Current FIFA Ranking

[wannabeontop]

There will be an interesting battle for position 12 in terms of the UEFA / European ranking. Anyone gets that after the EURO gets to be seeded in the European qualifiers of the world cup. Teams 12 to 18 (again, European ranking) are extremely close to each other (within ~20 Élő points).

[Korgutt]

There will be an interesting battle for position 12 in terms of the UEFA / European ranking. Anyone gets that after the EURO gets to be seeded in the European qualifiers of the world cup. Teams 12 to 18 (again, European ranking) are extremely close to each other (within ~20 Élő points).

POT 1: Nations number 1-12 among the european Nations?
POT 2: Nations number 13-24 among the european Nations?
POT 3: Nations number 25-36 among european Nations?
POT 4: Nations number 37-48 among european Nations?
POT 5: Nations number 49-55 among european Nations?
Is it so it will be with seeding next FIFA World Cup qualifying from Europe?

[wannabeontop]

I guess so, or something very similar, yeah. Because there will be 12 groups if I'm not mistaken.

[Ed]

The draw for the European qualification for the World Cup 2026 will be staged after the Nations League 2024 group stage has been played (probably in December 2024). There will be 12 groups of 4 or 5 teams, so it will be seeding pots of 12 teams, based on the FIFA November 2024 ranking.
The 12 group winners qualify for the WC, the 12 runners-up qualify together with the best 4 UNL group-winners (not already qualified) for the play-offs in March 2026. This will be played in 4 paths (one-off semi-finals and final), to decide the remaining 4 UEFA berths.

[amirbachar]

Deleted

[YAYgee]

The draw for the European qualification for the World Cup 2026 will be staged after the Nations League 2024 group stage has been played (probably in December 2024). There will be 12 groups of 4 or 5 teams, so it will be seeding pots of 12 teams, based on the FIFA November 2024 ranking.
The 12 group winners qualify for the WC, the 12 runners-up qualify together with the best 4 UNL group-winners (not already qualified) for the play-offs in March 2026. This will be played in 4 paths (one-off semi-finals and final), to decide the remaining 4 UEFA berths.

Giving League A group winners a second chance in the play-offs instead of the winners of the NL quarters is a bit awkward (it might be the group runners-up that advance to the Final 4). You could end up with a situation where a team that reached the NL finals (and that will be ranked higher than the QF losers in the overall NL ranking) is blocked from the play-offs while the lower ranked QF loser...

Looks like League C could get a rather large chunk of those best 4 NL group winners play-off spots. For example is it so unlikely that 4 League A group winners and England, Austria +/- 1 (or even 4 group winners from League B) qualify directly or as runners-up for the play-offs? England are alright. Austria are playing well under Rangnick so could win their League B group and be in pot 1 for the WCQs draw (unless they land in a GoD in the EC I can definitely see them advance to the KOs and collect a fair few points to put some daylight between them and Sweden that are currently the 12th European team in the FIFA rankings). Plenty of others in League B that can "take away" a top two spot in the WCQs from League A teams that might struggle in both NL and WCQs.

[Sagy]

The draw for the European qualification for the World Cup 2026 will be staged after the Nations League 2024 group stage has been played (probably in December 2024). There will be 12 groups of 4 or 5 teams, so it will be seeding pots of 12 teams, based on the FIFA November 2024 ranking.
The 12 group winners qualify for the WC, the 12 runners-up qualify together with the best 4 UNL group-winners (not already qualified) for the play-offs in March 2026. This will be played in 4 paths (one-off semi-finals and final), to decide the remaining 4 UEFA berths.

@Ed are you sure about “group winners”?

What I can Find from FIFA (scroll down to “UEFA”)

UEFA play-off competition involving the 12 group runners-up and four best-ranked UEFA Nations League section winners.

I see no mention of group winners. Has that changed since 28 Aug 2023?

[Ed]

I interpret "four best-ranked UNL section winners" as "four best-ranked UNL group winners". So does wiki by the way https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA ... ion_(UEFA).
How do you interpret this sentence ? What would you consider a "section" in this context ?

[Sagy]

I interpret "four best-ranked UNL section winners" as "four best-ranked UNL group winners". So does wiki by the way https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA ... ion_(UEFA).
How do you interpret this sentence ? What would you consider a "section" in this context ?

To me “four best-ranked UNL section winners" is at best confusing and can be interpreted like you stated (that would be consistent with UEFA 2022 WC qualification).

With 4 teams going to the playoffs this time (only 2 in 2022 WCQ) and a team like England in league B (sure to finish top 2 in its group) there is a real likelihood that under this format a league C team that finished outside top 2 in the group will enter the PO. I have to admit that if this happens, I would find it problematic.

