Battle for important ranking positions 2023-24

[babaluj1]

When we look at the champions of the countries from 26th to 30th place, these are quality clubs, most of which would certainly go at least to the Conference League, some to the EL, maybe Qarabag even to the CL. These clubs dominantly won domestic championships, Steaua (ROM) +12 over the follower, Ludogorez (BUL) +11, Slovan (SLK) +16, Qarabag (AZB) +22, only Ordabasy (KAZ) is not very dominant +5 points over Astana.
The leading clubs of the countries from 31st to 35th place are not so strong and dominant except for Celje (SLO) +12, they are Sheriff (MOL) +6, Balkani (KOS) +2, RFS Riga (LAT) +1 and Vaduz (LIE ) apparent CW. They could be sent to the pre-qualifications, and instead give 5 direct spots to clubs from the Top 5 strongest leagues in the qualification group using the Swiss system.
But then, to compensate all the champions in the joint qualifying group with the Swiss system, 2 bonus points should be given with the goal that at least ten of the best clubs from leagues 28-55. enters one of the UEFA leagues.
100 clubs divided into 5 strong groups of 20 clubs each, each club plays 4 matches with clubs outside its strong group, two at home, two away. With a good goal difference, 3 wins would be enough for the CL, 2 wins for the EL, 1 win for the Conference, and the champions could even enter the Conference with one draw and a good goal difference, that is, champions with 2 wins and one draw with a good goal the difference could enter to CL LS.

[Gorandinho]

With this Brugge draw I believe Belgium breaks their Coefficient record.

[dnina10]

With this Brugge draw I believe Belgium breaks their Coefficient record.

They have, yes, by 0.200 points

[fabiomh]

According to Opta the chances for top 2 are

1. Italy 91%
2. England 81.9%
3. Germany 22.1%%
4. France 3.1%
5. Czechia 1.1%
6. Spain 0.6%
7. Belgium 0.1%

I saw this estimation too.
I can agree for England chances, I think it will reach 1st position: ManCity, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa have many chances to reach the Finals.
The gap between Italy and Germany looks like too much in my opinion.
IMHO Germany have more chances to overtake Italy than estimated by OPTA.
All is depending on what will happen in the next round (R16), which will distribute almost 50% of the remaining points.

Italy have still 7/7, but very few Italian teams have chance to go forward and to collect many points.
Let us think about Lazio and Napoli first of all, which likely will collect 0 points in the CL R16 2nd leg and will be eliminated.
In EL Roma and Atalanta will meet strong opponents, likely one of them will be eliminated, but there is 25% probability they will be both eliminated.

On the other side German teams have Bayern and Leverkusen with very good chance to reach the Finals and collecting many points.

What I wrote on February about Germany opportunities was not so far from the reality.
Germany with almost 2 teams in final, and the third team - Bayern - was very close to the final until 88'.

The negative surprise is about the English teams' crash.

[babaluj1]

Opta is not realistic, they constantly exaggerated England's chances and underestimated Germany, and especially France. It was already seen in GS that English clubs are limping this season and have a lot of problems, despite that Opta favored them.
When we look at the 5 strongest leagues this season, it is evident that the top of the Bundesliga is the strongest this season, there are even 5 top clubs from the dominant Bayer, via Bayern, Stuttgart, Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund. In La Liga we have 4 top clubs, in addition to the dominant Real Madrid, there are Girona, Barcelona and Atletico. The Premiership has 3 top clubs Arsenal, City and Liverpool, and Italy and France have one each, Inter and PSG.
The strength of Serie A is in high quality and uniformity, Fiorentina, which is only ninth, has a better chance to win the EL next season by winning the ECL than through the domestic championship. It is similar with Roma and Atalanta, who are fifth and sixth in Serie A and are fighting for CL next season.

[TommyChat]

A win in regulation or overtime in the final by Olympiacos needed for Greece to overtake Denmark for 15th. A win after PSO is not enough!! There is real chance for something that were a real longshot after Panathinaikos and AEK were eliminated in GS and looked finished after the quarterfinals.

[bugylibicska]

A win in regulation or overtime in the final by Olympiacos needed for Greece to overtake Denmark for 15th. A win after PSO is not enough!! There is real chance for something that were a real longshot after Panathinaikos and AEK were eliminated in GS and looked finished after the quarterfinals.

Greece collected more points this season than 2 years together before. If PAOK could just help with a draw against Brugge or the others earlier...

[dnina10]

A win in regulation or overtime in the final by Olympiacos needed for Greece to overtake Denmark for 15th. A win after PSO is not enough!! There is real chance for something that were a real longshot after Panathinaikos and AEK were eliminated in GS and looked finished after the quarterfinals.

Greece collected more points this season than 2 years together before. If PAOK could just help with a draw against Brugge or the others earlier...

