Schedule Match Sequence

[elkjiaer is back]

In other words: Given 4 teams where 1>2>3>4, what is the best allocation of teams into calendar order A, B, C, D to ensure maximum excitment of the competition?

If I were to do it, I'd probably use ClubElo & simulate each group independently using the Monte Carlo method to find the mean number of meaningless games for each permutation (4! = 24 perms per group). Then I would find the arrangement (1 perm from each group) with the lowest weight (sum of means) satisfying geographical constraints (i.e. teams from the same city cannot play at home on the same week, etc).

But then again, there's a reason why I don't work at UEFA.

THis would be the right way of doing it, but we should remember that
1) Uefa does not care about Elo ratings or any other rating that is not the Uefa coefficients
2) They should define a rule which is generally valid for every competition and every season for the sake of transparency

Besides all the constrains, what Uefa should be aiming for is to minimize the number of dead/half-dead matches especially on the last 2 matchdays. This is a bit of a problem in competitions like UCL and UEL where at least 3 final positions out of 4 are relevant, but in a competition like ECL (and formerly also UEL), only finishing 1st or 2nd matters so there the issue is even greater.

Let´s just use intution for now and forget for a moment about simulations.
You have 4 teams where A>B>C>D (using either pots or their actual coefficient)
You are aiming to maximize the uncertainty so that the highest possible number of teams has still something to play for on the last matchdays (none is eliminated nor already qualified for example)

So basically you just to make sure that A and B play against C and D as late as possible so they do not gain too many points.
In the new configuration 1-2-3-3-2-1 it means that

MD1: D-A, C-B so that on MD6 A-D and B-C
MD2: A-C, B-D so that on MD5 C-A and D-B
MD3: A-B and C-D and MD4 B-A and D-C

[As_Contas_do_Título]

CL-groups:

Club Brugge
Paris Saint-Germain
Manchester City
RB Leipzig

Atlético Madrid
FC Porto
Liverpool
AC Milan

Sporting CP Lisbon
Ajax
Besiktas
Borussia Dortmund

Sheriff Tiraspol
Shakhtar Donetsk
Internazionale
Real Madrid

Dinamo Kiev
Benfica
FC Barcelona
Bayern München

Young Boys
Manchester United
Villarreal
Atalanta

Sevilla
FC Salzburg
Lille OSC
VfL Wolfsburg

Chelsea
Zenit St. Petersburg
Malmö FF
Juventus

If the clubs are ordered in the groups as shown then the fixtures are as follows:

Day 1: 1-2 and 3-4
Day 2: 2-3 and 4-1
Day 3: 2-4 and 3-1
Day 4: 4-2 and 1-3
Day 5: 3-2 and 1-4
Day 6: 2-1 and 4-3

Except that they interchanged Day 3 and Day 4 for Villarreal - Young Boys and Malmö FF - Chelsea. But why?

Applying the same concept to EL gives 3 interchanged Day 3 and Day 4 matches, and for ECL again 2 interchanged Day 3 and Day 4 matches. So, the sequence of Day 3 and Day 4 seems to be more or less random (Note that within the restrictions it always possible to order the teams such that Day1, Day2, and the first match of Day 3 are in sync).

Sorry, Bert, but actually the ECL has 6 interchanged groups, the opposite of the CL (while in the CL, 6 groups have the teams that played on MD2 playing both either home or away, and 2 groups where only one of the teams on each MD2 match that plays home on MD3, the ECL has 2 groups on the first situation and 6 on the second). I guess that the computer now draws it randomly (just respecting the rules and restrictions) and without a pre-determined model like before.

[As_Contas_do_Título]

And there is another change: Before, teams alternated between playing on a Tuesday and a Wednesday in every Group Stage matchday, with exception of the MD2 to MD3, when they repeated the day, surely to make the teams that played each other on a Wednesday on their first game play their other game on a Tuesday and vice-versa. Now, with the change on the sequence (with the opponent order mirrored), they didn't needed to make two consecutive games in the same day of the week. However, they decided to repeat both from MD2 to MD3 and from MD4 to MD5.

