Battles for important ranking positions 2022-2023

[amirbachar]

Luck is more important than quality to get into the group. The Swiss model should also be introduced in the qualifications like what is coming in 2024/25 in the GS

Luck is important also in the World Cup, Euro and Champions League knock-out rounds, i hope someone does not propose a swiss model also for those stages

Let's say Hajduk overcame Portugal's Vittoria G. with 3-1, and it could have been 5-1 as seen. If he passes in PO, he goes to Villarreal, if he loses, he is relegated. Due to a defeat against a Top 15 European team, you are eliminated from the ECL qualification. This is not normal, nor do such strong teams have a place in the ECL qualifications. When you play the Swiss system, you play with 4 different opponents, so you can make up for the loss against Villarreal against other opponents.

This is what people don;t understand - having teams from top countries qualify directly makes the whole qualifying more fair, and less dependent on draws. People that suggest having all teams in qualifying for CL as well only makes the rankings and luck count more than the ability.

[Stadion]

For you guys who are doing your own 'simulations' in terms of what the ranking will look like based on qualifier performances -- how do you think Sweden's coefficient would fare if all 3 teams still in the running go all the way to the ECL groups? Any chance for top 15 at all? Or what would be the highest realistic position on the country ranking?

[babaluj1]

For you guys who are doing your own 'simulations' in terms of what the ranking will look like based on qualifier performances -- how do you think Sweden's coefficient would fare if all 3 teams still in the running go all the way to the ECL groups? Any chance for top 15 at all? Or what would be the highest realistic position on the country ranking?

This season, Sweden is too far from 15th place, it has a gap of over 5.000 coefficients, but with 3 clubs in the GS ECL, Sweden would significantly climb the Country ranking, and it would be easier for it in the coming years. It would probably achieve a record number of points/coefficient in one season.

[Dragonite]

This is what people don;t understand - having teams from top countries qualify directly makes the whole qualifying more fair, and less dependent on draws. People that suggest having all teams in qualifying for CL as well only makes the rankings and luck count more than the ability.

No it doesn't.

Directly qualifying teams #1-#10 because some losers claim that they were "unlucky" to meet a "top" team and would have prevailed against the "rest" doesn't solve any problem.

If you remove the #1-#10 from the equation, then when they're eliminated by the #11-20 ("new top 10") they'll keep saying exactly the same.




Let's have a look at Hajduk Split's example.

They qualified to the Europa League group stages in 2010/2011, where they were last placed in their group with Zenit, Anderlecht and AEK Athens with a 1-0-5.

After that, in the following eleven seasons they were always eliminated in the qualifiers:

2011/2012 EL QR3 by Stoke City from England
2012/2013 EL QR3 by Internazionale from Italy
2013/2014 EL QR3 by Dila Gori from Georgia
2014/2015 EL QR4 by Dnipro from Ukraine
2015/2016 EL QR4 by Slovan Liberec from Czech Republic
2016/2017 EL QR4 by Maccabi Tel-Aviv from Israel
2017/2018 EL QR4 by Everton from England
2018/2019 EL QR3 by Steaua Bucharest from Romania
2019/2020 EL QR1 by Gzira from Malta
2020/2021 EL QR3 by Galatasaray from Turkey
2021/2022 Conference League QR2 by Tobol from Kazakhstan


So if they wanted to avoid Villarreal and the rest of the "scary" teams in Conference League qualifiers, they should have collected more points in the previous half-decade, as simple as that.



Hajduk Split's low ranking (#150 in UEFA Club Ranking) reflects their inability to prevail against teams like Tobol, Galatasaray, Gzira, Steaua Bucharest or Everton over the last half-decade.

[Firnen]

For you guys who are doing your own 'simulations' in terms of what the ranking will look like based on qualifier performances -- how do you think Sweden's coefficient would fare if all 3 teams still in the running go all the way to the ECL groups? Any chance for top 15 at all? Or what would be the highest realistic position on the country ranking?

Sweden would need to get 4.500 points more than Czech Republic and 4.000 points more than Denmark to have any hopes for 15th (if we assume Norway, Switzerland and Ukraine will be the others).

They would need a 9.000-10.000 season probably. Which is highly unlikely.

[babaluj1]

This is what people don;t understand - having teams from top countries qualify directly makes the whole qualifying more fair, and less dependent on draws. People that suggest having all teams in qualifying for CL as well only makes the rankings and luck count more than the ability.

No it doesn't.

Directly qualifying teams #1-#10 because some losers claim that they were "unlucky" to meet a "top" team and would have prevailed against the "rest" doesn't solve any problem.

If you remove the #1-#10 from the equation, then when they're eliminated by the #11-20 ("new top 10") they'll keep saying exactly the same.

Look at Hajduk's lineup against Vittoria G, and look at Hajduk's lineup 2 years ago against Galatasaray. It is a completely new team. Hajduk is certainly among the 10 strongest clubs in these qualifications, right behind the clubs of the league 5 and alongside the strongest clubs from other leagues such as Young Boys, Slavia, AZ Alkmaar.... Vittoria G. is not a bad team and they are certainly among the 15, 20 strongest teams in these qualifications, but in Split they are looked like amateurs.

[Todor]

Look at Hajduk's lineup against Vittoria G, and look at Hajduk's lineup 2 years ago against Galatasaray. It is a completely new team. Hajduk is certainly among the 10 strongest clubs in these qualifications, right behind the clubs of the league 5 and alongside the strongest clubs from other leagues such as Young Boys, Slavia, AZ Alkmaar.... Vittoria G. is not a bad team and they are certainly among the 15, 20 strongest teams in these qualifications, but in Split they are looked like amateurs.

Talk is cheap. Their results in the past and the results of the other Croatian clubs apart of DZ say otherwise. Besides there is a match to be played in Portugal before they face Villarreal. Don't jinx them .

[babaluj1]

Look at Hajduk's lineup against Vittoria G, and look at Hajduk's lineup 2 years ago against Galatasaray. It is a completely new team. Hajduk is certainly among the 10 strongest clubs in these qualifications, right behind the clubs of the league 5 and alongside the strongest clubs from other leagues such as Young Boys, Slavia, AZ Alkmaar.... Vittoria G. is not a bad team and they are certainly among the 15, 20 strongest teams in these qualifications, but in Split they are looked like amateurs.

Talk is cheap. Their results in the past and the results of the other Croatian clubs apart of DZ say otherwise. Besides there is a match to be played in Portugal before they face Villarreal. Don't jinx them .

You first watch the played match, then comment. Hajduk is a class better team and I don't believe they will lose even in Portugal. At the moment, Hajduk is somewhere on the level of Dinamo,croatian CW 2022, they beat Dinamo twice this year and recently drew in Zagreb in the Supercup final, which they lost on penalties. About the size of the Hajduk club itself, you don't need to explain anything to anyone in the Balkans, millions of fans from Croatia and abroad, the most trophy-winning Croatian club in the former Yugoslavia, two CL quarter-finals.

[amirbachar]

This is what people don;t understand - having teams from top countries qualify directly makes the whole qualifying more fair, and less dependent on draws. People that suggest having all teams in qualifying for CL as well only makes the rankings and luck count more than the ability.

No it doesn't.

Directly qualifying teams #1-#10 because some losers claim that they were "unlucky" to meet a "top" team and would have prevailed against the "rest" doesn't solve any problem.

If you remove the #1-#10 from the equation, then when they're eliminated by the #11-20 ("new top 10") they'll keep saying exactly the same.




Let's have a look at Hajduk Split's example.

They qualified to the Europa League group stages in 2010/2011, where they were last placed in their group with Zenit, Anderlecht and AEK Athens with a 1-0-5.

