2026 World Cup - European qualifiers

[Korgutt]

Intuition!

No, seriously, in order to avoid deadlock in the draw they have to use UNL GS ranking and there is - for the first time - a clause in the FIFA WCQ regulations allowing a draw to be seeded not according to the FIFA World Ranking. No other confederation will use the clause.

England in Pot 2? Just forget it. Will not happen. FIFA will use the FIFA-ranking with some adjustments I think.

[Jackson Harrison]

Intuition!

No, seriously, in order to avoid deadlock in the draw they have to use UNL GS ranking and there is - for the first time - a clause in the FIFA WCQ regulations allowing a draw to be seeded not according to the FIFA World Ranking. No other confederation will use the clause.

That clause existed in 2022 when UEFA used GS ranking not FIFA ranking for PO draw.

@Korgutt - Tazmania has no sources and is talking rubbish, no idea why as it will put his (and my) home country (England) in Pot 2 which would decrease our chances of qualifying dramatically.

Could end up with Portugal or France or Hungary in a group of 4 and end up 2nd and get an away PO single leg and loose!

[Tazmania]

Time will tell but I stick with my prediction in this regard.

I dismiss the notion that FIFA seeds the pots based on the teams involved; Italy in pot two for the 2018 WCQ draw is a case in point.

[Korgutt]

Intuition!

No, seriously, in order to avoid deadlock in the draw they have to use UNL GS ranking and there is - for the first time - a clause in the FIFA WCQ regulations allowing a draw to be seeded not according to the FIFA World Ranking. No other confederation will use the clause.

That clause existed in 2022 when UEFA used GS ranking not FIFA ranking for PO draw.

@Korgutt - Tazmania has no sources and is talking rubbish, no idea why as it will put his (and my) home country (England) in Pot 2 which would decrease our chances of qualifying dramatically.

Could end up with Portugal or France or Hungary in a group of 4 and end up 2nd and get an away PO single leg and loose!

But I guess all nations top 2 in League A will be in the same pot in next year qualifying? And probably with no name in the draw? Because the winners of the quarterfinals in march 2025 must be in a group of 4. And there will not be enough groups available for 8 nations in group of 4.

[Tazmania]

Yes, the eight League A quarterfinalists will be represented by placeholders (Winner QF1, Loser QF1, etc.), with the four winners drawn into the groups of four teams.

UEFA will make the NL KO stage draw in November, so we will know the quarterfinal ties before the WCQ draw.

[Witkop1983]

I don't understand why UEFA decided to make smaller groups. It will just be even more luck-based than it was with groups of 6.

Shouldn't it be UEFA's goal to send the best teams to the WC?

[Shing]

I don't understand why UEFA decided to make smaller groups. It will just be even more luck-based than it was with groups of 6.

Shouldn't it be UEFA's goal to send the best teams to the WC?

Smaller groups may reduce the number of dead rubber

[Tazmania]

The reason was commercial; the level of fan engagement was not as high as expected because larger groups lead to more predictability (see the AFC format as one of the worst examples of this).

Six games is sufficient to base a qualifying campaign on and there is the guarantee of playoffs for group runners-up too. UEFA club competition groups also comprised six games each.

By truncating qualifiers, UEFA is betting heavily on the UNL by extending it with additional KO games in March.

[Diouf]

FIFA will use the UNL group stage ranking to make the draw in December with 12 teams in pots 1-4 and 6 teams in pot 5 (assuming Russia remains suspended).

Pot 1: NL A positions 1-3 (no teams available for European Qualifiers in March 2025)
Pot 2: NL A position 4 and B positions 1-2 (8 teams available for European Qualifiers in March 2025)
Pot 3: NL B positions 3-4 and C position 1 (8 teams available for European Qualifiers in March 2025)
Pot 4: NL C positions 2-4 (6 teams available for European Qualifiers March 2025)
Pot 5: NL D positions 1-3 (4 teams available for European Qualifiers in March 2025)

This makes a lot of sense. And since C/D playoff is not until 2026, the last two pots are actually 8 and 6 teams availaible. So we can get the full six groups of five, where each has four teams available to play two matches in March 2025.
So almost gonna be a draw of "two halves" below pot 1.

