Spreadsheet for European Cups - Feedback & Suggestions

[bjkman1903]

The projected pots after Q3

Thanks @eye

If we beat Dynamo Kiev, Besiktas will likely end up in ECL Pot 3.

There may be a small chance for Pot 2, but it looks quite complicated as it will require many upsets.

BATE will be eliminated, there's a good chance Partizan will be eliminated too. Remove these 2 and Dynamo Kyiv, and you have Bodo, Genk in pot 2.
Now the difficult maths start, because you need 3 more out (so that Sparta, Astana and Besiktas climb to Pot 2), and no surprises in the EL PlayOffs (e.g. Aris not to eliminate Slovan).
One can be Legia eliminating Midtjylland, another can be Twente eliminating Fenerbahce.
Then you need a minimum of 1 bigger upset from e.g. Hearts or Adana or Tobol, and maybe more depending on the EL matches.

Astana could lose to Partizani too. There are too many options but It's not likely

It's not a big deal to be in Pot 3 in any case when you look at the potential opponents in Pot 2. Only Aston Villa and Fiorentina are the teams to avoid.

[Fotcalc]

I did simulations based on bookmaker odds and found out that Bodø/Glimt has 89% chance to get into pot 2.

It is not what you were looking for @bjkman1903, but it should give you an idea of your chances.

[bjkman1903]

I did simulations based on bookmaker odds and found out that Bodø/Glimt has 89% chance to get into pot 2.

It is not what you were looking for @bjkman1903, but it should give you an idea of your chances.

Yes, Bodo only need one upset (that even Besiktas can provide by defeating Dynamo Kiev )

I know that our chances to get to Pot 2 are very low, it's no big deal anyway.

[mitsaras]

Any projection using Elo ranking?

[Fotcalc]

There is one using betting odds here: https://twitter.com/tgloban/status/1692 ... 59333?s=20

[wannabeontop]

Is it possible to get the 24/25 preliminary spreadsheet a little bit earlier this season?

#wishfulthinking

[eye]

Is it possible to get the 24/25 preliminary spreadsheet a little bit earlier this season?

#wishfulthinking

Which spreadsheet do you mean ? If you mean the spreadsheet with the projections for nexts season's competition you can find it at this post viewtopic.php?p=552172#p552172

[eye]

A minor update to the spreadsheet finished today. There are 2 main changes.

The first one is rather simple and it has to do with the colors that are used at CL matches, EL matches and ECL matches tabs. The different color you see at the names of clubs indicates to which competitions the clubs are taking part after the outcome of the match (CL - Blue, EL - Purple, ECL - Red, Eliminated - color looks like Gold).

The second change is that at the above tabs you can see live standings of each group at the right of the Group matches results. I am not retrieving the live standings from any site but I am calculating them myself which means if there is any mistake it can be fixed but based on my tests normally there won't be. Although if you see something wrong at them inform me but I would need a screenshot of rankings with the live results of the group with wrong standings. If a screenshot is not possible I will need to know the current scores of the group matches you see at spreadsheet of the group that has wrong standing and the standings of course.

The main reason I added the live standings was to present live country and club rankings including the bonus points that clubs and countries are getting from group positions based on the live position at standings of each club. A second thought I had later was that this might be confusing so I kept it as it is now and bonus points will be award after the end of the last match of each group. Although if you believe it would be better include bonus points based on live position I can change it rather easily.

[Sagy]

@eye, first, thanks. Second, thank you. Third, much appreciated.

My suggestion, if possible, give the user the option if they want to see the bonus points “live” or only when after all the matches invoked have been concluded. As for myself, I would normally would not want to see the bonus points before they are “awarded”, but I can see myself once or twice a week playing the “what if” game and having the option to include the bonus points would be nice.

If I didn’t say it before - I can’t thank you enough for providing this spreadsheet.

[eye]

@eye, first, thanks. Second, thank you. Third, much appreciated.

My suggestion, if possible, give the user the option if they want to see the bonus points “live” or only when after all the matches invoked have been concluded. As for myself, I would normally would not want to see the bonus points before they are “awarded”, but I can see myself once or twice a week playing the “what if” game and having the option to include the bonus points would be nice.