After that, in the following eleven seasons they were always eliminated in the qualifiers:

2011/2012 EL QR3 by Stoke City from England
2012/2013 EL QR3 by Internazionale from Italy
2013/2014 EL QR3 by Dila Gori from Georgia
2014/2015 EL QR4 by Dnipro from Ukraine
2015/2016 EL QR4 by Slovan Liberec from Czech Republic
2016/2017 EL QR4 by Maccabi Tel-Aviv from Israel
2017/2018 EL QR4 by Everton from England
2018/2019 EL QR3 by Steaua Bucharest from Romania
2019/2020 EL QR1 by Gzira from Malta
2020/2021 EL QR3 by Galatasaray from Turkey
2021/2022 Conference League QR2 by Tobol from Kazakhstan


So if they wanted to avoid Villarreal and the rest of the "scary" teams in Conference League qualifiers, they should have collected more points in the previous half-decade, as simple as that.



Hajduk Split's low ranking (#150 in UEFA Club Ranking) reflects their inability to prevail against teams like Tobol, Galatasaray, Gzira, Steaua Bucharest or Everton over the last half-decade.

Mathematically it would reduce the luck in the draw, it is not even a question. You may say that you still rather have all teams play for qualification, and it's fine, but there are consequences for that.

[Agent327]

Didn't know of this should have an own topic but here it goes........

Summary of QR3 1st leg

The day all NA's will be active is drawing nearer, plus the start of EL, it's time to give a quick summary about the 1 leg QR3

So this will be like a kick-off point. Sorry for all the fans from nations or teams which already bowed out of the competition, I drew the line here.

Disclaimers.
1. If you find some discrepancies, in facts , names or miscalculations please let me know. I will fix them accordingly.
2. I will try to get a summary after each match week played, if people are interested in.
3. And I know, this is based on the format list currently active. But since there is still no official access list available for the next cycle, I will keep
battle stages 'old format'. I will change this if the new list is officially published.

Before I get steam rolling away first some explanations.
Ranking is based on the current standings.
The number of wins, draws, defeats and points won are based on this matchday only
The eliminated teams are all the teams eliminated up to this round.
Bonus points are not taken into account

Top 3 QR3 first leg
1. Norway, Israel: 0.750 points
2. Sweden 0.625 points
3. Belgium 0.600 points



Apex group (place 1 to 4):

No country has been active yet, but draws for the playoffs are known.

1. England: 0 wins - 0 draws- 0 defeats - 0 eliminated teams = 0.000 points
West ham will start in PO at home against probably Viborg FF (DEN) They won the first leg with 3-0 against B36 Tórshavn (FRO)

2. Spain: 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.000 points
Villareal will battle against the winner of Hajduk Split (CRO) / Vitória SC (POR) in which (IMO) Hajduk are currently favourite (3-1 win at home), albeit it is with the tiniest margin.

3. Germany: 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.000 points
1. FC Köln (GER) shouldn't have a problem against Fehérvár (HUN) who with their 5-0 home win against Petrocub Hincesti (MDA) are almost certain their adversaries in the PO round. Still, accidents happen

4. Italy: 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.000 points
ACF Fiorentina (ITA) - FC Twente (NED) / FK Čukarički (SRB) This probably will be a clash against the Dutch, who took a 3-1 win away back home.
Maybe it's fair to say that of the 4 nations, they have the toughest opponent? Still, this tie shouldn't be a problem in normal circumstances.

Scramble for multiple group stage entries (place 5-6-7)

Just what the title says.

5. France: 0 - 1 - 0 - 0 = 0.083 points
France first action this season showed a slow starting AS Monaco.
After a poor first half an a much better second one, a draw was all As Monaco could manage against PSV Eindhoven (NED). We have to see if it's enough Tuesday evening to reach he CLPO

6. Netherlands: 1 - 0 - 1 - 0 = 0.200 points
Can the Dutch pull another trick from their sleeve like last year? They surely got the most out of the expansion to 3 cups last year, not to mention the soap around the Spurs bowing out, in favour of Vitesse.

AZ stumbled over Dundee United (SCO) and were send home with a 1-0 defeat. This means a must win at home to let their hopes of reaching the next round alive.
FC Twente (NED) did what was expected, an away win against FK Čukarički (SRB)
Advantage for the Netherlands is the divider. With one less team in the equation they can put pressure on their direct competitors if, (and only if) they can equal the outcome of FRA and POR

7. Portugal: 0 - 1 - 1 - 0 = 0.083 points
Is this the year Portugal will again lose 2 teams before the group stages, just like the past 2 seasons?

Gil Vicente drew away against Riga FC (LVA) which is a bad result according to ranking (although it was an away game)
And home team Hajduk Split (CRO) won over Vitória SC with a two goal difference, that's not easy to overcome in the return

Springboard to the stars (place 8-11)

The cut-off point is placed between place 7 and 8, due to the fact that the gap between them is enormous.
And I include place 11 for the possible direct entry in CLGS

8. Scotland: 1 - 0 - 1 - 1 = 0.200 points
The highest ranked country which lost a team already
Scotland had an uneven year last season, with 3 teams already eliminated before the group stage, but Rangers reaching the final of the EL

This season however Glasgow Rangers lost on the road to Union Saint-Gilloise (BEL) with 2-0, so there's a bit of work to do at Ibrox.
Yet, the cushion they have in the event losing could be a blessing in disguise, when they can duplicate the run of last year
While Motherwell lost in the conference league 2nd qualifying round against a beatable opponent Dundee United is alive and kicking.
They won against a higher ranked opponent (AZ of the Netherlands) If they cling on they would get a great opportunity to get a 3rd team in the group stage

9.Austria: 0 - 1 - 2 - 0 = 0.100 points
A bad week from the Austrians, just earning half a point with three games

Sturm Graz returned home with smallest defeat possible (only if you see it in absolute numbers) against a Dynamo Kiev (UKR)
So on paper a good position for the return, just score (at least) 1 more time than the Ukrainians to reach at least the extra time part.
Rapid Wien losing to Neftchi Baku with 2-1, but if they host the Azerbaijani side next week, repairing the damage wouldn't be a mountain to climb. (--> although, in Austria)
Wolfsberger AC had a disappointed draw against Gzira United from Malta

10. Belgium: 3 - 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.600 points
After a disappointing year, they start on 10th and will probably score more points compared to last season.
At least they're obligated to do so if they want to remain among to 10 best countries

This round they came out guns blasting with 3 wins in 3 games, two of them away
Debut team Union Saint-Gilloise surprised Glasgow Rangers with 2-0.
Royal Antwerp suppressed a potential surprise from Lillestrøm SK (NOR) with a 1-3 victory,
while RSC Anderlecht played with minimum input to get maximum outcome against Paide Linnameeskond (EST) 0-2

11. Serbia: 1 - 0 - 2 - 1 = 0.250 points
Can Serbia look up? Or do they have to look behind. Everything depends on the number of teams reaching the GS

Red Star demolished Pyunik Yerevan (ARM) and will have no problem reaching the playoffs
Partizan Belgrade surprising loss against AEK Larnaca (CYP) could leave a nasty taste if for some reason they will bottle it up the next weeks
The last remaining side saw a foreseeable loss against Dutch side FC Twente (NED) Sadly this will give Cukaricki Belgrade little hope to survive this round
The fourth team Radnicki Nis stumbled at the first hurdle against low flyers Gzira United (MLT) in ECLQ2. Maybe they fly higher than expected…...

The fear of dropping out group (place 12-15)

The gap between this group and the group above isn't big. But the same goes for the group behind them.
Stay in this group and you have at least 2 teams starting in CLQR

12. Russia: expelled from competition.
Nothing much to ad without triggering political discussions.
(One personal note) The distribution of points is highly questionable/ arbitrary. No solution will be satisfactory for all.
But as long as Russian teams are excluded from participating the discussion becomes redundant

13. Norway: 3 - 0 - 1 - 0 = 0.750 points
Has Norway ever been this high on the ranking?
The answer: yes. They even reached 10th place in 1998. But this is a new millennia, so new ball game.

