Friendlies

[Lorric]

San Marino are the weird team that is both underrated (most likely they are not really the worst team in the world as stated by the FIFA rankings given some of their recent ECQ results) and overrated (quite many people believe that they can beat mid-level teams from other confederations but apparently they cannot).

I saw these fixtures, and a BBC article about maybe they win. I didn't and don't think so. I think there's a decent number of teams in CONCACAF, Oceania and Asia San Marino would be favoured to beat, but St. K+N are one of the stronger CONCACAF minnows. I didn't expect them to lose, and I don't expect them to lose the rematch either. Teams right at the bottom of CONCACAF I'd expect San Marino to beat with a cushion.

But given San Marino always play European teams with 10 men behind the ball, it would actually be interesting to see how they will fare against the absolute minnows of the other confederations, such as American Samoa, Anguilla, Seychelles, and Timor-Leste. I am not even sure whether San Marino will beat these teams "with a cushion", given their style of play against these teams will have to be so drastically different from how they are used to playing.

I checked the odds, and the bookmakers don't agree with me:

https://www.flashscore.co.uk/match/8hlv ... /full-time

They were wrong tonight. Wonder how the rematch will be priced?

As for your question, I don't think it will matter against such lowly opposition. San Marino will just beat them with better players, and the organisation these teams lack, these teams concede appalling goals.

[amenina]

I saw these fixtures, and a BBC article about maybe they win. I didn't and don't think so. I think there's a decent number of teams in CONCACAF, Oceania and Asia San Marino would be favoured to beat, but St. K+N are one of the stronger CONCACAF minnows. I didn't expect them to lose, and I don't expect them to lose the rematch either. Teams right at the bottom of CONCACAF I'd expect San Marino to beat with a cushion.

But given San Marino always play European teams with 10 men behind the ball, it would actually be interesting to see how they will fare against the absolute minnows of the other confederations, such as American Samoa, Anguilla, Seychelles, and Timor-Leste. I am not even sure whether San Marino will beat these teams "with a cushion", given their style of play against these teams will have to be so drastically different from how they are used to playing.

I checked the odds, and the bookmakers don't agree with me:

https://www.flashscore.co.uk/match/8hlv ... /full-time

They were wrong tonight. Wonder how the rematch will be priced?

As for your question, I don't think it will matter against such lowly opposition. San Marino will just beat them with better players, and the organisation these teams lack, these teams concede appalling goals.

Bookmakers make odds, not necessarily because of who they think will win, but because of who they think people will bet on. And it is likely that they are more bettors who will put money on San Marino instead of St Kitts and Nevis.

[Lorric]

But given San Marino always play European teams with 10 men behind the ball, it would actually be interesting to see how they will fare against the absolute minnows of the other confederations, such as American Samoa, Anguilla, Seychelles, and Timor-Leste. I am not even sure whether San Marino will beat these teams "with a cushion", given their style of play against these teams will have to be so drastically different from how they are used to playing.

I checked the odds, and the bookmakers don't agree with me:

https://www.flashscore.co.uk/match/8hlv ... /full-time

They were wrong tonight. Wonder how the rematch will be priced?

As for your question, I don't think it will matter against such lowly opposition. San Marino will just beat them with better players, and the organisation these teams lack, these teams concede appalling goals.

Bookmakers make odds, not necessarily because of who they think will win, but because of who they think people will bet on. And it is likely that they are more bettors who will put money on San Marino instead of St Kitts and Nevis.

Why? Why would the general public favour a team that loses all the time over a team that wins plenty of games?

[amenina]

I checked the odds, and the bookmakers don't agree with me:

https://www.flashscore.co.uk/match/8hlv ... /full-time

They were wrong tonight. Wonder how the rematch will be priced?

As for your question, I don't think it will matter against such lowly opposition. San Marino will just beat them with better players, and the organisation these teams lack, these teams concede appalling goals.

Bookmakers make odds, not necessarily because of who they think will win, but because of who they think people will bet on. And it is likely that they are more bettors who will put money on San Marino instead of St Kitts and Nevis.

Why? Why would the general public favour a team that loses all the time over a team that wins plenty of games?

I am guessing these are betting companies from Europe, or at least the majority of bettors are European. So the reason can be continental bias (the bettors think European teams are better), name recognition (people know San Marino but do not know St Kitts and Nevis), or just some sort of moral support (people want San Marino to finally win a game so are willing to put a few pounds/Euros/dollars on them).

[MercedesBenz240]

Bookmakers make odds, not necessarily because of who they think will win, but because of who they think people will bet on. And it is likely that they are more bettors who will put money on San Marino instead of St Kitts and Nevis.

Why? Why would the general public favour a team that loses all the time over a team that wins plenty of games?

I am guessing these are betting companies from Europe, or at least the majority of bettors are European. So the reason can be continental bias (the bettors think European teams are better), name recognition (people know San Marino but do not know St Kitts and Nevis), or just some sort of moral support (people want San Marino to finally win a game so are willing to put a few pounds/Euros/dollars on them).

Definitely

[Lorric]

Why? Why would the general public favour a team that loses all the time over a team that wins plenty of games?

I am guessing these are betting companies from Europe, or at least the majority of bettors are European. So the reason can be continental bias (the bettors think European teams are better), name recognition (people know San Marino but do not know St Kitts and Nevis), or just some sort of moral support (people want San Marino to finally win a game so are willing to put a few pounds/Euros/dollars on them).

Definitely

I wonder how they'll price up the rematch.

