Battle for important ranking positions 2023-24

[eye]

The chances of countries to finish at top2 of season at the remaining 50.031.545.098.999.707 possible outcomes of the last 35 matches at the table below



Germany cannot finish and 2nd place of 5 years ranking anymore and has less than 0.01% to finish at 3rd

[Tazmania]

Czechia surpass Scotland in the all-important 10th place in the 5-year ranking thanks to Plzen's 0-0 ECL QF L1 result at home to Fiorentina!

[Firnen]

Direct CL spot for the Czech Republic!

Germany retakes the lead from England for the extra CL spot and with Liverpool and West Ham heading out, England's hopes probably come down to Arsenal in Munich, otherwise no matter what City does, Leverkusen will match it and Bayern will match/surpass Aston Villa.

[matt]

Worrying results for England tonight, Arsenal and Aston Villa have to step up. Ironically enough, Aston Villa are 5th right now, so they have an extra motivation to win the ECL.
For Borussia Dortmund it's a similar thing, as they are 5th in the Bundesliga and with a realistic chance to advance again and bring "home" points for Germany.

I'm curious to see Nogomet-posted stats tomorrow. It must be much closer to 50%-50% between Eng and Ger.

I'm not completely ruling out Liverpool yet though.

[babaluj1]

Worrying results for England tonight, Arsenal and Aston Villa have to step up. Ironically enough, Aston Villa are 5th right now, so they have an extra motivation to win the ECL.
For Borussia Dortmund it's a similar thing, as they are 5th in the Bundesliga and with a realistic chance to advance again and bring "home" points for Germany.

I'm curious to see Nogomet-posted stats tomorrow. It must be much closer to 50%-50% between Eng and Ger.

I'm not completely ruling out Liverpool yet though.

English clubs have dominated the last three seasons, but this season they are visibly in decline. Atalanta convincingly outclassed Liverpool and that is the biggest surprise of the day. As expected, Bayer defeated West Ham and England's chances for the second place in the Country ranking drop drastically. They still have a slight advantage over Germany because they have two more games in return, but that could change already next week. Quite simply, Premier League clubs are not performing well this season.

[Sagy]

This year shows that a country needs a “deep bench” in order to do well in EPS. Spain has 3 of the top 5 teams right now and is basically out of the race for top two. On the other hand, Italy is almost assured of top two finish without a team in the top 7.

[eye]

Probabilities for EPS race and country ranking when each of the 7.625.597.484.987 possible outcomes has same chance to come

[elkjiaer is back]

After an exciting night of football in the #UEL & #UECL Germany is back in the race at the expenses of England
Current probabilities to get an additional Champions League spot next season:
Ita 99,9% (1.7%)
Eng 60.3% (24.1%)
Ger 39.6% ( 22.5%)
Fra 0.2% ( 0.2%)

All those are based on simulations using clubelo ratings. Opta simulations just posted online are very similar to mine

[nogomet]

[nogomet]

[eye]

Most of numbers are similar. The ones I posted doesn't take account the strength of clubs so the difference in the % of the other predictions is cause of this. I would disagree with the 0.4 for France from Opta which is more than double chances than the 0.16 I got cause I don't think French clubs are actually favourites at any of their ties.

[seso]

Very nice eye and nogomet, thank you!

[amirbachar]

Most of numbers are similar. The ones I posted doesn't take account the strength of clubs so the difference in the % of the other predictions is cause of this. I would disagree with the 0.4 for France from Opta which is more than double chances than the 0.16 I got cause I don't think French clubs are actually favourites at any of their ties.

How can intuitively differentiate between 0.16% to 0.4%? A small change in the draw probability would do that...

[Firnen]

This year shows that a country needs a “deep bench” in order to do well in EPS. Spain has 3 of the top 5 teams right now and is basically out of the race for top two. On the other hand, Italy is almost assured of top two finish without a team in the top 7.

Spain is out because a relegation level team won the EL last year, played in CL Groups, got 0-2-4 and caused Spain to divide by 8 instead of 7.
Osasuna's August elimination was the cherry on top.
Next year the conditions change because of no more transfer from CL to EL and EL to ECL, and a completely different bonus points system.

[eye]

Most of numbers are similar. The ones I posted doesn't take account the strength of clubs so the difference in the % of the other predictions is cause of this. I would disagree with the 0.4 for France from Opta which is more than double chances than the 0.16 I got cause I don't think French clubs are actually favourites at any of their ties.

How can intuitively differentiate between 0.16% to 0.4%? A small change in the draw probability would do that...

As numbers 0.16 and 0.40 are close but as an increase 0.40 is 2.5 times higher than 0.16 so the change is not small. The 0.16 of my calculation is based on that each result (home win, away win, draw) has same probability at each match at each round. Since France is currently far away from 2nd place and it requires at least 2 French clubs to qualify to SFs I don't think after the results of first legs that 2 French clubs have much higher chances than their opponents to have such increase. I was expecting a similar to mine number and most likely a bit lower