 favorites to win. Legia is by rating
somewhere in the middle of the standings of all the clubs participating in the GS ECL and would have fought in all the groups to pass, but they drew a very difficult group.
Zrinjski has the worst elo rating, a heavy outsider in this group, but they can certainly surprise someone else.
Current clubelo rating ECL:

1. Aston Villa in 1823
8.AZ Alkmaar 1644
16. Legion 1535
29. Zrinjski 1284

Well, Legia is fighting in this group to pass with very reasonable chances play in Europe next spring in my opinion. I really don't understand why you already declared Aston Villa and AZ as teams which will advance to the KO round, particularly after MD 1 results.

On Thursday we have AZ - Legia match and it is a kind of a match that AZ must win, not Legia.

You don't understand that being a favorite does not mean that it will surely pass. Aston Villa is a huge favorite to go through not only this group, but also to win the ECL. This does not mean that Aston Villa cannot be relegated in the group. Legia and Zrinjski created a sensation in the first round and defeated the big favorites, but that does not mean that they have now become big favorites. If Legia beats AZ Alkmaar away from home or at least draws, and Zrinjski wins or draws in England, then there will no longer be clear favorites in the group.
So far, Aston Villa and AZ Alkmaar are the favorites of the group, even though they lost the first match. Although I would like Legia and Zrinjski to go through, great!

[Greyn]

According to the elo rating, Aston Villa is convincingly the first favorite to win the ECL, AZ Alkmaar is also among the Top 8 favorites to win. Legia is by rating
somewhere in the middle of the standings of all the clubs participating in the GS ECL and would have fought in all the groups to pass, but they drew a very difficult group.
Zrinjski has the worst elo rating, a heavy outsider in this group, but they can certainly surprise someone else.
Current clubelo rating ECL:

1. Aston Villa in 1823
8.AZ Alkmaar 1644
16. Legion 1535
29. Zrinjski 1284

Well, Legia is fighting in this group to pass with very reasonable chances play in Europe next spring in my opinion. I really don't understand why you already declared Aston Villa and AZ as teams which will advance to the KO round, particularly after MD 1 results.

On Thursday we have AZ - Legia match and it is a kind of a match that AZ must win, not Legia.

You don't understand that being a favorite does not mean that it will surely pass. Aston Villa is a huge favorite to go through not only this group, but also to win the ECL. This does not mean that Aston Villa cannot be relegated in the group. Legia and Zrinjski created a sensation in the first round and defeated the big favorites, but that does not mean that they have now become big favorites. If Legia beats AZ Alkmaar away from home or at least draws, and Zrinjski wins or draws in England, then there will no longer be clear favorites in the group.
So far, Aston Villa and AZ Alkmaar are the favorites of the group, even though they lost the first match. Although I would like Legia and Zrinjski to go through, great!

The point is that in my opinion and according to the bookie odds, AZ are no longer favourites to finish on 1st or 2nd place.

[BorisMo]

...
The point is that in my opinion and according to the bookie odds, AZ are no longer favourites to finish on 1st or 2nd place.

Where did you find bookies odds for group qualification?

[Greyn]

Where did you find bookies odds for group qualification?

Polish bookie STS has odds for qualification for all CL, EL and ECL groups. Additionally, it has H2H odds for Legia and Raków.

I just checked the bookie odds provided by STS. Here they are:

Legia to win the group - 5.00
Legia to finish on 1-2 place - 1.90

H2H:

Aston Villa - 1.27, Legia - 3.75
AZ - 1.90, Legia - 1.90
Zrinjski - 3.50, Legia - 1.30

[matt]

I don't know why Aston Villa are struggling so much, maybe they are playing with a "relaxed" attitude. Zrinjski loss was cruel, but they deserve an applause once again.
Legia - AZ in December might decide the qualification and it's going to be a hell of a match.

[BorisMo]

I don't know why Aston Villa are struggling so much, maybe they are playing with a "relaxed" attitude. Zrinjski loss was cruel, but they deserve an applause once again.
Legia - AZ in December might decide the qualification and it's going to be a hell of a match.

Maybe it will decide qualification, maybe it won't. Many matches to play until then. Legia has to go trough 2 games with Zrinjski before that. If Zrinjski manages to get few points from those matches, we could be in contention too, especially if Villa wins all their games until last fixture, and sends reserves to Mostar in December. Much more interesting group than expected.

[Dragonite]

Expected wins for AZ Alkmaar and Aston Villa.

Zrinjski nearly got another point, but Aston Villa scored in the 94th minute and won the game.

[BorisMo]

Everything to play for after 2 fixtures in group E. All teams equal on points and goal difference. Next 2 fixtures will probably answer many question, as Zrinjski will play Legia twice, and AZ will play Aston Villa twice.

If Legia want to qualify, they will need to win at least 4 points in 2 games against Zrinjski, but they will probably hope to get 6. If they get less than that, they would be in a difficult position, because their next fixture will be at Villa Park.

Zrinjski is in similar position, but being underdogs, we will be very happy with 2 or 3 points in 2 matches against Legia. We outperformed what was expected of us, but to qualify we will need even more. Good thing is that we play Villa at home for last fixture. If they manage to secure first place in the group until then, they might send reserves or youth players to Mostar, which might be our chance for points.

AZ bounced back a little bit, after defeat in first fixture, and have 2 toughest matches in the next 2. They will certainly hope to get at least something in Villa fixtures, because if they lose both games, and Legia gets 6 against Zrinjski, they will be in very tough position. I think AZ will try to smash Zrinjski at home to pay back for humiliation in first fixture, but Legia will try to do the same to them, for obvious reasons.

Aston Villa started slowly, but will probably take AZ more seriously. For them, everything depends on how much they rotate. Their rotation players are obviously not as good as their first team. They are favorites to win the competition, and will probably look to finish first in group, and not just in top2. If they get 4 or 6 points against AZ, they are in good position to do that, as they play Legia at home and Zrinjski away in last 2 fixtures.

Unexpectedly interesting group, after the draw, most people thought it will be mostly straight forward, but so far it's not going that way. All teams with something to play for, as nobody is secure to either qualify of get knocked out.