Battle for important ranking positions 2023-24

[matt]

Battle to avoid the last 5 places (one club less in Europe).

The table before the start of the qualifiers:

48 - Albania 5.250
49 - Wales 5.166
50 - Belarus 4.875
...............
51 - Gibraltar 4.791
52 - North Macedonia 4.500
53 - Montenegro 4.375
54 - Andorra 4.332
55 - San Marino 1.499


I exclude San Marino from the analysis. I'm sorry, neighbours.


ALBANIA

Partizani - Bate
Aris - Partizani (if they win against Bate)
Atletic Escaldes / Buducnost - Partizani (if they lose against Bate)

Ararat Armenia - Egnatia (the winner will face Aris)
Tirana - Dinamo Batumi (Besiktas)
Linfield - Vllaznia (Pogon Szczecin)

Partizani were really lucky. They have a great opportunity to defeat Bate. If they do, they will have three oppotunity to get a group stage spot. If they lose against Bate, they should win in the ELCQ2. No excuses to exit early.
The ECL teams have all balanced ties in the first round, but for everyone the ECLQ2 round looks the maximum they can achieve.
Partizani is obviously the key for Albania. If they perform well Albania will be safe.


WALES

Hacken - The New Saints
Klaksvik / Ferencvaros - The New Saints (if they defeat Hacken)
The New Saints - Slovan Bratislava / Hesperange (if they lose against Hacken)

Penybont - FC Santa Coloma (Sutjeska - Cosmos)
Shkendija - Haverfordwest County (B36 Torshavn - Paide)
KA - Connah's Quay Nomads (Dundalk - Magpies)

The New Saints were really unlucky in the CL draw. Close to zero chances against Hacken over two legs, they might face Hesperange in the ECLQ2. The teams from Luxembourg made good things, better than Welsh team, so i'd bet on Hesperange, but it should be close.

Penybont got lucky, they have a good chance to progress not only to the ECLQ2, but also to the ECLQ3
The big problem for Wales is that if Penybont perform badly, Sutjeska from Montenegro might earn many precious points instead of them.
Connah's Quay won't meet big names, but i rate the Irish and the Iceland league above than the Welsh one. Connah's is not new to getting good and unexpected results in Europe though.
Haverfordwest against Shkendija is a good opportunity for...Shkendija. This Welsh team arrived 7th in a league of 12 teams, then won two penalty kicks and magically are here. I'm not optimistic about them. Once again Wales will either win or lose points against a direct competitor.

All in all i would not bet on Wales avoiding the last five places of the ranking. Prove me wrong, guys!



BELARUS

Partizani - Bate
Aris - Bate (if they win against Partizani)
Athletic Escaldes / Buducnost - Bate (if they lose against Partizani)

Vaduz - Neman (Balzan - Domzale)
Zeljeznicar - Dinamo Minsk (Neftci)
Zhodino - AEK Larnaca

The big question mark is Bate, a team which ended 3rd in the league last season and now are effectively 5th. It's the last time they can use a good seeding status. Will they play both games in Albania to save money? If they lose against Partizani they should face a team from Andorra, so in a way or in the other way they should win at least a tie, but the group stages are far, probably too far, despite two good days in the draws.

Neman and Zhodino are doing good in the league, but they can't play at home and the opponents comes from better leagues, so it will be difficult for them.
Dinamo Minsk defeated Decic last season, Zeljeznicar look already one step further, but it should be a balanced tie. Neftchi if they progress, could be worse, but again, not playing at home and a declining league are two big factors against Belarus. It's close, i don't dare to do a prediction if they will avoid the last five places or not.


I will complete the analysis tomorrow. Four countries left.

Oh, fuck it. I had almost finished my analysis, then i lost my internet connection and all of my "work"

I won't rewrite all again, i'll just leave a short resume.

Basically, Gibraltar have no chance unless Lincoln perform a miracle, Andorra with a good draw but surely not enough to put behind them five countries.
Macedonia and Montenegro have the potential to recover ground. Will it be enough to overcome Wales and Belarus?

[matt]

I re-write only this small part: "Even a team that can scare children at Halloween with his european record like Sutjeska this time can earn a lot of points for Montenegro" (divided by 3).


After all of this i can't run away from making a (risky) prediction:

48 - Albania
49 - Montenegro
50 - North Macedonia
‐------------------------
51 - Belarus
52 - Wales
53 - Gibraltar
54 - Andorra
55 - San Marino

[krisfrompoland]

We have 2 ranking-neighbours clashes in the most interesting battle for 15:
PAOK - Beitar
Bobo/Glimt - Bohemians

Winning these ties may have huge impact at the and of the season. It is also very probable that Denmark will lose a team and quite possible for Turkey and Ukraine to lose it.

Worth noting though that Bohemians is Czechia's weak team and Bodo is Norway's strongest, so for the Czechs it wouldn't be really painful to lose Bohemians, while for Norway it would be a disaster to lose Bodo in ECLQ2.
Similar for Israel, Beitar is the weakest of the 4, it's not like they expected from them to make Groups, while for Greece who starts with a big gap to the top 15, PAOK making the ECL Groups is crucial.

