Dniprovec wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 22:42
Simulation based on Elo ratings following WC for Euro 2024 qualification, 20 000 runs.
Malta, Andorra, San Marino and Lichtenstein aren't making the table as they are less than 1 in 20 000 chance to qualify, 0 chance of making it into play-offs.
Did you add 100 points for the home team in each match? Also did you implement all the PO rules?
I just find it weird that Israel gets only about 20% of winning the playoff if they play it, since they are guaranteed to be first seed.
I've had Home Field Advantage at +50 Elo.
I think I did implement all of them. In case of Israel: it can play only in League B Path; its first game is always at home; it plays the lowest seeded team of League B path (among the teams that weren't drawn to fill in for missing teams from League A Path).
The problem of Israel is their Elo is still lower than half of their likely potential opposition, namely Ukraine and Norway, even with the their HFA. They are also about equal with likes of Finland, Slovenia and Ireland, being clear favorite only against Iceland. All in all, Israel has 48% chance to advance to the play-off final and only 36% chance to win the final, hence their low chances.
Dniprovec wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 22:42
Simulation based on Elo ratings following WC for Euro 2024 qualification, 20 000 runs.
Malta, Andorra, San Marino and Lichtenstein aren't making the table as they are less than 1 in 20 000 chance to qualify, 0 chance of making it into play-offs.
Did you add 100 points for the home team in each match? Also did you implement all the PO rules?
I just find it weird that Israel gets only about 20% of winning the playoff if they play it, since they are guaranteed to be first seed.
I've had Home Field Advantage at +50 Elo.
I think I did implement all of them. In case of Israel: it can play only in League B Path; its first game is always at home; it plays the lowest seeded team of League B path (among the teams that weren't drawn to fill in for missing teams from League A Path).
The problem of Israel is their Elo is still lower than half of their likely potential opposition, namely Ukraine and Norway, even with the their HFA. They are also about equal with likes of Finland, Slovenia and Ireland, being clear favorite only against Iceland. All in all, Israel has 48% chance to advance to the play-off final and only 36% chance to win the final, hence their low chances.
OK, yeah, the 50 points instead of 100 (which is what the Elo rankings are calibrated for, since this is the actual value being used in the calculations of the rankings) can make a difference. Using 100 would give Israel about 10% more for the semi finals and about 5% more for the final.
The biggest favorites are Denmark, Portugal and Switzerland for the simple reason that they have the weakest three groups. All competitive national teams outside the FIFA Top 50 are there and there will be a fierce battle for second place leading to the European Championship. Inconvenient groups for holders can be C (ITA.ENG,UKR) and F (BEL,AUT,SWE).
Did you add 100 points for the home team in each match? Also did you implement all the PO rules?
I just find it weird that Israel gets only about 20% of winning the playoff if they play it, since they are guaranteed to be first seed.
I've had Home Field Advantage at +50 Elo.
I think I did implement all of them. In case of Israel: it can play only in League B Path; its first game is always at home; it plays the lowest seeded team of League B path (among the teams that weren't drawn to fill in for missing teams from League A Path).
The problem of Israel is their Elo is still lower than half of their likely potential opposition, namely Ukraine and Norway, even with the their HFA. They are also about equal with likes of Finland, Slovenia and Ireland, being clear favorite only against Iceland. All in all, Israel has 48% chance to advance to the play-off final and only 36% chance to win the final, hence their low chances.
OK, yeah, the 50 points instead of 100 (which is what the Elo rankings are calibrated for, since this is the actual value being used in the calculations of the rankings) can make a difference. Using 100 would give Israel about 10% more for the semi finals and about 5% more for the final.
After I've rerun the whole model with 100, Israel got +6% in SF and +2% in F, overall increase of little more than 3% in PO stage.
In general there has been a little impact here: biggest drop to qualify was -2% for Ukraine and biggest increase was +2% for Georgia.
I've had Home Field Advantage at +50 Elo.
I think I did implement all of them. In case of Israel: it can play only in League B Path; its first game is always at home; it plays the lowest seeded team of League B path (among the teams that weren't drawn to fill in for missing teams from League A Path).
The problem of Israel is their Elo is still lower than half of their likely potential opposition, namely Ukraine and Norway, even with the their HFA. They are also about equal with likes of Finland, Slovenia and Ireland, being clear favorite only against Iceland. All in all, Israel has 48% chance to advance to the play-off final and only 36% chance to win the final, hence their low chances.
OK, yeah, the 50 points instead of 100 (which is what the Elo rankings are calibrated for, since this is the actual value being used in the calculations of the rankings) can make a difference. Using 100 would give Israel about 10% more for the semi finals and about 5% more for the final.
