Schedule Match Sequence

[amirbachar]

UEFA seems to change the sequence from 1-2-3-3-1-2 to 1-2-3-3-2-1.
I wonder why is that, seems like a minor detail to change suddenly.

[Forza AZ]

UEFA seems to change the sequence from 1-2-3-3-1-2 to 1-2-3-3-2-1.
I wonder why is that, seems like a minor detail to change suddenly.

I think the new sequence is better, since playing at home in matchdays 1 and 6 is a bit of an advantage I think. In the old sequence the same teams played at home in matchdays 1 and 6, and now not any more.

[bert.kassies]

For a long time it has been 1-2-3-3-1-2 and that sequence was fixed in the regulations. The regulations now only say: "A club does not play more than two home or two away matches in a row and each club plays one home match and one away match on the first and last two matchdays."

[bert.kassies]

CL-groups:

Club Brugge
Paris Saint-Germain
Manchester City
RB Leipzig

Atlético Madrid
FC Porto
Liverpool
AC Milan

Sporting CP Lisbon
Ajax
Besiktas
Borussia Dortmund

Sheriff Tiraspol
Shakhtar Donetsk
Internazionale
Real Madrid

Dinamo Kiev
Benfica
FC Barcelona
Bayern München

Young Boys
Manchester United
Villarreal
Atalanta

Sevilla
FC Salzburg
Lille OSC
VfL Wolfsburg

Chelsea
Zenit St. Petersburg
Malmö FF
Juventus

If the clubs are ordered in the groups as shown then the fixtures are as follows:

Day 1: 1-2 and 3-4
Day 2: 2-3 and 4-1
Day 3: 2-4 and 3-1
Day 4: 4-2 and 1-3
Day 5: 3-2 and 1-4
Day 6: 2-1 and 4-3

Except that they interchanged Day 3 and Day 4 for Villarreal - Young Boys and Malmö FF - Chelsea. But why?

Applying the same concept to EL gives 3 interchanged Day 3 and Day 4 matches, and for ECL again 2 interchanged Day 3 and Day 4 matches. So, the sequence of Day 3 and Day 4 seems to be more or less random (Note that within the restrictions it always possible to order the teams such that Day1, Day2, and the first match of Day 3 are in sync).

[Overgame]

The systems have 4 variations:
New:
H A H A H A
H A A H H A
A H H A A H
A H A H A H

Old:
H A H A A H
H A A H A H
A H H A H A
A H A H H A

[FEPG]

since playing at home in matchdays 1 and 6 is a bit of an advantage I think.

Are there any statistics to confirm this? I don't think this advantage is as big as playing 30 extra minutes (never mind the penalties) on your own pitch.

[Forza AZ]

since playing at home in matchdays 1 and 6 is a bit of an advantage I think.

Are there any statistics to confirm this? I don't think this advantage is as big as playing 30 extra minutes (never mind the penalties) on your own pitch.

I don't know.

It is just that it feels like it is better to start at home to have a better chance of a good start of your campaign. And also the last match at home feels better since that might be a decisive match.

[SimonB]

since playing at home in matchdays 1 and 6 is a bit of an advantage I think.

Are there any statistics to confirm this? I don't think this advantage is as big as playing 30 extra minutes (never mind the penalties) on your own pitch.

I don't know.

It is just that it feels like it is better to start at home to have a better chance of a good start of your campaign. And also the last match at home feels better since that might be a decisive match.

I think that this subject was brought up on here before, by elkjiaer I believe, and I agree with you Forza AZ that it seems like a better way to do it.I also don't know about statistics on this but it does seem like an advantage to play at home 1st and last even if it doesn't turn out that way.

[Ricardo]

Of the 5 Dutch teams, 4 play at home on MD3, only AZ is playing away.
As I still think that it is better to play at home after playing away vs. an opponent this is a disadvantage.

[As_Contas_do_Título]

I always understood that the reason for the MD 1,5; MD 2,6; MD 3,4 was that it was the only way in which each team made two straight games home or away only once. And the most "normal" way of 1,4; 2,5; 3,6 would even force some teams to play three games straight home or away. This change for preventing teams to play both first and last game home doesn't make a lot of sense to me, it seems just Uefa trying to make innovations. Anyway, 3 years from now and no more 4 teams double round robin on european competitions, with the new competition formats taking place.