[Mr1Mr]

Can anyone simulate a possible Schedule Match Sequence for the new Champions League format from 2024 of 36 teams?
Like such teams will participate:
Pot 1: 1A 2A 3A ... 9A
Pot 2: 1B 2B 3B ... 9B
...
Pot 4: 4D 4D 4D ... 9 D
What would Round 1-10 matchups look like? I know how to do this in the real Swiss format, where fixtures are determined by previous results. But how the fixtures can look like if you have to arrange them in advance for the whole group stage not depending on real results, but just on pots (like UEFA will do)?
I know that this hasn't been announced yet, but can you try guessing or suggesting a probable format of schedule?

[As_Contas_do_Título]

Can anyone simulate a possible Schedule Match Sequence for the new Champions League format from 2024 of 36 teams?
Like such teams will participate:
Pot 1: 1A 2A 3A ... 9A
Pot 2: 1B 2B 3B ... 9B
...
Pot 4: 4D 4D 4D ... 9 D
What would Round 1-10 matchups look like? I know how to do this in the real Swiss format, where fixtures are determined by previous results. But how the fixtures can look like if you have to arrange them in advance for the whole group stage not depending on real results, but just on pots (like UEFA will do)?
I know that this hasn't been announced yet, but can you try guessing or suggesting a probable format of schedule?

There are multiple ways to do that, and possibly they may have a computer doing the schedule instead of a predetermined schedule like this one, but here is a possibility:

Matchday 1: A1-C1 A2-C2 A3-C3 A4-C4 A5-C5 A6-C6 A7-C7 A8-C8 A9-C9 D1-B1 D2-B2 D3-B3 D4-B4 D5-B5 D6-B6 D7-B7 D8-B8 D9-B9
Matchday 2: B1-A2 B2-A3 B3-A4 B4-A5 B5-A6 B6-A7 B7-A8 B8-A9 B9-A1 C1-D2 C2-D3 C3-D4 C4-D5 C5-D6 C6-D7 C7-D8 C8-D9 C9-D1
Matchday 3: A1-B3 A2-B4 A3-B5 A4-B6 A5-B7 A6-B8 A7-B9 A8-B1 A9-B2 D1-C3 D2-C4 D3-C5 D4-C6 D5-C7 D6-C8 D7-C9 D8-C1 D9-C2
Matchday 4: C1-A4 C2-A5 C3-A6 C4-A7 C5-A8 C6-A9 C7-A1 C8-A2 C9-A3 B1-D4 B2-D5 B3-D6 B4-D7 B5-D8 B6-D9 B7-D1 B8-D2 B9-D3
Matchday 5: A1-B5 A2-B6 A3-B7 A4-B8 A5-B9 A6-B1 A7-B2 A8-B3 A9-B4 D1-C5 D2-C6 D3-C7 D4-C8 D5-C9 D6-C1 D7-C2 D8-C3 D9-C4
Matchday 6: C1-A5 C2-A6 C3-A7 C4-A8 C5-A9 C6-A1 C7-A2 C8-A3 C9-A4 B1-D5 B2-D6 B3-D7 B4-D8 B5-D9 B6-D1 B7-D2 B8-D3 B9-D4
Matchday 7: A2-A1 D1-D2 A3-D3 A5-A4 D4-D5 A6-D6 A8-A7 D7-D8 A9-D9 B2-B1 C1-C2 B3-C3 B5-B4 C4-C5 B6-C6 B8-B7 C7-C8 B9-C9
Matchday 8: A1-D4 D5-A2 D6-A3 A4-D7 D8-A5 D9-A6 A7-D1 D2-A8 D3-A9 B1-C4 C5-B2 C6-B3 B4-C7 C8-B5 C9-B6 B7-C1 C2-B8 C3-B9
Matchday 9: D1-A1 A3-A2 D2-D3 D4-A4 A6-A5 D5-D6 D7-A7 A9-A8 D8-D9 C1-B1 B3-B2 C2-C3 C4-B4 B6-B5 C5-C6 C7-B7 B9-B8 C8-C9
Matchday 10: A2-D2 A4-A3 D3-D4 A5-D5 A7-A6 D6-D7 A8-D8 A1-A9 D9-D1 B2-C2 B4-B3 C3-C4 B5-C5 B7-B6 C6-C7 B8-C8 B1-B9 C9-C1

According to this, one third of the teams (12) never play two consecutive games home or away, one half of the teams (18) play two consecutive games home or away once and one sixth of the teams (6) play two consecutive games home and two consecutive games away. There is no set of 4 teams that play all among them (there are sets of 3 teams who play all but there was no possible way of avoid it with 10 rounds and 36 teams). The nine games with both teams from pot A are played in three of the last four matchdays, including the last two matchdays, so these games can be played one each day of the week (since the weeks in which only the Champions League is played will also have CL games on Thursday). And, of course, is respected the number of games between pots that UEFA has stipulated (teams from pot A play 2 games vs pot A and D and 3 games vs B and C, etc...).