Last season the foundation was laid (17 wins, 7 draws and 8 defeats, and from the latter 7 of them were in QR) could they start to cement it?
Maybe, this year they're already have a 10-1-3 stat

Bodø/Glimt will cruise to the CLPO with a 5-0 victory in the bag against Zalgiris Vilnius (LIT)
"With Viking Stavanger (5-1 victory) against Sligo Rovers (IRL) and Molde FK (3-0) against Kisvárda FC (HUN) adding to the party joy."
Only Lillestrøm SK was a dissonant, though there is no shame losing against a higher ranked team from Belgium, Royal Antwerp.

14. Ukraine: 2 - 0 - 0 - 1 = 0.400 points
What to say about Ukraine…..it could be disastrous, just like the situation in their homeland (with, I must add, far larger problems than a ranking battle) But sticking to football.

Will the narrow win of Dynamo Kiev against Sturm Graz be enough to setup a clash against Benfica in the play off round? Or is it better to play a level lower with more opportunities to win points…
Zorya Luhansk won with the same score as Dynamo Kiev against Universitatea Craiova (ROM) but they have no safety net like them.
This could be the pivotal game for Ukraine to have some breathing space to hang on in the top 15, after they lost Vorskla Poltava in the previous round.

15. Switzerland: 2 - 0 - 2 - 0 = 0.500 points
Switzerland is living on the edge, with no contestant in CL anymore. They need 3 teams in the group stages to avoid a nail biting season.

After FC Zurich lost in the CLQ2 against Qarabag FK (AZB), they'll defend a 2-0 lead against Linfield Belfast (NIR) at home to secure at least a group stage
The other win is credited to Young Boys, which also noted an away 2-0 victory against Finnish opponents KuPS Kuopio
The 1-0 loss to Brondby gives FC Basel no room for error. They will have step up their game, because the Danes are no pushovers.
FC Lugano, mmm…. the expectations I had and the final result couldn't be further apart. I really had pencilled in a (small) win. So all credit to Hapoel Beer-Sheva (ISR) to make me feel humble with their 2-0 away win.
This is probably game over for the Swiss.

The pursuers of happiness: (place 16-29)

These nations have all their non champions teams starting in 2nd qualification round or higher (except the 3rd placed team of the nation ranked 29th) thus avoiding 1 hurdle on the way to Walhalla.

16. Greece: 0 - 1 - 2 - 1 = 0.125 points
The Greek picked the worst time to have an off -season start in Europe. Maybe they swapped places with Turkey regarding summer form? I don't know. Could they salvage a horrible start? We will see.

After a disastrous beginning (AND PAOK Thessaloniki losing the 2nd QR with the latter even eliminated) they are looking like lemmings running towards a cliff.
Olympiakos Piraeus draw at home against Slovan Bratislava (SVK) which implicates a storm on the horizon.
Furthermore Aris Thessaloniki (a 2-0 loss against Maccabi Tel-Aviv (ISR)) and Panathinaikos with the same deficit score against Slavia Praha (CZE)
couldn't compensate. If they don't step up, it will be a lost season which will hunt them for years.

17. Czech Republic: 2 - 0 - 1 - 1 = 0.500 points
It looks like they score an average this season.

Viktoria Plzen is cruising to the play-offs with their 1-2 away win against Sheriff Tiraspol (MOL)
The republic need it because 1.FC Slovácko have to repair a 3-0 loss against Fenerbahçe (TUR) And Sparta Praha was already eliminated.
"Their flagship Slavia could be their saviour, with their 2-0 win against Panathinaikos (GRE)"

18. Denmark: 2 - 0 - 1 - 0 = 0.400 points
The Nordic countries seems on the rise, and Denmark could be the hammerhead.

Although FC Midtjylland lost heavily against Benfica, their backup is the (EL)GS
And this is a life line for two other Danish clubs too, which haven't played even, FC København & Silkeborg IF.
In the conference league Viborg FF won easily against B36 Torshavn (FAR) and Brøndby IF took on FC Basel (SUI), gaining the edge on them.
One of those 2 countries while have a sigh of relief if they eliminate the other


19. Croatia: 2 - 0 - 0 - 2 = 0.500 points
Would Dinamo Zagreb be (again) the only team in a group stage?
The dependency on them gives Croatia a though task and Zagreb a high (pressured) responsibility

Dinamo Zagreb is just 1 match away from the group stages, and with their away win against Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL)
this sure looks bright.
Hajduk Split is the only other team still in the competition, and they do what they can. The 3-1 win against Vitória Guimarães (POR) gives them a nice head start.
NK Osijek and NK Rijeka didn't survive the previous round and were eliminated.

20. Turkey: 2 - 1 - 0 - 0 = 0.500 points
Has Turkey finally have a season with some light at the horizon after 'the dark ages?' It sure looks like it.
Although it's likely they won't be presented in the CL after the qualification rounds, (which is, browsing at Turkey's stats in the group stages recently, maybe a blessing in disguise) it sure looks like their full contingent will reach QR4.
And to emphasize this feat, Galatasaray and Besiktas, regulars in Europe, didn't even qualified.

"Two wins, Fenerbahçe - 1.FC Slovácko (CZE) 3-0, and Breidablik (ISL) - Istanbul Basaksehir 1-3, plus an away draw (FC Vaduz (LIE) - Konyaspor 1-1) gives them a good starting position with the other 2 teams yet to begin their campaign. If they proceed, two of them will likely see Austrian opposition.

21. Israel: 3 - 0 - 0 - 1 = 0.750 points
Are they not only in the wake of Turkey ranking wise, but result as well?
Even with an eliminated team already the stats from the other 3 are impressive so far with 4-2-0.
All 3 teams likely to progress to the next round

Maccabi Haifa is taking out Greek speaking opposition one by one. The return game against Apollon Limassol (CYP) looks like a formality
Maccabi Tel-Aviv is demolishing a Greek based (speaking) team too, although a 2-0 head start isn't so comfortable as Haifa has.
Hapoel Beer-Sheva had a bit of luck against FC Lugano (SUI), but with no luck none will get by.
If they hold their nerve in the home game, the 2-0 head start should be enough to win a spot in the next round

22. Cyprus: 2 - 0 - 0 - 1 = 0.500 points
It's a rocky boat there sitting in. Two teams starting in CL, almost certain both will drop(ped) down.
If they want to punch holes they should getting a 3rd team in the group stages

AEK Larnaca have to defend a 2-1 lead against Partizan (SRB) in Belgrade, a tricky task.
The same goes for APOEL Nicosia (1-0) against FK Kyzylzhar (KAZ) from Kazakhstan.
I don't know much about the Kazakhstan team, but APOEL is obligated to their status to win this.
Omonia Nicosia (not started yet) and Aris Limassol (already eliminated) takes Cypriot list to 4

23. Sweden: 2 - 1 - 0 - 1 = 0.625 points
The start of Sweden wasn't their best, far from it, with Malmo surprisingly exiting from CL and IF Elfsborg already eliminated.
This 3rd QR gave a big improvement, but not convincingly for all.

Malmö FF solid performance against (a very weak) F91 Dudelange (LUX) will probably get them in the group stage one way or another.
Djurgårdens IF followed suit with their 3-1 away win against Sepsi OSK (ROM) but AIK Stockholm had a disappointing draw against minnows Shkendija Tetovo (MAC) So still work to do for them.

24. Bulgaria: 1 - 0 - 2 - 1 = 0.250 points
Can they get a third season with 2 teams in the group stages? The way to it is a (very) bumpy road.
If they can overturn some results and have good play off rounds they might even put 3 teams in group stages. (not likely though)
The latter occurred only once before, the 05/06 season…..