[YAYgee]

I interpret "four best-ranked UNL section winners" as "four best-ranked UNL group winners". So does wiki by the way https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA ... ion_(UEFA).
How do you interpret this sentence ? What would you consider a "section" in this context ?

https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/news/02 ... 7dea-1000/

"The group stage consists of the traditional league format of home and away matches and is played in 12 groups of 4 or 5 teams between March and November 2025. The 12 group winners qualify directly for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 12 group runners-up shall participate in the play-offs which will be played in March 2026. In addition to those 12 sides, the best-ranked four group winners of the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League that have not finished their European Qualifiers group stage in first or second place will make up the 16-team play-offs."

It does sound like it will be the group winners. However the team(s) that win their QF ties in March 2015 will go onto play in the Final 4 and will eventually be ranked 1-4. It's then somewhat odd that a play-off spot could go to a team ranked 5-8 in the overall ranking, i.e. won its group but lost in the quarters, instead of the higher ranked team(s).

Also, do you expect teams that lose their QF ties in the NL to lose FIFA ranking points? AFAIK Final 4 teams don't lose points but these quarters look more like they're part of the prelim. comp. to qualify for the final 4 event.

[YAYgee]

I interpret "four best-ranked UNL section winners" as "four best-ranked UNL group winners". So does wiki by the way https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA ... ion_(UEFA).
How do you interpret this sentence ? What would you consider a "section" in this context ?

To me “four best-ranked UNL section winners" is at best confusing and can be interpreted like you stated (that would be consistent with UEFA 2022 WC qualification).

With 4 teams going to the playoffs this time (only 2 in 2022 WCQ) and a team like England in league B (sure to finish top 2 in its group) there is a real likelihood that under this format a league C team that finished outside top 2 in the group will enter the PO. I have to admit that if this happens, I would find it problematic.

With 24 spots (top 2 in 12 groups) most of League A and B teams won't need the NL backdoor, especially the group winners. There most likely will be multiple League C teams making the play-offs. Not as probable but I wouldn't even rule out a League D team in case the 8 group winners from League A and B don't need a way into the play-offs via the NL. A Romania, Sweden, Russia (if they're back by then), ... can get a top two spot in regular qualis and top their NL group for example.

Edit: the most likely teams to need the NL backdoor in League A (Israel, Bosnia, Scotland, Poland, Serbia, ...) are the least likely to end up as group winners (while League A group winners will most likely not need the NL backdoor). In League B there a fair few teams that can get a top two spot in regular qualis and these teams are also the most likely to win their NL groups.

[Sagy]

I interpret "four best-ranked UNL section winners" as "four best-ranked UNL group winners". So does wiki by the way https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA ... ion_(UEFA).
How do you interpret this sentence ? What would you consider a "section" in this context ?

To me “four best-ranked UNL section winners" is at best confusing and can be interpreted like you stated (that would be consistent with UEFA 2022 WC qualification).

With 4 teams going to the playoffs this time (only 2 in 2022 WCQ) and a team like England in league B (sure to finish top 2 in its group) there is a real likelihood that under this format a league C team that finished outside top 2 in the group will enter the PO. I have to admit that if this happens, I would find it problematic.

With 24 spots (top 2 in 12 groups) most of League A and B teams won't need the NL backdoor, especially the group winners. There most likely will be multiple League C teams making the play-offs. Not as probable but I wouldn't even rule out a League D team in case the 8 group winners from League A and B don't need a way into the play-offs via the NL. A Romania, Sweden, Russia (if they're back by then), ... can get a top two spot in regular qualis and top their NL group for example.

Edit: the most likely teams to need the NL backdoor in League A (Israel, Bosnia, Scotland, Poland, Serbia, ...) are the least likely to end up as group winners (while League A group winners will most likely not need the NL backdoor). In League B there a fair few teams that can get a top two spot in regular qualis and these teams are also the most likely to win their NL groups.

I think that you are making my point. We know that at least 8 leave A or League B teams will not Qualify for the WC or the PO. As you pointed out, most teams that will win league A or B groups are likely to finish top 2 in WC qualifying group. While teams in league A and B that might not finish top 2 in WC qualifying are also unlikely to win their UNL group. This mean that there is a probability, even likelihood, that a team from league A or B that finished ahead of a league C or D UNL group winner in WC qualifying will be left out of the PO while the lower finishing team (which is also lower ranked in UNL) will be in the WC PO.

If these are the rules, we have to accept it, I personally, find this problematic. I would find it much more acceptable to take the top 4 UNL ranked teams or the top 4 UNL teams that finished WCQ group in third place.

[Tazmania]

Qualification for the playoffs is to that used for 2022 with the sole exception being that four teams instead of two will qualify for the playoffs via winning their NL group.

[Korgutt]

Is it possible to say something about the relations between Nations League Overall Ranking and joining A group of four or five?

[Jackson Harrison]

Is it possible to say something about the relations between Nations League Overall Ranking and joining A group of four or five?

Not sure what you mean?