[Club-Mate]

great job _Contas_
until 2024 for instance pot 3 teams (C) played against A = 2 matches, B = 2 matches, D = 2 matches
after 2024 it would be:
1) pot 3 (C) teams against A = 3 matches, B = 2 matches, C = 2 matches and D = 3 matches. I only checked C1 and
2) pot 4 (D) teams against A = 2 matches, B = 3 matches, C = 3 matches, D = 2 matches
This is much more fairer as obviously all pot teams will face equal/strong/weaker teams in an almost similar number (50% stronger teams and 50% equal or weaker teams for C teams). Presently pot 3 and pot 4 teams were disadvantaged with 66 % resp. 100 % only stronger opponents. This is one reason why eg even weaker pot 2 teams always could expect an easier group after draws than C or D teams did.
I can hardly wait for this change.

[As_Contas_do_Título]

great job _Contas_
until 2024 for instance pot 3 teams (C) played against A = 2 matches, B = 2 matches, D = 2 matches
after 2024 it would be:
1) pot 3 (C) teams against A = 3 matches, B = 2 matches, C = 2 matches and D = 3 matches. I only checked C1 and
2) pot 4 (D) teams against A = 2 matches, B = 3 matches, C = 3 matches, D = 2 matches
This is much more fairer as obviously all pot teams will face equal/strong/weaker teams in an almost similar number (50% stronger teams and 50% equal or weaker teams for C teams). Presently pot 3 and pot 4 teams were disadvantaged with 66 % resp. 100 % only stronger opponents. This is one reason why eg even weaker pot 2 teams always could expect an easier group after draws than C or D teams did.
I can hardly wait for this change.

Thanks, Mate!
I agree with you, this system is more fair.

[UCL_Lover]

Moved here from:
Group stage order of fixtures changed
--------------------------------------------


Have you noticed that order of fixtures has changed this season in all 3 competitions?
In fact the order of return legs has changed.


Briefly talking, suppose that MD 1-3 are: (1), (2), (3).
Return MDs 4-6 used to be: (3), (1), (2).
Now they are: (3), (2), (1).
So, actually we have a reverse on last 2 MDs; the order they are played.

Let's take Chelsea's program this season for example (selected them as title holders).
1 Zenit (home)
2 Juventus (away)
3 Malmo (home)
4 Malmo (away)
5 Juventus (home)
6 Zenit (away)
Previously, they would have to play Zenit (away) on MD5 and Juventus (home) on MD6.
They would start and end at home and would have once 2 away games (MDs 4 and 5).
Now they start at home, end away and have no consecutime home/away games.

But let's take a look at Zenit's schedule, too:
1 Chelsea (away)
2 Malmo (home)
3 Juventus (home)
4 Juventus (away)
5 Malmo (away)
6 Chelsea (home)
Since on MDs 2-3 they have 2 consecutive home games, now, with the latest change, they will have after that 2 consecutive away games on MDs 4-5.

I do not know why UEFA changed the order of MDs 5 and 6 (previously MD5 is played as MD6 now and vice versa).
Now, if some club start at home they will end away and vice versa.
Some clubs will always change venue (h/a) from md to md, but others will play 2 at home and 2 away in a row during their 6 gs matches.

Does anybody have an idea why UEFA changed that?

[UCL_Lover]

The systems have 4 variations:
New:
H A H A H A
H A A H H A
A H H A A H
A H A H A H

Old:
H A H A A H
H A A H A H
A H H A H A
A H A H H A

Like I have mentioned, before the main variations were:
a. start/end at home, have 2 in-a-row away once
b. start/end away, have 2 in-a-row at home once

But now...
- if you start at home, you end away
- if you start away, you end at home
- half teams have no 2 in-a-row either home or away clashes
- half teams have 2 in-a-row at home (away) and then 2 in-a-row away (at home) clashes on inside MDs (not first or last)

Since they have actually changed this, my question is:
Do they give the "H A H A H A" or "A H A H A H" option to specific clubs, eg depending on pots of coefficients or not?
Provided of course that the so-called "winter teams" play away on MD6 or rules for TV rights and same city are not violated. Btw, Zenit (Rus) will play Chelsea at home on last MD...