[Witkop1983]

So pot 2, 3 and 4 each have 4 teams that are known to go into a 4 team group and 8 teams of which 2 go into a 4 team group and 6 that go into a 5 team group

[shemi]

That clause existed in 2022 when UEFA used GS ranking not FIFA ranking for PO draw.

From the 2022 WCQ regulations: "Any seeding based on team performance for each confederation’s preliminary competition shall be based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking."

From the 2026 WCQ regulations: "Any seeding based on team performance for each confederation’s preliminary competition shall, in principle, be based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking. Only the FIFA Organising Committee may approve exceptions to these criteria for the preliminary competition."

[Matt7r]

So pot 2, 3 and 4 each have 4 teams that are known to go into a 4 team group and 8 teams of which 2 go into a 4 team group and 6 that go into a 5 team group

Yes and it feels quite unbalanced in terms of the qualifying groups it might produce (assuming everyone takes nations league seriously and finishes in their rightful place and these are then used strictly for seeding). Especially bad for mid table league B countries - Countries finishing 2nd in their NL B group will be in play offs (vs 3rds in NL A) so will need to be in 4 team groups with a 4 out of 6 chance of drawing one of the four NL A final four and they will also have a 4 in 6 chance of drawing a country who finished 3rd in NL B (who play off vs 2nds in NL C) So a good chance that in qualifying they face both a favourite to not only reach, but progress to L16/QF in the World Cup, plus a side that is pretty evenly matched with them.

Some real incentive for NL B countries to win their group as it means more likely to face a lower ranked top seed - and - a good chance of getting one of the 4 NL group winner places in the WC play offs as a back up (as you’d expect most of the Final Four to at least reach the WC playoffs) plus more likely to face an easier country from Pot 3 (and indeed Pot 4) in the WC groups.

[YAYgee]

So pot 2, 3 and 4 each have 4 teams that are known to go into a 4 team group and 8 teams of which 2 go into a 4 team group and 6 that go into a 5 team group

Yes and it feels quite unbalanced in terms of the qualifying groups it might produce (assuming everyone takes nations league seriously and finishes in their rightful place and these are then used strictly for seeding). Especially bad for mid table league B countries - Countries finishing 2nd in their NL B group will be in play offs (vs 3rds in NL A) so will need to be in 4 team groups with a 4 out of 6 chance of drawing one of the four NL A final four and they will also have a 4 in 6 chance of drawing a country who finished 3rd in NL B (who play off vs 2nds in NL C) So a good chance that in qualifying they face both a favourite to not only reach, but progress to L16/QF in the World Cup, plus a side that is pretty evenly matched with them.

Some real incentive for NL B countries to win their group as it means more likely to face a lower ranked top seed - and - a good chance of getting one of the 4 NL group winner places in the WC play offs as a back up (as you’d expect most of the Final Four to at least reach the WC playoffs) plus more likely to face an easier country from Pot 3 (and indeed Pot 4) in the WC groups.

How does this work?

Final 4 teams take up 4 top seeds of the 6 groups of 4. So 2 groups of 4 left yet 4 top-seeded 3rd placed teams (from League A); no problem fitting in their promotion/relegation play-offs if 2 of these 4 top-seeded 3rd placed teams have to be drawn into groups of 5? Same goes for the runners-up teams (League A). All 12 top seeds have either quarterfinal or pro/rel play-off games in March 2025 (only Final 4 teams have Finals in June). So if it's no problem for the 8 top seeds that don't reach the Final 4 to be in groups of 5 (despite playing quarterfinal or pro/rel play-off games in March 2025) then why is it a problem for League B runners-up/do they have to be drawn into groups of 4 (similarly for 3rd placed teams in League B/runners-up League C)?