[rpo.castro]

I don't understand the change. Looks minimal to me. Some people prefere away first so when the race is tightening they have home advantage. Some prefer to have a smoother start at home (and with this 2 sentences I refer to having more home matches in first half or second turn).

Something odd is that in past, you knew how the schedule would be. 1-4 and 2-3 in first matchday, 2-4 and 3-1, and then 1-2 and 4-3. Now they take a lot to get the schedule and I think the groups have different pairings. Maybe so you don't have all the matches between pot 1 and 2 at same time. Maybe to try to get the fight to last match?

[amirbachar]

I don't understand the change. Looks minimal to me. Some people prefere away first so when the race is tightening they have home advantage. Some prefer to have a smoother start at home (and with this 2 sentences I refer to having more home matches in first half or second turn).

Something odd is that in past, you knew how the schedule would be. 1-4 and 2-3 in first matchday, 2-4 and 3-1, and then 1-2 and 4-3. Now they take a lot to get the schedule and I think the groups have different pairings. Maybe so you don't have all the matches between pot 1 and 2 at same time. Maybe to try to get the fight to last match?

The positions were always drawn, not determined by the seeding pots.

[Natan]

Except that they interchanged Day 3 and Day 4 for Villarreal - Young Boys and Malmö FF - Chelsea. But why?

Maybe there is some external reason, like a big event in one of the cities. For example, the Chicago Bulls, if I remember correctly, always have a long stretch of away games at a specific time because there is some big fair going on in Chicago.

[elkjiaer is back]

As someone else wrote here on the blog the new fixture system is the following:

A) H A H A H A
B) H A A H H A
C) A H H A A H
D) A H A H A H

Note that A-D and B-C are symmetrical (when one plays home the other plays always away and vice versa).

Someone was saying that the calendar order is drawn at random, but this is not described anywhere in the Uefa regulations and for me this is one of the most controversial aspects.

What we know for sure is the following:
1) Teams from countries defined as winter venues are "usually" playing away on the last matchday. What are those countries? if we look at Euro2020 qualifiers they were Belarus, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Russia, Ukraine.
Interestingly enough Uefa defines Ukraine as Winter venue for international competitions, but not for UCL and UEL. Russia instead is a winter venue and russian teams always played away on the last matchday, but this has also changed in the last 2 seasons at least for Zenit, which is in fact playing home on MD6 with Chelsea.
2) Teams from the same city are usually not playing home on the same matchday regardless of wheteher they are paired for TV coverage or not.
I have identified 4 of those instances this season:
City-United, Atletico-Real, Inter-Milan and SPorting-Benfica. Remember what i says about symmetry? this is when the rule becomes useful and in fact all 4 paires where split using A-D or B-C

Fun Fuct: all 4 German teams play with exactly the same sequence of H/A matches (Sequence D)

Regarding randomess: if we Map how teams from different pots were allocated in the 4 calendar orders (A to D), it does not seem as it was totally random.
Pot 1: 4A, 3B, 0C, 1D
Pot2: 1A, 2B, 2C, 3D
Pot3: 0A, 0B, 6C, 2D
Pot4: 3A, 3B, 0C, 2D

If I have the time I will try to look not at individual pots but rather at Uefa ranking (some Pot2 teams have higher cofficients than pot 1 for example and pot1 Lille has the lowest coefficient overall...)

Note: The calendar order matters to some extent, but what is reallt important is how we link team strenght with the calendar. I have made some studies about this, but at the end of the day you do not even need simulations, just using intutition.

In other words: Given 4 teams where 1>2>3>4, what is the best allocation of teams into calendar order A, B, C, D to ensure maximum excitment of the competition?

[FEPG]

In other words: Given 4 teams where 1>2>3>4, what is the best allocation of teams into calendar order A, B, C, D to ensure maximum excitment of the competition?

If I were to do it, I'd probably use ClubElo & simulate each group independently using the Monte Carlo method to find the mean number of meaningless games for each permutation (4! = 24 perms per group). Then I would find the arrangement (1 perm from each group) with the lowest weight (sum of means) satisfying geographical constraints (i.e. teams from the same city cannot play at home on the same week, etc).

But then again, there's a reason why I don't work at UEFA.