They changed this after so many years. The schedule used to be like last season's since the beginning of history of group stages.
Was it something predecided and scheduled? Or was it just a mistake or some bug on the computer program which creates schedule?
Since the order of games is not longer mentioned on regulations, maybe this has been made for some reason that is not officially released yet or we just don't know.

[Polak]

I think it's one of those 'freshen things up for the sake of it so it doesn't get stale' moves. That's probably also why they plan to completely change the format of the CL in a few years.

[bert.kassies]

Just to be complete my analysis of the schedules. No new conclusions.

There are only a few options within the requirement that each club plays one home match and one away match on the first two matchdays and the last two matchdays.

Let MD1 be: (1-2) and (3-4)
Then MD2 must be: (4-1) and (2-3)

Note that at MD3 team 1 and 3 cannot both play both at home nor both play away. Now let team 1 play at home and team 3 play away (which is arbitrary because the MD1 pairs can be interchanged).
Then there are 2 options for MD3: (1-3) and (2-4) or (1-3) and (4-2). The old format always used the 1st option.

MD4 can only be the returns of MD3, otherwise one of the teams cannot play both home and away in the last two matchdays.

Then for MD5 and MD6 there are 2 options:

a) the old format
MD5 returns MD1
MD6 returns MD2

b) the new format
MD5 returns MD2
MD6 returns MD1

That's all. No more options. The requirement that a club does not play more than two home or two away matches in a row is even redundant.

OLD FORMAT:
(1-2) and (3-4)
(4-1) and (2-3)
(1-3) and (2-4)
(3-1) and (4-2)
(2-1) and (4-3)
(1-4) and (3-2)

1: HAHAAH
2: AHHAHA
3: HAAHAH
4: AHAHHA

OLD OPTION NEVER USED:
(1-2) and (3-4)
(4-1) and (2-3)
(1-3) and (4-2)
(3-1) and (2-4)
(2-1) and (4-3)
(1-4) and (3-2)

1: HAHAAH
2: AHAHHA
3: HAAHAH
4: AHHAHA

==============================

NEW FORMAT 1:
(1-2) and (3-4)
(4-1) and (2-3)
(1-3) and (2-4)
(3-1) and (4-2)
(1-4) and (3-2)
(2-1) and (4-3)

1: HAHAHA
2: AHHAAH
3: HAAHHA
4: AHAHAH

NEW FORMAT 2:
(1-2) and (3-4)
(4-1) and (2-3)
(1-3) and (4-2)
(3-1) and (2-4)
(1-4) and (3-2)
(2-1) and (4-3)

1: HAHAHA
2: AHAHAH
3: HAAHHA
4: AHHAAH

So, like Overgame already said the old and new format have both only one possible set of home-away options per team.

The advantage of the old system was that each team only plays once 2 home or 2 away matches in a row. The disadvantage of the old system was that a team starts and ends with both home or both away matches.

The advantage of the new system is that if a team starts with a home match, then it ends with an away match, or the other way around. The disadvantage of the new system is that two teams each play 2 home and 2 away matches in a row, while the other 2 teams never play any home or away matches in a row.

Hard to say what is better: old or new?

[UCL_Lover]

Bert has explained it nice in his above post.

Well, I guess that there is no clear answer; which format is better.

If we get the statictical data of the teams which in the previous seasons started/ended their group adventure either at home or away and their final group position, we may come into some conclusion if that factor affects the team's chances in the group.
Of course it's not an easy task, since it depends on many other criteria, like opponents in group, current form, current group standings, etc.

Personnaly, for the teams that will have to play 2 in-a-row at home and then away (or away and then at home) it may be tougher than those who won't have any 2 in-a-row duties on same kind of ground (home or away). And that's in my opinion the main disadvantage of new system. That it creates some kind of inequalities among teams of the same group. Before, it was different. The so-called advantage of the teams who had their start and end at home was balanced out with the 2 in a row away games, while the 2 in a row home matches were sweetening the deal for the clubs that were in the position to play both their first and last group clashes away from home.