After I've rerun the whole model with 100, Israel got +6% in SF and +2% in F, overall increase of little more than 3% in PO stage.
In general there has been a little impact here: biggest drop to qualify was -2% for Ukraine and biggest increase was +2% for Georgia.
Czesław Michniewicz fired by PZPN. To be precise, his contract won't be extended.
Although he achieved all the goals (qualified for the World Cup, stayed in Nations League Division A and advanced from the group at the World Cup), this cooperation didn't make sense any longer. The atmosphere around the team is terrible despite the results. Michniewicz was in conflict with many people around, especially the players and the team manager. This looks pretty much like at all clubs where he used to work previously. PR and image of PZPN and the team are at the lowest level after a scandal connected with bonus money, which they were about to receive from the government. Many people would like to see the team playing in a more spectacular style and I have the impression that it became even more important than the results, since the latter didn't save Michniewicz after all.
So here we go again, main topic for Christmas will be new coach. Two years ago Jerzy Brzęczek was sacked after Christmas (not to spoil him the holiday) and last year Paulo Sousa decided to leave during Christmas which finally happened just before New Year's Eve. No idea who is a real candidate to take over now, but probably he will come from abroad.
I suppose that means that they have another manager prepared, and probably a foreign one.
I think it's a bad decision. They basically confirm in their statement that he did well. They say he managed to qualify Poland for the World Cup (in a difficult game against Sweden), he kept them in the top tier of the UEFA Nations League, and got out of the group at the World Cup for the first time since 1986. Why are they not extending his contract then? Because Poland didn't play 'attractive' football at the World Cup. It's true they didn't, but what would fans prefer, not qualifying from the group again with 'attractive' football or qualifying like we did. The only games Poland lost at the World Cup were against the eventual finalists.
I really hope the new coach isn't one of those candidates mentioned before. Ranieri has only one great achievement in his long career. In general he isn't a great coach. Shevchenko, no thanks. Roberto Martinez did worse with the Belgium team at this World Cup than Michniewicz did with Poland.
I think that Vladimir Petković would be best possible candidate. He is currently free, in our financial range and has an experience in working with sub-top national team (Switzerland). He made the Swiss NT competitive against big names and always progressed from the Group Stage at major tournaments (EURO 2016, WC 2018, EURO 2020).
Michael S Collins wrote: ↑Wed Jan 18, 2023 21:52
Why? Are they fed up with success?
Would you call a WC Round of 16, a WC QF and a Euro R16 a success? I wouldn't.
Yes they won Euro 2016 but that was a fluke, Wales should have won. If they'd have had that group score 4 years earlier they'd have been out in GS they only got in as 3rd best 3rd.
He had success at Belgium with the golden generation. As I see it a manager can only achieve success with a team of champions - nil satis nisi optimum.
According to tvp.sport.pl, Paulo Bento will be the new Poland NT coach. Still, nothing official yet, documents are not signed and, having in mind last elections when Polish media were "100% sure" that it will be Nawałka and at the end Michniewicz got the job, we have to wait for official confirmation. Kulesza, head of PZPN, said on Monday that he already knows who will be the new manager and today one of former Bento's assistant confirmed it will be Bento. We will see in a few days.
Greyn wrote: ↑Thu Jan 19, 2023 15:23
According to tvp.sport.pl, Paulo Bento will be the new Poland NT coach. Still, nothing official yet, documents are not signed and, having in mind last elections when Polish media were "100% sure" that it will be Nawałka and at the end Michniewicz got the job, we have to wait for official confirmation. Kulesza, head of PZPN, said on Monday that he already knows who will be the new manager and today one of former Bento's assistant confirmed it will be Bento. We will see in a few days.
We will know the new coach tomorrow at 13:00 CET, when the official presentation will take place at the National Stadium in Warsaw.
Przegląd Sportowy, the oldest Polish sports daily, claims that negotiations between PZPN and Paulo Bento ended up with a failure. They claim that the new Poland NT manager will be Vladimir Petković or Fernando Santos. To sum up - we still don't know and have to wait till tomorrow. Well done, Mr. Kulesza. Once again he played a game with journalists and foxed them.
I would prefer Petkovic to Bento to be honest. Really don't think Bento has done all that much in his coaching career, while Petkovic turned Switzerland into a very solid team, with the culmination being a fantastic performance at the last Euros.
They claim that the new Poland NT manager will be Vladimir Petković or Fernando Santos. To sum up - we still don't know and have to wait till tomorrow. Well done, Mr. Kulesza. Once again he played a game with journalists and foxed them.