If Greece fails to finish 15th, the fault will ultimately lie on Panathinaikos. That loss on matchday 6 of the EL, worse to Maccabi Haifa, was just unforgivable

[babaluj1]

The Greek league is very strong this season, certainly the Greeks deserve the Top 15, according to this year's Coefficient ranking they are in the Top 10 of the strongest leagues.
We have to say that the Greeks had a very difficult draw in GS, otherwise they would have already been convincingly in the Top 15.

[eye]

A win in regulation or overtime in the final by Olympiacos needed for Greece to overtake Denmark for 15th. A win after PSO is not enough!! There is real chance for something that were a real longshot after Panathinaikos and AEK were eliminated in GS and looked finished after the quarterfinals.

Greece collected more points this season than 2 years together before. If PAOK could just help with a draw against Brugge or the others earlier...

If Greece fails to finish 15th, the fault will ultimately lie on Panathinaikos. That loss on matchday 6 of the EL, worse to Maccabi Haifa, was just unforgivable

When only 2 points are needed for top15 you can't blame just one club for one result. Greece could have easily taken those 2 points from rest clubs at many occasions they were supposed to get a better result eg Olympiakos at home match against Maccabi Tel Aviv, or at Serbia or PAOK at home match against Aberdeen or at home match against Beitar or Aris against the armenian club. Greek clubs faced 3 clubs from Israel and got better away result in every tie. Greece is also unlucky cause there was a big raise to the points that needed for #15 this season. Of course the number will rise every season since more points are awarded due to ECL points that didn't exist 5 years ago but this season the increase was about 2.500 while previous 2 seasons was less than 1.000

[Overgame]

According to Opta the chances for top 2 are

1. Italy 91%
2. England 81.9%
3. Germany 22.1%%
4. France 3.1%
5. Czechia 1.1%
6. Spain 0.6%
7. Belgium 0.1%

I saw this estimation too.
I can agree for England chances, I think it will reach 1st position: ManCity, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa have many chances to reach the Finals.
The gap between Italy and Germany looks like too much in my opinion.
IMHO Germany have more chances to overtake Italy than estimated by OPTA.
All is depending on what will happen in the next round (R16), which will distribute almost 50% of the remaining points.

Italy have still 7/7, but very few Italian teams have chance to go forward and to collect many points.
Let us think about Lazio and Napoli first of all, which likely will collect 0 points in the CL R16 2nd leg and will be eliminated.
In EL Roma and Atalanta will meet strong opponents, likely one of them will be eliminated, but there is 25% probability they will be both eliminated.

On the other side German teams have Bayern and Leverkusen with very good chance to reach the Finals and collecting many points.

What I wrote on February about Germany opportunities was not so far from the reality.
Germany with almost 2 teams in final, and the third team - Bayern - was very close to the final until 88'.

The negative surprise is about the English teams' crash.

But really far off for Italy.

End of February (when you wrote your reply) vs now:
Country February Now Teams Difference

Code: Select all

Italy 	15.571 20.714 2 5.143
Germany 14.500 19.357 2 4.857
England 13.875 17.375 0 3.500
Spain 	13.187 15.812 1 2.625
France 	13.250 16.250 0 3.000

[og2002gr]

Greece collected more points this season than 2 years together before. If PAOK could just help with a draw against Brugge or the others earlier...

If Greece fails to finish 15th, the fault will ultimately lie on Panathinaikos. That loss on matchday 6 of the EL, worse to Maccabi Haifa, was just unforgivable

When only 2 points are needed for top15 you can't blame just one club for one result. Greece could have easily taken those 2 points from rest clubs at many occasions they were supposed to get a better result eg Olympiakos at home match against Maccabi Tel Aviv, or at Serbia or PAOK at home match against Aberdeen or at home match against Beitar or Aris against the armenian club. Greek clubs faced 3 clubs from Israel and got better away result in every tie. Greece is also unlucky cause there was a big raise to the points that needed for #15 this season. Of course the number will rise every season since more points are awarded due to ECL points that didn't exist 5 years ago but this season the increase was about 2.500 while previous 2 seasons was less than 1.000

Very good point here.
For sure it was suicidal for Panathinaikos losing 3rd place. Not only because they had the advantage of two results and playing at home, but they were also better than Maccabi in this Group.
But what if Panathinaikos or/and AEK failed in CL qualifiers and ended up in ECL instead of EL Groups...Greece could be already in top13.
PAOK and Olympiacos managed an incredible point-farming in ECL just before UEFA changed it all. Panathinaikos and AEK, thanks to their draws, were doomed by their own success.

But enough with excuses. Olympiacos vs Aston Villa, Fener, West Ham, PAOK vs Eintracht, AEK vs Brighton, Panathinaikos vs Marseille, Villarreal proved that there is room for everyone to succeed.

[dnina10]

Greece collected more points this season than 2 years together before. If PAOK could just help with a draw against Brugge or the others earlier...

