CONMEBOL Nations Ecosystem Ranking

[Kamtedrejt]

Here we go. That's my ecosystem ranking for CONMEBOL using the same exact model I used for the AFC.


Nation_____________________Score


1. Argentina___________9.15
NT Form___________________10
Youth______________________6.5
Pedigree___________________10
Club success_______________8.5

2. Brazil_______________9.15
NT Form___________________9.5
Youth______________________7.5
Pedigree___________________9.5
Club success_______________10

3. Uruguay_____________6.90
NT Form___________________6.5
Youth______________________10
Pedigree___________________6.5
Club success_______________3.5

4. Colombia____________6.25
NT Form___________________6.5
Youth______________________7.0
Pedigree___________________5.5
Club success_______________5.0

5. Ecuador_____________5.15
NT Form___________________5.5
Youth______________________5.5
Pedigree___________________3.5
Club success_______________6.0

6. Peru________________5.00
NT Form___________________7.0
Youth______________________2.0
Pedigree___________________5.0
Club success_______________1.0

7. Chile_______________4.80
NT Form___________________5.5
Youth______________________3.5
Pedigree___________________5.5
Club success_______________2.5

8. Paraguay____________4.75
NT Form___________________5.0
Youth______________________4.0
Pedigree___________________4.5
Club success_______________5.5

9. Venezuela___________3.55
NT Form___________________4.0
Youth______________________4.5
Pedigree___________________2.5
Club success_______________1.5

10. Bolivia_____________2.05
NT Form___________________2.5
Youth______________________1.5
Pedigree___________________1.0
Club success_______________3.0


Overview of the form of all teams since 2019 onward



_________________________WCQ_______World Cup_______Copa America______________Form

1. Argentina____________2nd________Champions_________Runners-up/Champions________10


2. Brazil_______________1st_________Quarterfinals_______Champions/Runners-up________9.5


3. Peru________________5th_________---------------________Runners-up/Fourth___________7.0


Record against teams with >1800 points in the ELO Ratings:

5 Wins
6 Draws
17 Losses

0.75 pts per game

Ø points of these opponents was 1965.11

Index______________________= 1474 (1965.11 x 0.75)

Score for this category__________4.5



4. Colombia_____________6th_________---------------________Quarterfinals/Bronze_________6.5


Record against teams with >1800 points in the ELO Ratings

7 Wins
10 Draws
5 Losses

1.41 pts per game

Ø points of these opponents was 1934.09

Index______________________= 2727 (1934.09 x 1.41)

Score for this category_________7.0




5. Uruguay_____________3rd_________Group Stage________2x Quarterfinals_____________6.5


Record against teams with >1800 points in the ELO Ratings

8 Wins
9 Draws
7 Losses

1.38 pts per game

Ø points of these opponents was 1911.96

Index________________________= 2639 (1911.96 x 1.38)

Score for this category___________7.0




6. Ecuador______________4th_________Group Stage________Group Stage/Quarterfinals____5.5


Record against teams with >1800 points in the ELO Ratings

6 Wins
8 Draws
10 Losses

1.08 pts per game

Ø points of these opponents was 1950.33

Index__________________________= 2106 (1950.33 x 1.08)

Score for this category_____________6.0




7. Chile_________________7th________----------------________Fourth/Quarterfinals_______5.5


Record against teams with >1800 points in the ELO Ratings

2 Wins
9 Draws
13 Losses

0.63 pts ger game

Ø points of these opponents was 1939.46

Index____________________________= 1222 (1939.46 x 0.63)

Score for this category________________4.0



8. Paraguay______________8th_________----------------_________2x Quarterfinals________5.0


Record against teams with >1800 points in the ELO Ratings

4 Wins
10 Draws
12 Losses

0.85 pts per game

Ø points of these opponents was 1915.65

Index_________________________= 1628 (1915.65 x 0.85)

Score for this category_____________5.0




9. Venezuela_____________10th________---------------______Quarterfinals/Group Stage______4.0


Record against teams with >1800 points in the ELO Ratings

3 Wins
5 Draws
14 Losses

0.64 pts per game

Ø points of these opponents was 1938.73

Index________________________= 1241 (1938.73 x 0.64)

Score for this category____________4.0



10. Bolivia_________________9th______---------------_________2x Group Stage______________2.5


Record against teams with >1800 points in the ELO Ratings

3 Wins
2 Draws
18 Losses

0.48 pts per game

Ø points of these opponents was 1915.78

Index_________________________= 920 (1915.78 x 0.48)

Score for this category____________3.0

[Kamtedrejt]

The top 4 nations of South American football are without a doubt Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Colombia. While before the 2022 World Cup most people would have put Brazil first it's now Argentina as reigning World Cup champions that has an extremely marginal edge over Brazil.