Head and commander team Ludogorets Razgrad is more than a decade the main contributor for Bulgarian ranking.
And this could be true for this season too, although Dinamo Zagreb (CRO) put a dent in their ship by winning at Ludogorets. Still, the group stage is guaranteed.
CSKA Sofia suffered a surprise defeat (0-1) against St. Patrick's Athletic (IRL) while Levski Sofia's away win (0-1) should be followed with a second victory at home against low ranked Hamrun Spartans (MLT)
Botev Plovdiv was eliminated in the previous round

25. Hungary: 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 = 0.375 points
The feeling of Hungary is one of a (very slowly) crawling out of the swamp they've got themselves into from the late seventies, early eighties.
Is this dwelling in the twilight with stable results from Ferencváros finally over?
Probably another team racking up some points is needed to be sure.

Until now Ferencváros could repair the damage done in the first game with excellent scores in the return game. Would that be the case also with their 1-1 draw away against Qarabag FK (AZB)?
FC Fehérvár will have no problem reaching the next round (a 5-0 win against Petrocub Hîncesti from Moldova) but Kisvárda FC is already standing by the exit door due to their 3-0 loss against Molde FK (NOR)
joining fellow country team Puskás Akadémia (eliminated in QR2)

26. Slovakia: 0 - 1 - 2 - 1 = 0.125 points
Could Slovakia end up with no teams in group stages?
With a team already eliminated and 2 teams with home losses they're with their back against the wall.

Is Slovan Bratislava the only team getting lucky? With an away draw against a astonishing weak Olympiakos Piraeus (GRE) they have all cards still to play for.
The teams lost in the (Conference League) woods Spartak Trnava and DAC Dunajska Streda probably will never find a way out. The wins of Raków Czestochowa (POL) and FCSB (ROM) in Slovakia surely looks like it's game over.

27. Romania: 1 - 1 - 2 - 0 = 0.375 points
The lowest ranked country still in green (bar Liechtenstein) started poorly in the CL. All teams thus playing in the Conference League.
Would they stay in green. This round dark clouds are forming above their heads, and shelter is limited, so we'll see what's the damage
End result could be as far apart as 4 in or out, but probably will end in the middle

Brightest future ahead is for FCSB (ROM) snatching an 1-0 away win against DAC Dunajska Streda (SVK)
Adding the draw CFR Cluj had against Belarusian team Shakhtior Saligorsk won't compensate the losses of Sepsi OSK (1-3) against Djurgårdens IF (SWE) and Universitatea Craiova against Zorya Luhansk (1-0)

28. Poland: 1 - 0 - 1 - 1 = 0.250 points
Poland, notorious to get decent results (though eliminated still) against heavy weights and bottling against equal or lower ranked teams.
If they could flip these results, then drawing big opponents will be avoided, at least until the latter stages of the QR's or even only in the groups.

This season spearheads are teams Lech Poznan and Raków Czestochowa
With Lech dropping into the conference league after their elimination from CL through the hands of Qarabag, they make it themselves not easy with a 1-0 loss away against beatable opponent, Vikingur Reykjavik (ISL)
An rectification is in order to set up a clash against Swedish side Malmö (probably)
Raków Czestochowa have a 0-2 lead against Spartak Trnava (SVK) and with holding on, they get a PO round clash against an GS regular (Slavia Praha) or an big team from early days, Panathinaikos.
The other teams are already out of Europe.

29. Azerbaijan: 1 - 1 - 0 - 2 = 0.375 points
Azerbaijan already reduced to a two teams country will have (again) at least 1 team in the group stages.

Qarabag FK didn't have the greatest result against Ferencváros (HUN) with a home draw, but like I said, will land in a group stage nonetheless.
Neftchi Baku will defend a 2-1 lead in Austria against Rapid Wien, this could go either way.

Getting in, or dropping out: (place 30 - 50)

These are all about lifting your level to start in QR2 of the Conference league starting a round and avoiding to be dropping into the 3 team void
Further I have nothing much to say.

30. Slovenia: 0 - 0 - 1 - 3 = 0.000 points
They have only 1 trump card left. Can they play it on the right time?

"NK Maribor, already dropped out CL, is facing an uphill battle, with their 0-2 home loss against HJK Helsinki (FIN) "
Their potential playoff opponents, although not de creme de la creme, could be their end station, thus ending Slovenian season before group stages

31. Kazakhstan: 0 - 0 - 2 - 2 = 0.000 points
Are they even reach the group stages….
With two teams left it sure doesn't looks like it

Both remaining teams playing in the lowest tier, and both teams lost 1-0 away
Could they retake the upper hand at home?
FK Kyzylzhar vs. APOEL Nicosia (CYP) and Tobol Kustanai vs. Zrinjski Mostar (BIH) just have to score 2 goals more in the return.

32. Moldova: 0 - 0 - 2 - 2 = 0.000 points
1 team for sure in the group stage, but it looks like that's it.

Sheriff Tiraspol probably will drop to El or even ECL group stage (home loss against Czech Viktoria Plzen) being the only representative of Moldova
After only other club Petrocub Hîncesti got a 5-0 thrashing from FC Fehérvár (HUN)

33. Belarus: 0 - 1 - 0 - 3 = 0.125 points
The downfall looks like accelerating. This could be a drop into the deepest pit present

Only Champion Shakhtior Saligorsk (0-0) vs. CFR Cluj (ROM) presented. And without a safety net they would be already be eliminated.
(Only Dinamo Minsk survived 1 round, still got eliminated in round 2)

34. Kosovo: 1 - 0 - 0 - 3 = 0.250 points
Punching above their weight, I think they could reach the group stage (their sole surviving team)

With only FC Ballkani left, they will defend a 3-2 win, although their sloppy last minutes in their home game( giving 2 goals away) doesn't sound too trustworthy. Even with an adversary from the Faraoer Islands - KI Klaksvik

35. Latvia: 0 - 2 - 0 - 2 = 0.250 points
Taking advantage of a third cup? Probably, still results are achieved on the pitch. So with their 2 remaining teams they've a slim chances to get al the way.

The draw Riga FC vs Gil Vicente of Portugal is a great achievement already. The flip side is the same result RFS Riga got against Hibernians FC of Malta. A lot of work to do.

36. Finland: 1 - 0 - 1 - 2 = 0.250 points
Another country profited from the expansion to 3 cups. Not because they keep cumulating a shipload of points, rather than getting in the group stage at all.

"HJK Helsinki all but secured another group stage appearance with a 0-2 win against NK Maribor (SVN) in the ELQ3 first leg."
The other remaining team KuPS Kuopio got busted at home through the hands of Young Boys (SUI) and will likely not recover.

37. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1 - 0 - 0 - 3 = 0.250 points
Another 1 trump card country, another long shot to reach beyond the playoffs

With trembling legs travelling to Tobol Kustanai (KAZ) to defend a 1-0 lead, for Zrinjski Mostar it will probably their last achievement. It looks like the playoffs will be their end station anyway.

38. Ireland: 2 - 0 - 1 - 1 = 0.500 points
The Emerald Isle has a resurgent in getting results (did they ever?)

After this matchday 2 teams are in prime position to get to the next round.
"Shamrock Rovers had a clear cut victory against FK Shkupi (MAC) and shouldn't have any problem to defend their 3-1 lead,"
while CSKA Sofia (BUL) was set on the backburner by a loss on their own ground at the hands of St. Patrick's Athletic. (Sure a 1-0 leads is slim, but the away win counts for something, right?)
Alas Sligo Rovers devastating result in Norway against Viking Stavanger will give them no backup or hope. A victory would be nice though.

39. Lithuania: 0 - 0 - 1 - 3 = 0.000 points
It's like I'm repeating myself, but another country with a team decent enough to survive a couple of rounds, with no backup otherwise

First they exceeded themselves by kicking Malmo out of the CL. Now they brought back to earth at the hands of Bodø/Glimt (NOR)
So ELGS or ECLGS will be their landing strip.