If I didn’t say it before - I can’t thank you enough for providing this spreadsheet.

It can't have such option because the spreadsheet is common for everyone. If you change something this will have as result all the rest to see the spreadsheet based on your changes. My whole idea of awarding bonus points live is based on the whole philosophy of the spreadsheet which is to present the projected seedings for next season's competitions based on current situation of leagues, cups, european cups and current yearly country rankings. So it seems logical to me to award the bonus points based on current group rankings too but as I said this might be a bit confusing to many.till the end of group stage.

[Sagy]

Thanks. Too bad it can’t be customized, I fully understand your reason.

Given that and your explanation, I would lean towards awarding the bonus points based on the live results and hopefully after a week or two the confusion (which will initially be there) will subside.

[dyermcryan]

A new version of the spreadsheet spreadsheet is released today. The link is the same

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

This is absolutely brilliant mate, thank you so much.

A couple of small recommendations/questions:

1: Would it improve the spreadsheet if the Current Status page had the summer leagues vs winter leagues in different colours?

2: Are there any uefa bans for belarus clubs that are missing from the spreadsheet for 24/25 onwards?

[eye]

A new version of the spreadsheet spreadsheet is released today. The link is the same

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

This is absolutely brilliant mate, thank you so much.

A couple of small recommendations/questions:

1: Would it improve the spreadsheet if the Current Status page had the summer leagues vs winter leagues in different colours?

2: Are there any uefa bans for belarus clubs that are missing from the spreadsheet for 24/25 onwards?

1. There are 4 different colors for the status of each competitions and you can see what each color mean at the top (cells K1-K4). I could use one more color for the winter leagues but I don't think it really has much meaning since you can see the remaining matches of each league so it is obvious which are the winter leagues (the ones with few remaining matches). I prefer to avoid doing this since it doesn't actually add any special info to the competition status so you will just see these tables in green after 1-2 months when each of these league ends.

2. If I remember correctly Belarusian FA punished some clubs (points deduction for current season and no license for UEFA competitions for this season) and UEFA wasnt involved at all. Most likely when one or more of the punished clubs gets a spot for european competitions UEFA will ban them but I don't think any Belarusian club has currently any ban. Even if there is an active ban from UEFA to Belarusian clubs it still doesn't change anything at Current Status tab since all the involoved clubs are at the bottom places of league table and without chances for top 8

[Stadion]

@eye, thank you for your brilliant work as always.

Could you please help me understand the logic behind the current (adjusted) access list for UCL in the EC 24-25 file?

From my understanding (bear with me!):

1. It is assumed Man City will win CL and Liverpool will win UEL
2. This means the highest ranked champion (Shakhtar) and the highest ranked club in the UCL-qualifiers (Sporting CP?) moves up to CLGS
3. The European Performance Spots are awarded to Turkey and Belgium having the highest 1yr country coefficient at the time of writing
4. This means the Belgian N2 takes the Belgian CH spot in CLGS? And the Turkish N2 takes the Turkish CH spot in CLPO?
5. Meanwhile, the CLPO spot that Shakhtar left is awarded to the next highest ranked association - Czechia.
6. Now we have 29 spots taken up in the CLGS and..
7. 4 spots taken up in the CLPO (Serbia CH, Turkey N2 in lieu of CH, Swiss CH and Czech CH in lieu of Ukr CH)
8. As a total of 5 teams need to qualify to CLGS from CLPO, we need a total of 10 teams in the CLPO round
9. We already have 4, meaning 6 need to qualify from CLQ3 -- meaning we need a total of 12 teams in that round, and 24 teams in CLQ2
10. Originally 8 teams start in CLQ2 while 16 come in as winners from CLQ1. However Czech CH has been moved to CLPO (point 5 above) and Russia remain disqualified, so we only have 6 teams starting in this round.
11. This would mean 18 teams would have to qualify from CLQ1, but we only have 32 teams starting in that round. We could move two teams up from CLQ1 to start in CLQ2 to restore the 8 teams, but that means we only have 30 starting in CLQ1, leaving only 15 teams to qualify to CLQ1.
12. Hence we have to move up 4 teams from CLQ1 to start in CLQ2, which now has 10 teams -- while another 14 needs to qualify from CLQ1 (now having only 28 teams starting there).