Uruguay is a pretty comfortable third. Colombia is fourth.

However it's not clear who the fifth best nation in CONMEBOL is. You can make as of now a case for any of Ecuador, Peru, Chile or Paraguay. Only slim margins separate these nations in my ranking.

Historically the fifth best nation is without a doubt Paraguay. Chile could be seen as fifth best side for all the achievements they had in the 2010s with winning two Copa America trophies. There is a case to make for Ecuador for being the fifth best nation as they are an upcoming side and based on my calculation method it's the home of the third best league in South America. Peru are only in the conversation for being the fifth best nation in South America due to the many deep runs they had at the Copa America in the last 15 years. But they are very poor in the categories "youth success" and "club success". The 2026 cycle will probably give us a better indication on who the fifth best nation in South America is.

Looking at the bottom Bolivia are by considerable margin the worst footballing nation in South America. The only metric where they are not the worst South American nation is "club success". Other than that they are sitting dead last in the remaining categories.

[Kamtedrejt]

Ranking by each category

NT Form________________________Youth________________________Club Success__________________Pedigree

1. ARG________10____________ URU_________10___________ BRA__________10___________ ARG__________10
2. BRA_________9.5___________ BRA_________7.5__________ ARG__________8.5__________ BRA___________9.5
3. PER_________7.0___________ COL_________7.0__________ ECU__________6.0__________ URU___________6.5
4. COL_________6.5___________ ARG_________6.5__________ PAR__________5.5__________ CHI____________5.5
5. URU_________6.5___________ ECU_________5.5__________ COL__________5.0__________ COL___________5.5
6. ECU_________5.5___________ VEN_________4.5__________ URU__________3.5__________ PER____________5.0
7. CHI_________5.5____________ PAR_________4.0__________ BOL__________3.0__________ PAR____________4.5
8. PAR_________5.0____________ CHI_________3.5__________ CHI___________2.5__________ ECU___________3.5
9. VEN_________4.0____________ PER_________2.0__________ VEN__________1.5__________ VEN___________2.5
10. BOL________2.5____________ BOL_________1.5__________ PER__________1.0__________ BOL___________1.0

[Kamtedrejt]

For those who have an account on "Bigsoccer" please follow this link and vote. Thank you.

https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/conme ... t-41341029

[Kamtedrejt]

I feel my ranking is a bit flawed. Probably I gave the Copa America too much weight. That's why Peru's form is rated 7.0 while Ecuador's is only 5.5.
However the latter quaified for the World Cup while the former didn't. If someone would ask me spontaneously how I'd rate Peru's form I wouldn't reply with 7.0.

Probably a long series of 18 matches in World Cup qualfying is more indicative of a nation's form than results at a short tournament like the Copa America where the factors bounce of the ball and the tournament draw play a much bigger role.

I might change my calculation format and revise these rankings.

[Kamtedrejt]

Here we go. That's my ecosystem ranking for CONMEBOL using the same exact model I used for the AFC.


Nation_____________________Score


1. Argentina___________9.15
NT Form___________________10
Youth______________________6.5
Pedigree___________________10
Club success_______________8.5

2. Brazil_______________9.15
NT Form___________________9.5
Youth______________________7.5
Pedigree___________________9.5
Club success_______________10

3. Uruguay_____________6.90
NT Form___________________6.5
Youth______________________10
Pedigree___________________6.5
Club success_______________3.5

4. Colombia____________6.25
NT Form___________________6.5
Youth______________________7.0
Pedigree___________________5.5
Club success_______________5.0

5. Ecuador_____________5.15
NT Form___________________5.5
Youth______________________5.5
Pedigree___________________3.5
Club success_______________6.0

Interestingly the results of CONMEBOL nations at the U20 World Cup reflect pretty accurately the scores I calculated for each of them for 'youth'. So, no nation overperformed nor did any underperform massively. Let's look at this:

Nation__________________Youth score_____Performance at the still ongoing U20 World Cup

Uruguay_______________10___________Finalists
Brazil_________________7.5__________Quarterfinalists
Colombia______________7.0__________Quarterfinalists
Argentina______________6.5__________Round of 16
Ecuador_______________5.5__________Round of 16

[Kamtedrejt]

My finalised CONMEBOL WCQ predictions will come by the end of this month. It will mark the start of the road to pick the 45 teams I see qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Exciting times ahead.