[mspm89]

Let's not discount the fact that, ceteris paribus, between two teams of similar [low] technical level, the more physical one is more likely to prevail. ST&N is full of black players, and blacks are more athletic in general than some Sanmarinese postmen.

As Lorric said though, down in Anguilla's level, San Marino's experience and organization should put them above. Didn't they draw recently vs St. Lucia?

[amenina]

Let's not discount the fact that, ceteris paribus, between two teams of similar [low] technical level, the more physical one is more likely to prevail. ST&N is full of black players, and blacks are more athletic in general than some Sanmarinese postmen.

As Lorric said though, down in Anguilla's level, San Marino's experience and organization should put them above. Didn't they draw recently vs St. Lucia?

In 2022, they played four friendlies against teams outside UEFA
0-2 vs Cabo Verde (neutral)
0-0 vs Seychelles (home)
1-1 vs St Lucia (away)
0-1 vs St Lucia (away)

Cabo Verde qualified for AFCON so the loss was as expected.

Seychelles is currently the worst-ranked CAF team, not counting Eritrea who are unranked after a more than 4-year absence. They were getting trounced in WCQ and did not even bother to enter AFCON qualifying for 2025. Probably somewhat like San Marino, a team that was ranked "lower" than what their strength should be because their direct competitors in the continent are all decent.

St Lucia just finished 2nd in the League B group of the most recent CNL, and are about 20 places below SK&N in the current FIFA rankings. San Marino travelled half way around the world, and played them close in two matches.

So I probably agree with the other people's assessment. Against the absolute worst, like American Samoa or Anguilla, San Marino SHOULD win, but I am just not sure they can win easily, like by more than 2 goals. Any team that is a slight level above the true minnows, I would hesitate to call San Marino as favorites.

And looking at the SK&N squad for these two friendlies, a bit more than half of their squads are playing either lower-league or youth level in English football: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Kit ... rent_squad

So it is perhaps like a team of Serie C players (or even worse? I honestly don't know the levels of the San Marino players) against a team of players in the National League + PL youth team players? Not saying that San Marino would have no chance, but to think of them as favorites against SK&N is a bit optimistic.

Finally, it is still a "friendly", and both teams do appear to be calling up many young players and newcomers to their squad for these two matches.

[amenina]

@angel_87 CONMEBOL friendly matches

[Lorric]

Let's not discount the fact that, ceteris paribus, between two teams of similar [low] technical level, the more physical one is more likely to prevail. ST&N is full of black players, and blacks are more athletic in general than some Sanmarinese postmen.

As Lorric said though, down in Anguilla's level, San Marino's experience and organization should put them above. Didn't they draw recently vs St. Lucia?

In 2022, they played four friendlies against teams outside UEFA
0-2 vs Cabo Verde (neutral)
0-0 vs Seychelles (home)
1-1 vs St Lucia (away)
0-1 vs St Lucia (away)

Cabo Verde qualified for AFCON so the loss was as expected.

Seychelles is currently the worst-ranked CAF team, not counting Eritrea who are unranked after a more than 4-year absence. They were getting trounced in WCQ and did not even bother to enter AFCON qualifying for 2025. Probably somewhat like San Marino, a team that was ranked "lower" than what their strength should be because their direct competitors in the continent are all decent.

St Lucia just finished 2nd in the League B group of the most recent CNL, and are about 20 places below SK&N in the current FIFA rankings. San Marino travelled half way around the world, and played them close in two matches.

So I probably agree with the other people's assessment. Against the absolute worst, like American Samoa or Anguilla, San Marino SHOULD win, but I am just not sure they can win easily, like by more than 2 goals. Any team that is a slight level above the true minnows, I would hesitate to call San Marino as favorites.

And looking at the SK&N squad for these two friendlies, a bit more than half of their squads are playing either lower-league or youth level in English football: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Kit ... rent_squad

So it is perhaps like a team of Serie C players (or even worse? I honestly don't know the levels of the San Marino players) against a team of players in the National League + PL youth team players? Not saying that San Marino would have no chance, but to think of them as favorites against SK&N is a bit optimistic.

Finally, it is still a "friendly", and both teams do appear to be calling up many young players and newcomers to their squad for these two matches.

One thing, you'll notice I didn't mention Africa at all when talking about who they could beat. Much stronger confederation at the bottom than the others I mentioned. Asia next strongest I think, I don't think I'd make the cushion prediction for anyone there. But bottom of CONCACAF and Oceania I would.

[Lorric]

Unusual one, Hull City's 2nd string lost 1-0 to Curacao in Turkey.

[amenina]

20 March 2024
El Salvador 1-1 Bonaire

Note: This is a non-FIFA friendly since Bonaire is not a FIFA-affiliated team.

[amenina]

21 March 2024
Solomon Islands 0-2 Fiji
Ethiopia 1-2 Lesotho
Cyprus 1-1 Latvia
Belarus 0-2 Montenegro
Russia 4-0 Serbia
Malta 2-2 Slovenia
Cabo Verde 1-0 Guyana (FIFA Series)
Guinea 6-0 Vanuatu (FIFA Series)
Portugal 5-2 Sweden
Italy 2-1 Venezuela
Andorra 1-1 South Africa (FIFA Series)
Ecuador 2-0 Guatemala
Belize 1-1 Puerto Rico

[angel_87]

@angel_87 CONMEBOL friendly matches

thanks

[Lorric]

Such awful results for our Euro opposition Serbia and Slovenia.