Is this correct? If yes -- what prerequisites need to be true in order for 4x teams to move up from CLQ1 to CLQ2? Is it enough that the CL title holder qualifies via their domestic league?

What about if the European Performance Spots are awarded to English and German teams? Would that still have knock-on effects from the Champions Path qualifiers?

[eye]

@eye, thank you for your brilliant work as always.

Could you please help me understand the logic behind the current (adjusted) access list for UCL in the EC 24-25 file?

From my understanding (bear with me!):

1. It is assumed Man City will win CL and Liverpool will win UEL
2. This means the highest ranked champion (Shakhtar) and the highest ranked club in the UCL-qualifiers (Sporting CP?) moves up to CLGS
3. The European Performance Spots are awarded to Turkey and Belgium having the highest 1yr country coefficient at the time of writing
4. This means the Belgian N2 takes the Belgian CH spot in CLGS? And the Turkish N2 takes the Turkish CH spot in CLPO?
5. Meanwhile, the CLPO spot that Shakhtar left is awarded to the next highest ranked association - Czechia.
6. Now we have 29 spots taken up in the CLGS and..
7. 4 spots taken up in the CLPO (Serbia CH, Turkey N2 in lieu of CH, Swiss CH and Czech CH in lieu of Ukr CH)
8. As a total of 5 teams need to qualify to CLGS from CLPO, we need a total of 10 teams in the CLPO round
9. We already have 4, meaning 6 need to qualify from CLQ3 -- meaning we need a total of 12 teams in that round, and 24 teams in CLQ2
10. Originally 8 teams start in CLQ2 while 16 come in as winners from CLQ1. However Czech CH has been moved to CLPO (point 5 above) and Russia remain disqualified, so we only have 6 teams starting in this round.
11. This would mean 18 teams would have to qualify from CLQ1, but we only have 32 teams starting in that round. We could move two teams up from CLQ1 to start in CLQ2 to restore the 8 teams, but that means we only have 30 starting in CLQ1, leaving only 15 teams to qualify to CLQ1.
12. Hence we have to move up 4 teams from CLQ1 to start in CLQ2, which now has 10 teams -- while another 14 needs to qualify from CLQ1 (now having only 28 teams starting there).


Is this correct? If yes -- what prerequisites need to be true in order for 4x teams to move up from CLQ1 to CLQ2? Is it enough that the CL title holder qualifies via their domestic league?

What about if the European Performance Spots are awarded to English and German teams? Would that still have knock-on effects from the Champions Path qualifiers?

All the 12 points you stated are correct. Only at point 2 there is a minnor mistake cause it is Porto currently the club that is second at Portugal (probably was Sporting the moment you wrote it).

As to how many clubs are moving from CLQ1 to CLQ2 there are plenty of combinations depending on how many clubs are missing from qualifiers. The reasons we some clubs that might be missing are 3.

1. Club moved to GS to fill a spot that is empty because CL-TH and/or EL-TH qualified domestically.
2. Club won CL or EL but the country of the club had not direct GS spot.
3. The country of the club is banned.

It also depends at which qualifying round the missing club was supposed to start. For example the missing Russian club was supposed to start at Q2 so we need to promote 2 clubs from Q1 to Q2 but if Russia was ranked lower and the club was supposed to start at Q1 then we would need to promote only 1 club. Generally you promote 2 clubs from Q1 to Q2 if missing club was supposed to start at Q2 or PO and 1 club if the club was supposed to start at Q1.

Although if you want to create any kind of software it is easier to calculate all these working backwards. We need 24 clubs at Q2 and 4 at PO and we have 42 clubs at qualifiers at the example of your 12 points above. This means we need to eliminate 42-24-4=14 clubs at Q1 therefore we will have 14 pairs at Q1. So the clubs of top 4 ranked countries of these 42 clubs will start at PO, the clubs of 28 lower ranked countries of the 42 clubs will start at Q1 and the rest at Q2.

As to the other question about the EPS. Nothing will change except that England and Germany will have 5 clubs at GS and Belgium and Turkey their normal spots.