And that's why these matches are so important. If PAOK and Bodo/Glimt are out then Greece and Norway are in big trouble (especially Norway). Also Bohemians and Beitar would get their seeding position in 3rd round and have a good chance to be in 4th round meanwhile gaining some sweet points.

We are at the beginning of the season so these are small details which theoretically have no meaning now... but if Viking would have win in Prague instead of drawing last season then Norway would be 15th in the ranking at the of the season.

[Firnen]

We have 2 ranking-neighbours clashes in the most interesting battle for 15:
PAOK - Beitar
Bobo/Glimt - Bohemians

Winning these ties may have huge impact at the and of the season. It is also very probable that Denmark will lose a team and quite possible for Turkey and Ukraine to lose it.

Worth noting though that Bohemians is Czechia's weak team and Bodo is Norway's strongest, so for the Czechs it wouldn't be really painful to lose Bohemians, while for Norway it would be a disaster to lose Bodo in ECLQ2.
Similar for Israel, Beitar is the weakest of the 4, it's not like they expected from them to make Groups, while for Greece who starts with a big gap to the top 15, PAOK making the ECL Groups is crucial.

And that's why these matches are so important. If PAOK and Bodo/Glimt are out then Greece and Norway are in big trouble (especially Norway). Also Bohemians and Beitar would get their seeding position in 3rd round and have a good chance to be in 4th round meanwhile gaining some sweet points.

We are at the beginning of the season so these are small details which theoretically have no meaning now... but if Viking would have win in Prague instead of drawing last season then Norway would be 15th in the ranking at the of the season.

Norway's failure was mostly on Molde crashing and burning in the ECL Group (while winning the league in Norway!) and Bodo getting eliminated by Lech Poznan. Viking eliminating Sparta was an upset already.

I get what you say, but these 2 ties are not "winner takes it all" ones. If e.g. Slavia Prague faces Bodo Glimt in ECL Play-Offs, that's a do-or-die for example.

[OlliWender]

So after the first two rounds of draws done, which "new" countries do you guys think will be able to reach the group stages?

This is the list of countries that haven't made the group stage in the last 2 seasons (since the ECL extension):

Northern Ireland*
Bosnia and Hercegovina*
Faroe Islands*
Malta*
Georgia
Luxembourg
Iceland*
Albania
Wales*
Belarus
North Macedonia
Montenegro*
Andorra*
San Marino*

(*never made any group stage before)

[Firnen]

From the ones that have never made the Group Stage, I see decent chances for:

Bosnia and Herzegovina

As usually, but they are usually bottlers. If Zrinjski makes it to CLQ2, they will have 3 shots.

Iceland

Breidablik can beat Buducnost and Shamrock Rovers for me, and reach the same "3-shot" point of CLQ2.

[Fotcalc]

This will be their last chance to do so. At least for some years.

[matt]

This will be their last chance to do so. At least for some years.

Why?

[Fotcalc]

Because group stage will be replaced by league phase.

[matt]

Because group stage will be replaced by league phase.

Ah, in that sense yes. I will still consider it a group, a very big group

[dnina10]

Hey everyone. As today marks the first day of action in the UEFA Champions League, I am going to leave here the work I have done over the past 2-3 weeks. This is a comprehensive preview of all the coefficient battles for the 2023/24 season. I imagine there will be many different thoughts and opinions on this. Some will agree, others not so much. One thing that is for sure: this will all be settled on the pitch. Below you will find multiple links to my work.

Top 50 battle: https://extratimetalk.com/uefa-coeffici ... p-50-spot/

Top 33-38 battle: https://extratimetalk.com/uefa-coeffici ... -38-spots/

Top 22 battle: https://extratimetalk.com/uefa-coeffici ... or-top-22/

Top 15 battle: https://extratimetalk.com/uefa-coeffici ... 15th-spot/

Top 10/12 battle: https://extratimetalk.com/uefa-coeffici ... s-9-to-12/

Top 5 battle: https://extratimetalk.com/uefa-coeffici ... for-fifth/

Top 2 single year battle: https://extratimetalk.com/uefa-coeffici ... ng-battle/

Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/dpnina10/status/167 ... 39073?s=20

[wannabeontop]

Hacken-FTC should be interesting for the 22nd place.

[dnina10]

The first coefficient points of the season (match points) go to Montenegro, putting them on the precipice of climbing out of the bottom five by week's end

[Firnen]

And the second 0.333 of the season goes expectedly to Iceland, bringing them one win behind Georgia and Luxembourg.

[Stadion]

Hacken-FTC should be interesting for the 22nd place.

Isn't the tournament these two respective teams end up playing in a bigger decider, rather than the head-to-head result in CLQ2? If Hacken ends up in ECL and Ferencvaros in EL, it's very possible that Hacken will walk away with more points to the country coefficient, even if Ferencvaros win the CLQ2 tie?