[Matt7r]

So pot 2, 3 and 4 each have 4 teams that are known to go into a 4 team group and 8 teams of which 2 go into a 4 team group and 6 that go into a 5 team group

Yes and it feels quite unbalanced in terms of the qualifying groups it might produce (assuming everyone takes nations league seriously and finishes in their rightful place and these are then used strictly for seeding). Especially bad for mid table league B countries - Countries finishing 2nd in their NL B group will be in play offs (vs 3rds in NL A) so will need to be in 4 team groups with a 4 out of 6 chance of drawing one of the four NL A final four and they will also have a 4 in 6 chance of drawing a country who finished 3rd in NL B (who play off vs 2nds in NL C) So a good chance that in qualifying they face both a favourite to not only reach, but progress to L16/QF in the World Cup, plus a side that is pretty evenly matched with them.

Some real incentive for NL B countries to win their group as it means more likely to face a lower ranked top seed - and - a good chance of getting one of the 4 NL group winner places in the WC play offs as a back up (as you’d expect most of the Final Four to at least reach the WC playoffs) plus more likely to face an easier country from Pot 3 (and indeed Pot 4) in the WC groups.

How does this work?

Final 4 teams take up 4 top seeds of the 6 groups of 4. So 2 groups of 4 left yet 4 top-seeded 3rd placed teams (from League A); no problem fitting in their promotion/relegation play-offs if 2 of these 4 top-seeded 3rd placed teams have to be drawn into groups of 5? Same goes for the runners-up teams (League A). All 12 top seeds have either quarterfinal or pro/rel play-off games in March 2025 (only Final 4 teams have Finals in June). So if it's no problem for the 8 top seeds that don't reach the Final 4 to be in groups of 5 (despite playing quarterfinal or pro/rel play-off games in March 2025) then why is it a problem for League B runners-up/do they have to be drawn into groups of 4 (similarly for 3rd placed teams in League B/runners-up League C)?

The problem is that the groups of 5 need 4 countries to be available on matchdays 1 and 2. Since all 12 top seeds are involved in either the nations league QF or A/B playoffs, you need all other 4 sides in the groups of 5 to play two matches in March 2025. By the way, this is why the two League C/D play off matches are being held back for a year - you need all of the League D sides to play on the first two matchdays as they are sure to be in 5 team groups.

This all assumes UEFA use nations league positions to decide seeding which we don’t know yet, but if they don’t (and instead use FIFA world ranking which has been the historic norm, certainly recently) then you would expect some differences though it’s impossible to say at this point how big those issues might be and how they would be dealt with.

But, as mentioned above in this thread they have the potential to create a deadlock where 4 countries aren’t available in March in some 5 country groups (I haven’t fully got my head round this but I’m thinking that happens if more than 6 “unavailable” countries are clustered into multiple pots and no country from pot 1 is available to fill the void or a pot 5 team finishes high enough to be in the B/C play off - latter seems unlikely).

In case of deadlock I’d speculate that there is a backup plan which UEFA could employ (though they have made no mention of in their comms) which is to play 5 matches (rather than 4) on some of the double matchdays in deadlocked groups where 4 countries aren’t available in March to catch up on any missed matches - so each country plays twice albeit playing one of the matches on the first Wednesday of the international window to ensure rest days. An example of fixtures might be:

Wed - 1v2, Thu - 3v4, Sat - 5v1, Tue - 2v3 and 4v5

This way of shoehorning in two matches each is actually being used by concacaf in their second round World Cup qualifying matches in June 2024 and 2025. So the potential problems aren’t insurmountable!

[Tazmania]

FIFA will try to avoid that though in the interests of having as comprehensible a format as possible, bearing in mind that NT football has more followers who do not follow football as closely as those who follow club football.

Another clue this week that FIFA will seed the UEFA WCQ draw based on UNL ranking came from this page:

Thirty-three national teams have earned at least one promotion, which highlights how they are able to generate momentum via the competition. As well as climbing the Nations League ladder, they improve their chances of a more favourable draw in the European Qualifiers, so creating a virtuous circle.

https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/ ... -momentum/