Now we reach the lower part of this large group. Most countries will looking down in stead off up, fearing the drop further.

40. Luxembourg: 0 - 0 - 1 - 3 = 0.000 points
This season all seems to go wrong. Let's see if they can salvage something

F91 Dudelange 3-0 loss against a very weak Malmö FF (SWE) is a clear sign it's not a bed of roses for Luxembourg.
Hopefully they can turn it around, probably in the PO of ECL.

41. Armenia: 0 - 0 - 1 - 3 = 0.000 points
See previous, 1 club takes the world on their shoulders.

Again a team which get thrashed in 3rd round first leg after 2 rounds surviving.
"This time it's a 5-0 defeat for Pyunik Yerevan on the road to Red Star Belgrade(SRB) "
GS guaranteed though.

42. Faroe Islands: 0 - 0 - 2 - 2 = 0.000 points
Credit where credit is due, for such a small nation 2 teams in the 3rd round is a great achievement. Something in the air, maybe.

Will their great run end in the 3rd round?
"B36 Torshavn looks like running out of steam with a 3-0 away loss in Denmark (vs. Viborg FF)"
Losing KI Klaksvik at the hands of FC Ballkani (KOS) means the same, e.g. zero points. But It's clear their disadvantage is surmountable when they welcome the Kosovars at their home soil.

43. Northern Ireland: 0 - 0 - 1 - 3 = 0.000 points
it was a great season, but after this round it's over….
Wait..what? We get another shot at fame (reaching the group stage)

With their sole participant still alive, they probably drop down to the ECL PO to have another shot at it
Linfield Belfast should pull off a miracle in and against FC Zürich to pull through.

44. Georgia (4 teams)
The highest ranked country completely eliminated

45. Malta: 0 - 2 - 1 - 1 = 0.250 points
The pushovers of the past are pushing back. With 3 teams still in competition the day comes nearer a team from Malta reach paradise…..the group stage
could this season be THE season?

This round, with 2 away draws and 1 home loss lets the door ajar for getting in the PO, but maybe it stays with peeking round the corner.
First the two draws, Wolfsberger AC (AUT) - Gzira United and RFS Riga (LAT) - Hibernians FC. Great chance for them to see a positive result in the return.
Hamrun Spartans 1-0 loss at home against Levski Sofia (BUL) probably means game over. But don't count one's chickens before they are hatched.

46. Estonia: 0 - 0 - 1 - 2 = 0.000 points
A home defeat is probably the beginning of the end.

Paide Linnameeskond lost against a Belgian Anderlecht, Not much hope to continue.

47. Iceland: 1 - 0 - 1 - 1 = 0.333 points
Losing a team per round, that's not how to make it to the group stage.

Both teams still active, two very different outcomes.
Breidablik vs Istanbul Basaksehir (TUR) a 1-3 loss . Exit is most likely.
Vikingur Reykjavik vs Lech Poznan (POL) gave them home team a 1-0 win and a little breathing space for the Icelandic side.

48. Liechtenstein: 0 - 1 - 0 - 0 = 0.500 points
Only cup winner participate, and they're slipping down. In their case it doesn't matter with just 1 team.

FC Vaduz - Konyaspor (TUR) 1-1. Nothing more to add.

49 . Albania (4 teams) No longer active.

50. Wales (3 teams) No longer active.

The bear pit, or the abyss (place 51 - 55)

To avoid at all cost, sadly some has to end up below this line.

51. Gibraltar (4 teams) No longer active.

52. North Macedonia: 0 - 1 - 1 - 2 = 0.125 points
With two teams still in contention, could they claw their way out the bottom 5?

Irish side Shamrock Rovers doesn't blink an eye, winning 3-1 against FK Shkupi, so it looks like the North Macedonian side will continue in the conference league
" AIK Stockholm (SWE) losing their ground somewhat. On the other hand Shkendija Tetovo is pleased with the 1-1 draw in the Nordic country. Could they put the icing on the cake at home?"

53. Andorra (3 teams) No longer active.

54. Montenegro (4 teams) No longer active.

55. San Marino (3 teams) No longer active.

[Posmatrač]

Didn't know of this should have an own topic but here it goes........

Summary of QR3 1st leg

The day all NA's will be active is drawing nearer, plus the start of EL, it's time to give a quick summary about the 1 leg QR3

So this will be like a kick-off point. Sorry for all the fans from nations or teams which already bowed out of the competition, I drew the line here.

Disclaimers.
1. If you find some discrepancies, in facts , names or miscalculations please let me know. I will fix them accordingly.
2. I will try to get a summary after each match week played, if people are interested in.
3. And I know, this is based on the format list currently active. But since there is still no official access list available for the next cycle, I will keep
battle stages 'old format'. I will change this if the new list is officially published.

Before I get steam rolling away first some explanations.
Ranking is based on the current standings.
The number of wins, draws, defeats and points won are based on this matchday only
The eliminated teams are all the teams eliminated up to this round.
Bonus points are not taken into account

Top 3 QR3 first leg
1. Norway, Israel: 0.750 points
2. Sweden 0.625 points
3. Belgium 0.600 points



Apex group (place 1 to 4):

No country has been active yet, but draws for the playoffs are known.

1. England: 0 wins - 0 draws- 0 defeats - 0 eliminated teams = 0.000 points
West ham will start in PO at home against probably Viborg FF (DEN) They won the first leg with 3-0 against B36 Tórshavn (FRO)

2. Spain: 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.000 points
Villareal will battle against the winner of Hajduk Split (CRO) / Vitória SC (POR) in which (IMO) Hajduk are currently favourite (3-1 win at home), albeit it is with the tiniest margin.

3. Germany: 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.000 points
1. FC Köln (GER) shouldn't have a problem against Fehérvár (HUN) who with their 5-0 home win against Petrocub Hincesti (MDA) are almost certain their adversaries in the PO round. Still, accidents happen

4. Italy: 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.000 points
ACF Fiorentina (ITA) - FC Twente (NED) / FK Čukarički (SRB) This probably will be a clash against the Dutch, who took a 3-1 win away back home.
Maybe it's fair to say that of the 4 nations, they have the toughest opponent? Still, this tie shouldn't be a problem in normal circumstances.

Scramble for multiple group stage entries (place 5-6-7)

Just what the title says.

5. France: 0 - 1 - 0 - 0 = 0.083 points
France first action this season showed a slow starting AS Monaco.
After a poor first half an a much better second one, a draw was all As Monaco could manage against PSV Eindhoven (NED). We have to see if it's enough Tuesday evening to reach he CLPO

6. Netherlands: 1 - 0 - 1 - 0 = 0.200 points
Can the Dutch pull another trick from their sleeve like last year? They surely got the most out of the expansion to 3 cups last year, not to mention the soap around the Spurs bowing out, in favour of Vitesse.

AZ stumbled over Dundee United (SCO) and were send home with a 1-0 defeat. This means a must win at home to let their hopes of reaching the next round alive.
FC Twente (NED) did what was expected, an away win against FK Čukarički (SRB)
Advantage for the Netherlands is the divider. With one less team in the equation they can put pressure on their direct competitors if, (and only if) they can equal the outcome of FRA and POR

7. Portugal: 0 - 1 - 1 - 0 = 0.083 points
Is this the year Portugal will again lose 2 teams before the group stages, just like the past 2 seasons?

