CLGS matchday 6

[Eyal]

Updated xG information including round CL round 6.

Best G-xG:
Paris (8.
Benfica (6.2)
Liverpool (5.
Bayern (5.5)
Shakhtar (4.5)
Sporting (4.5)

Worst G-xG:
Leverkusen (-5)
Atlético (-4.5)
Celtic (-4.5)
Copenhagen (-3.4)
Salzburg (-2.6)


Best GA-xGA:
Club Brugge (-6.9)
Bayern (-4)
Porto (-2.6)
Napoli (-2.4)
Dortmund (-2.1)

Worst GA-xGA:
Maccabi Haifa (12.3)
Plzen (9.3)
Rangers (8.5)
Ajax (4.6)
Celtic (4.1)

Interesting one, thanks. What's the source of such data? Where can I get it?

[Dragonite]

The source is goalpoint.

[Bulgarian]

Updated xG information including round CL round 6.

Best G-xG:
Paris (8.
Benfica (6.2)
Liverpool (5.
Bayern (5.5)
Shakhtar (4.5)
Sporting (4.5)

Worst G-xG:
Leverkusen (-5)
Atlético (-4.5)
Celtic (-4.5)
Copenhagen (-3.4)
Salzburg (-2.6)


Best GA-xGA:
Club Brugge (-6.9)
Bayern (-4)
Porto (-2.6)
Napoli (-2.4)
Dortmund (-2.1)

Worst GA-xGA:
Maccabi Haifa (12.3)
Plzen (9.3)
Rangers (8.5)
Ajax (4.6)
Celtic (4.1)

I am not the biggest of fans of this whole xG stuff but it was an interesting read

[SimonB]

I see that it is in image format.

Just a suggestion here, If it was in spreadsheet format, we could add an extra column for elo for example and sort by that column to see any trends more clearly between team strength and difference in XG.

[Firnen]

Celtic managed to underperform their xG by 4.5 and underperform their xGA against too by 4.1

Impressive lack of efficiency in both offense and defense.

[max tre]

R16 draw: probability matrix (I processed a Monte-Carlo simulation)

Code: Select all

         RUNNER-UP   LIV BRU INT FRA ACM LPZ DTM PSG
WINNER               ENG BEL ITA GER ITA GER GER FRA
NAPOLI    ITA         -  18%  -  22%  -  19% 23% 18%
PORTO     POR        20%  -  15% 17% 13% 12% 13% 10%
BAYERN    GER        39% 18%  -   -  23%  -   -  20%
TOTTENHAM ENG         -  15% 19%  -  19% 18% 17% 11%
CHELSEA   ENG         -  13% 16% 18%  -  21% 18% 13%
R.MADRID  ESP        20% 11% 14% 12% 14%  -  13% 15%
MAN.CITY  ENG         -  15% 20% 19% 19% 15%  -  11%
BENFICA   POR        21% 10% 15% 13% 11% 14% 15%  -

Probably Inter and Milan have to play R16 in different weeks, because they share the same stadium and they play both the first leg at home - it's better not playing two matches in 24 hours on the same pitch.
I didn't tale into account this constraint in my simulation, because it was too difficult. Furthermore I am not sure that it impacts significantly the probability matrix.

It doesn't at all. UEFA schedules the matches after the draw, just avoiding these teams from playing in the same week. Btw, I guess the same goes for Tottenham and Chelsea - the only two London teams.

[fabiomh]

R16 draw: probability matrix (I processed a Monte-Carlo simulation)

Code: Select all

         RUNNER-UP   LIV BRU INT FRA ACM LPZ DTM PSG
WINNER               ENG BEL ITA GER ITA GER GER FRA
NAPOLI    ITA         -  18%  -  22%  -  19% 23% 18%
PORTO     POR        20%  -  15% 17% 13% 12% 13% 10%
BAYERN    GER        39% 18%  -   -  23%  -   -  20%
TOTTENHAM ENG         -  15% 19%  -  19% 18% 17% 11%
CHELSEA   ENG         -  13% 16% 18%  -  21% 18% 13%
R.MADRID  ESP        20% 11% 14% 12% 14%  -  13% 15%
MAN.CITY  ENG         -  15% 20% 19% 19% 15%  -  11%
BENFICA   POR        21% 10% 15% 13% 11% 14% 15%  -

Probably Inter and Milan have to play R16 in different weeks, because they share the same stadium and they play both the first leg at home - it's better not playing two matches in 24 hours on the same pitch.
I didn't tale into account this constraint in my simulation, because it was too difficult. Furthermore I am not sure that it impacts significantly the probability matrix.

It doesn't at all. UEFA schedules the matches after the draw, just avoiding these teams from playing in the same week. Btw, I guess the same goes for Tottenham and Chelsea - the only two London teams.

Perfect. I didn't know. Thanks

[Avalon]

How many teams qualified to next round with negative goal difference like Frankfurt? Was there ever a group winner with negative gd? (Frankfurt nearly did it when Tottenham scored in 90th)

[ngfsmg]

How many teams qualified to next round with negative goal difference like Frankfurt? Was there ever a group winner with negative gd? (Frankfurt nearly did it when Tottenham scored in 90th)

There was a group in 2000/01 in which Galatasaray and Sturm qualified and both had a negative goal difference, and Rangers and Mónaco were eliminated while having a positive goal difference. Someone posted it here in the forum a couple of years ago

[Dragonite]

Werner will miss the World Cup.

[Overgame]

How many teams qualified to next round with negative goal difference like Frankfurt? Was there ever a group winner with negative gd? (Frankfurt nearly did it when Tottenham scored in 90th)

There was a group in 2000/01 in which Galatasaray and Sturm qualified and both had a negative goal difference, and Rangers and Mónaco were eliminated while having a positive goal difference. Someone posted it here in the forum a couple of years ago

I remember Anderlecht doing so, around the same time.
Group with United, Kiev and PSV
4-0 and 4-1 losses
1-0 (PSV) 2-1 (United, or was it 1-0?) 4-2 (Kiev) and 2-3 (PSV) wins
(If I remember everything correctly).