If Greece fails to finish 15th, the fault will ultimately lie on Panathinaikos. That loss on matchday 6 of the EL, worse to Maccabi Haifa, was just unforgivable

When only 2 points are needed for top15 you can't blame just one club for one result. Greece could have easily taken those 2 points from rest clubs at many occasions they were supposed to get a better result eg Olympiakos at home match against Maccabi Tel Aviv, or at Serbia or PAOK at home match against Aberdeen or at home match against Beitar or Aris against the armenian club. Greek clubs faced 3 clubs from Israel and got better away result in every tie. Greece is also unlucky cause there was a big raise to the points that needed for #15 this season. Of course the number will rise every season since more points are awarded due to ECL points that didn't exist 5 years ago but this season the increase was about 2.500 while previous 2 seasons was less than 1.000

I get what you're saying, and it has logic to it. But let me ask you this, assuming Greece finishes 16th, if I was to ask you to name match that was most detrimental to Greece losing out on 15th, which one would you choose? It'd have to be Pana's game against Maccabi Haifa. Losing to a direct rival when you had the advantage, at home no less. There's just no excuse there

[fabiomh]

I saw this estimation too.
I can agree for England chances, I think it will reach 1st position: ManCity, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa have many chances to reach the Finals.
The gap between Italy and Germany looks like too much in my opinion.
IMHO Germany have more chances to overtake Italy than estimated by OPTA.
All is depending on what will happen in the next round (R16), which will distribute almost 50% of the remaining points.

Italy have still 7/7, but very few Italian teams have chance to go forward and to collect many points.
Let us think about Lazio and Napoli first of all, which likely will collect 0 points in the CL R16 2nd leg and will be eliminated.
In EL Roma and Atalanta will meet strong opponents, likely one of them will be eliminated, but there is 25% probability they will be both eliminated.

On the other side German teams have Bayern and Leverkusen with very good chance to reach the Finals and collecting many points.

What I wrote on February about Germany opportunities was not so far from the reality.
Germany with almost 2 teams in final, and the third team - Bayern - was very close to the final until 88'.

The negative surprise is about the English teams' crash.

But really far off for Italy.

End of February (when you wrote your reply) vs now:
Country February Now Teams Difference

Code: Select all

Italy 	15.571 20.714 2 5.143
Germany 14.500 19.357 2 4.857
England 13.875 17.375 0 3.500
Spain 	13.187 15.812 1 2.625
France 	13.250 16.250 0 3.000

Yes, you're right,
I was pretty sure England overcame Italy and finished 1st. And I was totally wrong. IT was a surprise, probably not for me only.

About Italy vs Germany the probability gap 91% vs 22% looked me too high.
I was thinking that Bayern (yes, even Bayern, altough on February they were playing bad) and Leverkusen would have reached very top level and that Germany probability were higher than 22%;
Germany has been very good, as I expected;
Italy has been beyond my expectations, even increasing the coefficient gap.

[eye]

If Greece fails to finish 15th, the fault will ultimately lie on Panathinaikos. That loss on matchday 6 of the EL, worse to Maccabi Haifa, was just unforgivable

When only 2 points are needed for top15 you can't blame just one club for one result. Greece could have easily taken those 2 points from rest clubs at many occasions they were supposed to get a better result eg Olympiakos at home match against Maccabi Tel Aviv, or at Serbia or PAOK at home match against Aberdeen or at home match against Beitar or Aris against the armenian club. Greek clubs faced 3 clubs from Israel and got better away result in every tie. Greece is also unlucky cause there was a big raise to the points that needed for #15 this season. Of course the number will rise every season since more points are awarded due to ECL points that didn't exist 5 years ago but this season the increase was about 2.500 while previous 2 seasons was less than 1.000

I get what you're saying, and it has logic to it. But let me ask you this, assuming Greece finishes 16th, if I was to ask you to name match that was most detrimental to Greece losing out on 15th, which one would you choose? It'd have to be Pana's game against Maccabi Haifa. Losing to a direct rival when you had the advantage, at home no less. There's just no excuse there

The only that would have chanced if Panathinaikos had qualified over Maccabi Haifa is that Greece could fight for a higher than 15th place but that's another discussion. For #15 I think mostly will cost Olympiakos draw at Serbia (Olympiakos was leading 0-2 at 60 Tobola didn't get any other point except this one) and PAOK's draw against Aberdeen (21(6) vs 2(2) shots ended 2-2). The opponents were much weaker than the clubs of Isreal so these were the matches Greek clubs could have earned easier more points. Panathinaikos was favourite against Maccabi Haifa but also Olympiakos was against Maccabi Tel Aviv and since both Maccabi's are at similar level and Olympiakos and Panathinaikos are at similar level (based on league standings) their failure at home matches were of same importance. When differences are so small every bad result counts and I didn't even mentioned that AEK and PAOK didn't get any single point at 4 matches against the 2 clubs from Belgium they faced or some very bad results of Greek clubs the previous 4 seasons