Gil Vicente drew away against Riga FC (LVA) which is a bad result according to ranking (although it was an away game)
And home team Hajduk Split (CRO) won over Vitória SC with a two goal difference, that's not easy to overcome in the return

Springboard to the stars (place 8-11)

The cut-off point is placed between place 7 and 8, due to the fact that the gap between them is enormous.
And I include place 11 for the possible direct entry in CLGS

8. Scotland: 1 - 0 - 1 - 1 = 0.200 points
The highest ranked country which lost a team already
Scotland had an uneven year last season, with 3 teams already eliminated before the group stage, but Rangers reaching the final of the EL

This season however Glasgow Rangers lost on the road to Union Saint-Gilloise (BEL) with 2-0, so there's a bit of work to do at Ibrox.
Yet, the cushion they have in the event losing could be a blessing in disguise, when they can duplicate the run of last year
While Motherwell lost in the conference league 2nd qualifying round against a beatable opponent Dundee United is alive and kicking.
They won against a higher ranked opponent (AZ of the Netherlands) If they cling on they would get a great opportunity to get a 3rd team in the group stage

9.Austria: 0 - 1 - 2 - 0 = 0.100 points
A bad week from the Austrians, just earning half a point with three games

Sturm Graz returned home with smallest defeat possible (only if you see it in absolute numbers) against a Dynamo Kiev (UKR)
So on paper a good position for the return, just score (at least) 1 more time than the Ukrainians to reach at least the extra time part.
Rapid Wien losing to Neftchi Baku with 2-1, but if they host the Azerbaijani side next week, repairing the damage wouldn't be a mountain to climb. (--> although, in Austria)
Wolfsberger AC had a disappointed draw against Gzira United from Malta

10. Belgium: 3 - 0 - 0 - 0 = 0.600 points
After a disappointing year, they start on 10th and will probably score more points compared to last season.
At least they're obligated to do so if they want to remain among to 10 best countries

This round they came out guns blasting with 3 wins in 3 games, two of them away
Debut team Union Saint-Gilloise surprised Glasgow Rangers with 2-0.
Royal Antwerp suppressed a potential surprise from Lillestrøm SK (NOR) with a 1-3 victory,
while RSC Anderlecht played with minimum input to get maximum outcome against Paide Linnameeskond (EST) 0-2

11. Serbia: 1 - 0 - 2 - 1 = 0.250 points
Can Serbia look up? Or do they have to look behind. Everything depends on the number of teams reaching the GS

Red Star demolished Pyunik Yerevan (ARM) and will have no problem reaching the playoffs
Partizan Belgrade surprising loss against AEK Larnaca (CYP) could leave a nasty taste if for some reason they will bottle it up the next weeks
The last remaining side saw a foreseeable loss against Dutch side FC Twente (NED) Sadly this will give Cukaricki Belgrade little hope to survive this round
The fourth team Radnicki Nis stumbled at the first hurdle against low flyers Gzira United (MLT) in ECLQ2. Maybe they fly higher than expected…...

The fear of dropping out group (place 12-15)

The gap between this group and the group above isn't big. But the same goes for the group behind them.
Stay in this group and you have at least 2 teams starting in CLQR

12. Russia: expelled from competition.
Nothing much to ad without triggering political discussions.
(One personal note) The distribution of points is highly questionable/ arbitrary. No solution will be satisfactory for all.
But as long as Russian teams are excluded from participating the discussion becomes redundant

13. Norway: 3 - 0 - 1 - 0 = 0.750 points
Has Norway ever been this high on the ranking?
The answer: yes. They even reached 10th place in 1998. But this is a new millennia, so new ball game.

Last season the foundation was laid (17 wins, 7 draws and 8 defeats, and from the latter 7 of them were in QR) could they start to cement it?
Maybe, this year they're already have a 10-1-3 stat

Bodø/Glimt will cruise to the CLPO with a 5-0 victory in the bag against Zalgiris Vilnius (LIT)
"With Viking Stavanger (5-1 victory) against Sligo Rovers (IRL) and Molde FK (3-0) against Kisvárda FC (HUN) adding to the party joy."
Only Lillestrøm SK was a dissonant, though there is no shame losing against a higher ranked team from Belgium, Royal Antwerp.

14. Ukraine: 2 - 0 - 0 - 1 = 0.400 points
What to say about Ukraine…..it could be disastrous, just like the situation in their homeland (with, I must add, far larger problems than a ranking battle) But sticking to football.

Will the narrow win of Dynamo Kiev against Sturm Graz be enough to setup a clash against Benfica in the play off round? Or is it better to play a level lower with more opportunities to win points…
Zorya Luhansk won with the same score as Dynamo Kiev against Universitatea Craiova (ROM) but they have no safety net like them.
This could be the pivotal game for Ukraine to have some breathing space to hang on in the top 15, after they lost Vorskla Poltava in the previous round.

15. Switzerland: 2 - 0 - 2 - 0 = 0.500 points
Switzerland is living on the edge, with no contestant in CL anymore. They need 3 teams in the group stages to avoid a nail biting season.

After FC Zurich lost in the CLQ2 against Qarabag FK (AZB), they'll defend a 2-0 lead against Linfield Belfast (NIR) at home to secure at least a group stage
The other win is credited to Young Boys, which also noted an away 2-0 victory against Finnish opponents KuPS Kuopio
The 1-0 loss to Brondby gives FC Basel no room for error. They will have step up their game, because the Danes are no pushovers.
FC Lugano, mmm…. the expectations I had and the final result couldn't be further apart. I really had pencilled in a (small) win. So all credit to Hapoel Beer-Sheva (ISR) to make me feel humble with their 2-0 away win.
This is probably game over for the Swiss.

The pursuers of happiness: (place 16-29)

These nations have all their non champions teams starting in 2nd qualification round or higher (except the 3rd placed team of the nation ranked 29th) thus avoiding 1 hurdle on the way to Walhalla.

16. Greece: 0 - 1 - 2 - 1 = 0.125 points
The Greek picked the worst time to have an off -season start in Europe. Maybe they swapped places with Turkey regarding summer form? I don't know. Could they salvage a horrible start? We will see.

After a disastrous beginning (AND PAOK Thessaloniki losing the 2nd QR with the latter even eliminated) they are looking like lemmings running towards a cliff.
Olympiakos Piraeus draw at home against Slovan Bratislava (SVK) which implicates a storm on the horizon.
Furthermore Aris Thessaloniki (a 2-0 loss against Maccabi Tel-Aviv (ISR)) and Panathinaikos with the same deficit score against Slavia Praha (CZE)
couldn't compensate. If they don't step up, it will be a lost season which will hunt them for years.

17. Czech Republic: 2 - 0 - 1 - 1 = 0.500 points
It looks like they score an average this season.

Viktoria Plzen is cruising to the play-offs with their 1-2 away win against Sheriff Tiraspol (MOL)
The republic need it because 1.FC Slovácko have to repair a 3-0 loss against Fenerbahçe (TUR) And Sparta Praha was already eliminated.
"Their flagship Slavia could be their saviour, with their 2-0 win against Panathinaikos (GRE)"

18. Denmark: 2 - 0 - 1 - 0 = 0.400 points
The Nordic countries seems on the rise, and Denmark could be the hammerhead.

Although FC Midtjylland lost heavily against Benfica, their backup is the (EL)GS
And this is a life line for two other Danish clubs too, which haven't played even, FC København & Silkeborg IF.
In the conference league Viborg FF won easily against B36 Torshavn (FAR) and Brøndby IF took on FC Basel (SUI), gaining the edge on them.
One of those 2 countries while have a sigh of relief if they eliminate the other


19. Croatia: 2 - 0 - 0 - 2 = 0.500 points
Would Dinamo Zagreb be (again) the only team in a group stage?
The dependency on them gives Croatia a though task and Zagreb a high (pressured) responsibility

Dinamo Zagreb is just 1 match away from the group stages, and with their away win against Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL)
this sure looks bright.
Hajduk Split is the only other team still in the competition, and they do what they can. The 3-1 win against Vitória Guimarães (POR) gives them a nice head start.
NK Osijek and NK Rijeka didn't survive the previous round and were eliminated.

