UEFA European Football Forum

The last sentence is equivalent to "I don't understand statistics". "Eye test" is just nonsense. You can believe that the model is innacurate or biased, but you need more than "feelings". Did Brugge and Brest met in Europe? No? So how on Earth can you make such a claim...

This. Most people don't understand anything in statistics. At all. They seem patterns where there is just some statistical noise, and they try to explain this "pattern" with outlandish explanations. Agreed. Just look at this whole thread about Opta's model. They claim the model is wrong b...

I am not defending their results, quite the opposite. I am just pointing that statistical models are based on, well, statistics about past results + random events (like draws).

What? Mr. ELO himself is telling us not to rely on ELO ratings? :lol: More seriously though, this level of analysis based on one season is very poor. It's like when there was no English team in the semis of CL 2009/10 after several years of dominance; I remember people were quick to speculate about...

According to Opta the chances for top 2 are 1. Italy 91% 2. England 81.9% 3. Germany 22.1%% 4. France 3.1% 5. Czechia 1.1% 6. Spain 0.6% 7. Belgium 0.1% I saw this estimation too. I can agree for England chances, I think it will reach 1st position: ManCity, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa have many...

In Kosovo, Liria is already confirmed to be relegated, and we might have our second team, Fushë Kosova , confirmed this week as well. Both clubs were just promoted last season but sadly couldn't handle the level of Superliga. This is becoming a concerning trend in Kosovo football, as every season a...

Vitesse lost again today. They need at least 5 points in the remaining 6 games to reach the promotion/relegation play-off. Also major financial troubles in Arnhem. They played in ECL in 2021/2022 and reached the round of 16. It hasn't been mentionned, but with a 18 points penalty, Vitesse is offici...

I mostly disagree with you both for the top 3. With the pots being "useless" now, seeding only matters in qualifying rounds. So the 2nd EL spot and the ECL spot need to be taken by teams who will survive in the qualfiers. For me, the best would be Gent and Brugge, but I doubt Brugge will f...

OM was nothing special. In one way a defeat for benfica its always good, on the other way, if they have won they would be more keen to keep this *great* coach. It will be a pitty if he leaves. Yes, Marseille is so up and down in eyrope fixtures but somehow they have managed to survive again. In Lig...

England is almost out of the race for the EPS.

If: Real - Barelona - Atlético win: Spain 3x2+3 = 9 points (1.125 coefficient) West Ham - Leverkusen is a draw Bayern - Arsenal is a draw (Arsenal qualifies): Germany 2x1 + 1 = 3 points (0.428 coefficient) Liverpool and Aston Villa loses (Lille qualifies): England 2x1 +1 = 3 points (0.375 coefficien...

I’m not saying that Liverpool will advance, but I will say that they far from out. Anything is possible, but I can't remember if ever happened losing by 3 goals at home and turned it around? I remember some Romanian team losing 3-0 off the ground and turning it around on the second leg, was it Dina...

Liverpool out, Leverkusen with a feet in semis. Good away win for Roma and minimal win for benfica I’m not saying that Liverpool will advance, but I will say that they far from out. Anything is possible, but I can't remember if ever happened losing by 3 goals at home and turned it around? Round of ...

not all UEFA teams are European (Israel, Kazakhstan, Armenia) and others only partly (Spain, Greece, Italy, Turkey, Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Portugal (?)). Also Malta (on the African plate) and Cyprus (Asia) are technically not European. Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy are mainly in ...

The expected coefficients tab was added at both spreadsheets. We can see there the expected boost of the top countries (currently 4 countries are expected to get over 20 coefficient at next season). Since this model is actually underestimating the performance of top countries cause at these countri...