[As_Contas_do_Título]

This change for preventing teams to play both first and last game home doesn't make a lot of sense to me, it seems just Uefa trying to make innovations.

I've misread the rule "A club does not play more than two home or two away matches in a row and each club plays one home match and one away match on the first and last two matchdays." by ignoring the word "two". This way the change is, however, even more strange, as the old sequence was already complying with these rules. And don't understand why there are no groups with a sequence like the old one.

[As_Contas_do_Título]

(there are sets of 3 teams who play all but there was no possible way of avoid it with 10 rounds and 36 teams)

Actually it's possible, even with the pot constraints. However, I think there is no big advantage on that, and it would compromise the home/away alternancy and also force some pairs of teams to have as much as 7 common opponents.

[bert.kassies]

In order to run some simulations on the new format of next season I need a schedule example for the Champions League, Europa League, and for the Conference League. For CL/EL the schedule of @As_Contas_do_Título (see viewtopic.php?p=486445#p486445) is the best I could find. For the Conference League I use a schedule with strict alternating between home/away matches. Both methods are explained below:

UEFA conditions:
- each club plays an equal number of matches at home and away
- each club plays one home match and one away match on the first two matchdays and the last two matchdays
- no more than two consecutive home or away games in a row

Champions League and Europa League, 36 teams, 4 groups with random labels A-D and random spot 1-9

Format example (similar to method of As_Contas_do_Título):
- split each pot in 3 subgroups i, j, and k based on intra-pot matches
- intra-pot matches played at 3 days of 2nd part of the schedule
- several options to put clubs that cant meet in different (i,j,k) groups

Code: Select all

                                         A A A B B B C C C D D D
                                         i j k i j k i j k i j k

1. Ai-Ci Aj-Cj Ak-Ck Di-Bi Dj-Bj Dk-Bk   H H H A A A A A A H H H
2. Bi-Ai Bj-Aj Bk-Ak Ci-Di Cj-Dj Ck-Dk   A A A H H H H H H A A A
3. Ai-Bi Aj-Bj Ak-Bk Di-Ci Dj-Cj Dk-Ck   H H H A A A A A A H H H
4. Ci-Ai Cj-Aj Ck-Ak Bi-Di Bj-Dj Bk-Dk   A A A H H H H H H A A A
5. Ai-Aj Ak-Dk Dj-Di Bi-Bj Bk-Ck Cj-Ci   H A H H A H A H A A H A
6. Di-Ai Aj-Dj Dk-Ak Ci-Bi Bj-Cj Ck-Bk   A H A A H A H A H H A H
7. Ak-Ai Dj-Aj Di-Dk Bk-Bi Cj-Bj Ci-Ck   A A H A A H H H A H H A
8. Aj-Ak Ai-Di Dk-Dj Bj-Bk Bi-Ci Ck-Cj   H H A H H A A A H A A H

Conference League, 36 teams, 6 groups with random labels A-F and random spot 1-6

Schedule example:
- all intra-pot matches at the same day, and all matches between certain pots at the same day
- home/away strictly alternating for each club
- split each pot in two subgroups i and j based on intra-pot home-away matches
- several options to put clubs that can't meet in different (i,j) groups

Code: Select all

                                         A A B B C C D D E E F F
                                         i j i j i j i j i j i j

1. Aj-Bi Bj-Ai Cj-Di Dj-Ci Ej-Fi Fj-Ei   A H A H A H A H A H A H
2. Fi-Aj Ai-Fj Bi-Cj Ci-Bj Di-Ej Ei-Dj   H A H A H A H A H A H A
3. Aj-Ci Cj-Ai Ej-Bi Bj-Ei Dj-Fi Fj-Di   A H A H A H A H A H A H
4. Ai-Aj Bi-Bj Ci-Cj Di-Dj Ei-Ej Fi-Fj   H A H A H A H A H A H A
5. Aj-Di Dj-Ai Bj-Fi Fj-Bi Cj-Ei Ej-Ci   A H A H A H A H A H A H
6. Ei-Aj Ai-Ej Di-Bj Bi-Dj Fi-Cj Ci-Fj   H A H A H A H A H A H A

Since the schedule is stricly alternating between home and away, matchdays can be cycled up or down to move the intra-pot matches to another day