20. Turkey: 2 - 1 - 0 - 0 = 0.500 points
Has Turkey finally have a season with some light at the horizon after 'the dark ages?' It sure looks like it.
Although it's likely they won't be presented in the CL after the qualification rounds, (which is, browsing at Turkey's stats in the group stages recently, maybe a blessing in disguise) it sure looks like their full contingent will reach QR4.
And to emphasize this feat, Galatasaray and Besiktas, regulars in Europe, didn't even qualified.

"Two wins, Fenerbahçe - 1.FC Slovácko (CZE) 3-0, and Breidablik (ISL) - Istanbul Basaksehir 1-3, plus an away draw (FC Vaduz (LIE) - Konyaspor 1-1) gives them a good starting position with the other 2 teams yet to begin their campaign. If they proceed, two of them will likely see Austrian opposition.

21. Israel: 3 - 0 - 0 - 1 = 0.750 points
Are they not only in the wake of Turkey ranking wise, but result as well?
Even with an eliminated team already the stats from the other 3 are impressive so far with 4-2-0.
All 3 teams likely to progress to the next round

Maccabi Haifa is taking out Greek speaking opposition one by one. The return game against Apollon Limassol (CYP) looks like a formality
Maccabi Tel-Aviv is demolishing a Greek based (speaking) team too, although a 2-0 head start isn't so comfortable as Haifa has.
Hapoel Beer-Sheva had a bit of luck against FC Lugano (SUI), but with no luck none will get by.
If they hold their nerve in the home game, the 2-0 head start should be enough to win a spot in the next round

22. Cyprus: 2 - 0 - 0 - 1 = 0.500 points
It's a rocky boat there sitting in. Two teams starting in CL, almost certain both will drop(ped) down.
If they want to punch holes they should getting a 3rd team in the group stages

AEK Larnaca have to defend a 2-1 lead against Partizan (SRB) in Belgrade, a tricky task.
The same goes for APOEL Nicosia (1-0) against FK Kyzylzhar (KAZ) from Kazakhstan.
I don't know much about the Kazakhstan team, but APOEL is obligated to their status to win this.
Omonia Nicosia (not started yet) and Aris Limassol (already eliminated) takes Cypriot list to 4

23. Sweden: 2 - 1 - 0 - 1 = 0.625 points
The start of Sweden wasn't their best, far from it, with Malmo surprisingly exiting from CL and IF Elfsborg already eliminated.
This 3rd QR gave a big improvement, but not convincingly for all.

Malmö FF solid performance against (a very weak) F91 Dudelange (LUX) will probably get them in the group stage one way or another.
Djurgårdens IF followed suit with their 3-1 away win against Sepsi OSK (ROM) but AIK Stockholm had a disappointing draw against minnows Shkendija Tetovo (MAC) So still work to do for them.

24. Bulgaria: 1 - 0 - 2 - 1 = 0.250 points
Can they get a third season with 2 teams in the group stages? The way to it is a (very) bumpy road.
If they can overturn some results and have good play off rounds they might even put 3 teams in group stages. (not likely though)
The latter occurred only once before, the 05/06 season…..

Head and commander team Ludogorets Razgrad is more than a decade the main contributor for Bulgarian ranking.
And this could be true for this season too, although Dinamo Zagreb (CRO) put a dent in their ship by winning at Ludogorets. Still, the group stage is guaranteed.
CSKA Sofia suffered a surprise defeat (0-1) against St. Patrick's Athletic (IRL) while Levski Sofia's away win (0-1) should be followed with a second victory at home against low ranked Hamrun Spartans (MLT)
Botev Plovdiv was eliminated in the previous round

25. Hungary: 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 = 0.375 points
The feeling of Hungary is one of a (very slowly) crawling out of the swamp they've got themselves into from the late seventies, early eighties.
Is this dwelling in the twilight with stable results from Ferencváros finally over?
Probably another team racking up some points is needed to be sure.

Until now Ferencváros could repair the damage done in the first game with excellent scores in the return game. Would that be the case also with their 1-1 draw away against Qarabag FK (AZB)?
FC Fehérvár will have no problem reaching the next round (a 5-0 win against Petrocub Hîncesti from Moldova) but Kisvárda FC is already standing by the exit door due to their 3-0 loss against Molde FK (NOR)
joining fellow country team Puskás Akadémia (eliminated in QR2)

26. Slovakia: 0 - 1 - 2 - 1 = 0.125 points
Could Slovakia end up with no teams in group stages?
With a team already eliminated and 2 teams with home losses they're with their back against the wall.

Is Slovan Bratislava the only team getting lucky? With an away draw against a astonishing weak Olympiakos Piraeus (GRE) they have all cards still to play for.
The teams lost in the (Conference League) woods Spartak Trnava and DAC Dunajska Streda probably will never find a way out. The wins of Raków Czestochowa (POL) and FCSB (ROM) in Slovakia surely looks like it's game over.

27. Romania: 1 - 1 - 2 - 0 = 0.375 points
The lowest ranked country still in green (bar Liechtenstein) started poorly in the CL. All teams thus playing in the Conference League.
Would they stay in green. This round dark clouds are forming above their heads, and shelter is limited, so we'll see what's the damage
End result could be as far apart as 4 in or out, but probably will end in the middle

Brightest future ahead is for FCSB (ROM) snatching an 1-0 away win against Spartak Trnava (SVK)
Adding the draw CFR Cluj had against Belarusian team Shakhtior Saligorsk won't compensate the losses of Sepsi OSK (1-3) against Djurgårdens IF (SWE) and Universitatea Craiova against Zorya Luhansk (1-0)

28. Poland: 1 - 0 - 1 - 1 = 0.250 points
Poland, notorious to get decent results (though eliminated still) against heavy weights and bottling against equal or lower ranked teams.
If they could flip these results, then drawing big opponents will be avoided, at least until the latter stages of the QR's or even only in the groups.

This season spearheads are teams Lech Poznan and Raków Czestochowa
With Lech dropping into the conference league after their elimination from CL through the hands of Qarabag, they make it themselves not easy with a 1-0 loss away against beatable opponent, Vikingur Reykjavik (ISL)
An rectification is in order to set up a clash against Swedish side Malmö (probably)
Raków Czestochowa have a 0-2 lead against Spartak Trnava (SVK) and with holding on, they get a PO round clash against an GS regular (Slavia Praha) or an big team from early days, Panathinaikos.
The other teams are already out of Europe.

29. Azerbaijan: 1 - 1 - 0 - 2 = 0.375 points
Azerbaijan already reduced to a two teams country will have (again) at least 1 team in the group stages.

Qarabag FK didn't have the greatest result against Ferencváros (HUN) with a home draw, but like I said, will land in a group stage nonetheless.
Neftchi Baku will defend a 2-1 lead in Austria against Rapid Wien, this could go either way.

Getting in, or dropping out: (place 30 - 50)

These are all about lifting your level to start in QR2 of the Conference league starting a round and avoiding to be dropping into the 3 team void
Further I have nothing much to say.

30. Slovenia: 0 - 0 - 1 - 3 = 0.000 points
They have only 1 trump card left. Can they play it on the right time?

"NK Maribor, already dropped out CL, is facing an uphill battle, with their 0-2 home loss against HJK Helsinki (FIN) "
Their potential playoff opponents, although not de creme de la creme, could be their end station, thus ending Slovenian season before group stages

31. Kazakhstan: 0 - 0 - 2 - 2 = 0.000 points
Are they even reach the group stages….
With two teams left it sure doesn't looks like it

Both remaining teams playing in the lowest tier, and both teams lost 1-0 away
Could they retake the upper hand at home?
FK Kyzylzhar vs. APOEL Nicosia (CYP) and Tobol Kustanai vs. Zrinjski Mostar (BIH) just have to score 2 goals more in the return.

32. Moldova: 0 - 0 - 2 - 2 = 0.000 points
1 team for sure in the group stage, but it looks like that's it.

Sheriff Tiraspol probably will drop to El or even ECL group stage (home loss against Czech Viktoria Plzen) being the only representative of Moldova
After only other club Petrocub Hîncesti got a 5-0 thrashing from FC Fehérvár (HUN)

33. Belarus: 0 - 1 - 0 - 3 = 0.125 points
The downfall looks like accelerating. This could be a drop into the deepest pit present

Only Champion Shakhtior Saligorsk (0-0) vs. CFR Cluj (ROM) presented. And without a safety net they would be already be eliminated.
(Only Dinamo Minsk survived 1 round, still got eliminated in round 2)

34. Kosovo: 1 - 0 - 0 - 3 = 0.250 points
Punching above their weight, I think they could reach the group stage (their sole surviving team)

With only FC Ballkani left, they will defend a 3-2 win, although their sloppy last minutes in their home game( giving 2 goals away) doesn't sound too trustworthy. Even with an adversary from the Faraoer Islands - KI Klaksvik

35. Latvia: 0 - 2 - 0 - 2 = 0.250 points
Taking advantage of a third cup? Probably, still results are achieved on the pitch. So with their 2 remaining teams they've a slim chances to get al the way.

The draw Riga FC vs Gil Vicente of Portugal is a great achievement already. The flip side is the same result RFS Riga got against Hibernians FC of Malta. A lot of work to do.

36. Finland: 1 - 0 - 1 - 2 = 0.250 points
Another country profited from the expansion to 3 cups. Not because they keep cumulating a shipload of points, rather than getting in the group stage at all.

"HJK Helsinki all but secured another group stage appearance with a 0-2 win against NK Maribor (SVN) in the ELQ3 first leg."
The other remaining team KuPS Kuopio got busted at home through the hands of Young Boys (SUI) and will likely not recover.

37. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1 - 0 - 0 - 3 = 0.250 points
Another 1 trump card country, another long shot to reach beyond the playoffs

With trembling legs travelling to Tobol Kustanai (KAZ) to defend a 1-0 lead, for Zrinjski Mostar it will probably their last achievement. It looks like the playoffs will be their end station anyway.

38. Ireland: 2 - 0 - 1 - 1 = 0.500 points
The Emerald Isle has a resurgent in getting results (did they ever?)

After this matchday 2 teams are in prime position to get to the next round.
"Shamrock Rovers had a clear cut victory against FK Shkupi (MAC) and shouldn't have any problem to defend their 3-1 lead,"
while CSKA Sofia (BUL) was set on the backburner by a loss on their own ground at the hands of St. Patrick's Athletic. (Sure a 1-0 leads is slim, but the away win counts for something, right?)
Alas Sligo Rovers devastating result in Norway against Viking Stavanger will give them no backup or hope. A victory would be nice though.

39. Lithuania: 0 - 0 - 1 - 3 = 0.000 points
It's like I'm repeating myself, but another country with a team decent enough to survive a couple of rounds, with no backup otherwise

First they exceeded themselves by kicking Malmo out of the CL. Now they brought back to earth at the hands of Bodø/Glimt (NOR)
So ELGS or ECLGS will be their landing strip.

Now we reach the lower part of this large group. Most countries will looking down in stead off up, fearing the drop further.

40. Luxembourg: 0 - 0 - 1 - 3 = 0.000 points
This season all seems to go wrong. Let's see if they can salvage something

F91 Dudelange 3-0 loss against a very weak Malmö FF (SWE) is a clear sign it's not a bed of roses for Luxembourg.
Hopefully they can turn it around, probably in the PO of ECL.

41. Armenia: 0 - 0 - 1 - 3 = 0.000 points
See previous, 1 club takes the world on their shoulders.

Again a team which get thrashed in 3rd round first leg after 2 rounds surviving.
"This time it's a 5-0 defeat for Pyunik Yerevan on the road to Red Star Belgrade(SRB) "
GS guaranteed though.

42. Faroe Islands: 0 - 0 - 2 - 2 = 0.000 points
Credit where credit is due, for such a small nation 2 teams in the 3rd round is a great achievement. Something in the air, maybe.

Will their great run end in the 3rd round?
"B36 Torshavn looks like running out of steam with a 3-0 away loss in Denmark (vs. Viborg FF)"
Losing KI Klaksvik at the hands of FC Ballkani (KOS) means the same, e.g. zero points. But It's clear their disadvantage is surmountable when they welcome the Kosovars at their home soil.

43. Northern Ireland: 0 - 0 - 1 - 3 = 0.000 points
it was a great season, but after this round it's over….
Wait..what? We get another shot at fame (reaching the group stage)

With their sole participant still alive, they probably drop down to the ECL PO to have another shot at it
Linfield Belfast should pull off a miracle in and against FC Zürich to pull through.

44. Georgia (4 teams)
The highest ranked country completely eliminated

45. Malta: 0 - 2 - 1 - 1 = 0.250 points
The pushovers of the past are pushing back. With 3 teams still in competition the day comes nearer a team from Malta reach paradise…..the group stage
could this season be THE season?

This round, with 2 away draws and 1 home loss lets the door ajar for getting in the PO, but maybe it stays with peeking round the corner.
First the two draws, Wolfsberger AC (AUT) - Gzira United and RFS Riga (LAT) - Hibernians FC. Great chance for them to see a positive result in the return.
Hamrun Spartans 1-0 loss at home against Levski Sofia (BUL) probably means game over. But don't count one's chickens before they are hatched.

46. Estonia: 0 - 0 - 1 - 2 = 0.000 points
A home defeat is probably the beginning of the end.

Paide Linnameeskond lost against a Belgian Anderlecht, Not much hope to continue.

47. Iceland: 1 - 0 - 1 - 1 = 0.333 points
Losing a team per round, that's not how to make it to the group stage.

Both teams still active, two very different outcomes.
Breidablik vs Istanbul Basaksehir (TUR) a 1-3 loss . Exit is most likely.
Vikingur Reykjavik vs Lech Poznan (POL) gave them home team a 1-0 win and a little breathing space for the Icelandic side.

48. Liechtenstein: 0 - 1 - 0 - 0 = 0.500 points
Only cup winner participate, and they're slipping down. In their case it doesn't matter with just 1 team.

FC Vaduz - Konyaspor (TUR) 1-1. Nothing more to add.

49 . Albania (4 teams) No longer active.

50. Wales (3 teams) No longer active.

The bear pit, or the abyss (place 51 - 55)

To avoid at all cost, sadly some has to end up below this line.

51. Gibraltar (4 teams) No longer active.

52. North Macedonia: 0 - 1 - 1 - 2 = 0.125 points
With two teams still in contention, could they claw their way out the bottom 5?

Irish side Shamrock Rovers doesn't blink an eye, winning 3-1 against FK Shkupi, so it looks like the North Macedonian side will continue in the conference league
" AIK Stockholm (SWE) losing their ground somewhat. On the other hand Shkendija Tetovo is pleased with the 1-1 draw in the Nordic country. Could they put the icing on the cake at home?"

53. Andorra (3 teams) No longer active.

54. Montenegro (4 teams) No longer active.

55. San Marino (3 teams) No longer active.

Great post!

[Bulgarian]

Dont set up Hajduk to fail "Osijek" style.I`d like to see them against Villareal.And the second match will be in Split for which if there is any hope Hajduks fans will give the spanish team hell.

[wannabeontop]

FCSB are playing against Dunaszerdahely ('Dunajska Streda'), not Nagyszombat (Trnava).

[Agent327]

FCSB are playing against Dunaszerdahely ('Dunajska Streda'), not Nagyszombat (Trnava).

That's right, something swapped when copied, is adjusted.

Thanks

[SimonB]

Already said above but I will repeat it, a great post describing the battles.

I particularly liked your descriptions of the various bands in the coefficient table, very inventive.