AFC Nations Ecosystem Ranking

[Kamtedrejt]

Failure for the 2026 cycle is no option for Qatar. They HAVE TO qualify for the 2026 World Cup in light of the expansion to 48 teams.

Even though exiting with 0 points at a World Cup on home soil was humilating you could still give them a pass given they were debutants.

Reasons why failure is no option for Qatar in WCQ:

- High FIFA ranking means they might get away with facing only one powerhouse in round three

- All the money they invested in their program in the last decade

- Got ample exposure by playing in various major tournaments

- Asian Cup 2023 hosts. By that comes the responsability to keep working hard and not get stuck in a rut

[Kamtedrejt]

Jordan__________________________7.0

Record against +1500 points opposition in the ELO Ratings

7 Wins
2 Draws
11 Losses

Ø points of these opponents was 1633.75



Two wins against highest rated opponents in ELO in a competitive match:

06/01/2019______________________1-0 win over Australia (1735 pts) at the 2019 Asian Cup


10/01/2019______________________2-0 win over Syria (1584 pts) at the 2019 Asian Cup



Win against highest rated opponent in ELO in a friendly:

07/09/2021_______________________2-1 win over Bahrain (1582 pts) on the road


Jordan are playing now with a good form. However one must be cautious as they've been playing with the exception of the 2021 Arab Cup only friendlies lately. Jordan topped their group at the 2019 Asian Cup over Australia but got stuck against Vietnam in the Round of 16 when they lost on penalties. World Cup qualifying was a major letdown. Losses to Australia home and away were maybe forgiveable but two draws against Kuwait were certainly not what "Al Nashama" expected. Jordan finished that group in WCQ only in third due to worse goal differential. Jordan parted ways with the Belgian manager Vital Borkelmans. Adnan Hamad who coached them to an appearance in the intercontinental playoffs against Uruguay in 2009 was brought back. At the 2021 Arab Cup Jordan were knocked out in the quarterfinals when they lost 3-1 to Egypt in extratime. However they suffered a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of 'Morocco B' in the group stage. That might be reason for concern. Since Hamad has taken over Jordan have been doing exceptionally well in friendlies. Two wins over Bahrain, and a win apiece against Kosovo, Uzbekistan, New Zealand and Oman were notable results.
On the eve of the World Cup Jordan played Spain which resulted in a 3-1 loss.

[Kamtedrejt]

China__________________________6.0

Record against +1500 points opposition in the ELO Ratings

0 Wins
4 Draws
9 Losses

Ø points of these opponents was 1659.77



Two wins against highest rated opponents in ELO in a competitive match:

15/06/2021______________________3-1 win over Syria (1478 pts) on neutral ground in WCQ


07/10/2021______________________3-2 win over Vietnam (1400 pts) on neutral ground in WCQ



Win against highest rated opponent in ELO in a friendly:

11/06/2019______________________1-0 win over Tajikistan (1204 pts) at home


China are in pretty average form. At the 2019 Asian Cup they made it to the quarterfinals where they were comfortably beaten by Iran (3:0 loss). World Cup qualifying was ok. They made it to the final round. Their best result was a 3-1 win over Syria in the second round of WCQ. In the final round they were only able to defeat Vietnam once and finished second to bottom in their group. Noteworthy is China's bad record against teams with a decent ELO Rating (>1500 points). They couldn't register a single win in 13 attempts. But one must bear in mind that China played all their home matches in the final round of WCQ on neutral ground. China didn't play many friendlies either. A win over lowly rated Tajikistan is the best they obtained. In March they played New Zealand twice on the road which finished in a 0-0 draw and a 2-1 loss respectively.

[Kamtedrejt]

Bahrain__________________________7.0

Record against +1500 points opposition in the ELO Ratings

4 Wins
7 Draws
5 Losses

Ø points of these opponents was 1650.12



Two wins against highest rated opponents in ELO in a competitive match:

15/10/2019______________________1-0 win over Iran (1800 pts) at home in WCQ


14/08/2019______________________1-0 win over Iraq (1597 pts) on the road at the 2019 WAFF Championship



Win against highest rated opponent in ELO in a friendly:

01/02/2022______________________1-0 win over DR Congo (1514 pts) at home


Bahrain's form hasn't been consistent. While I'd give them a score of 7.5 for the period starting the 2019 Asian Cup up until summer 2021 I'd give them only a score of 6.5 for the period after their World Cup qualfying campaign came to an end. So that makes me giving them still a good score of 7.0 for national team form. At the 2019 Asian Cup Bahrain exited in the Round of 16 losing 2-1 after extratime to South Korea. Highlights of their strong 2019-2021 period were two trophies they won. They won first the West Asian Championship (WAFF tournament). It's a rather lowly rated tournament in the region but regardless of that they managed to defeat hosts Iraq 1-0 in the final. An arguably bigger feat was achieved at the 2019 Gulf Cup. They lifted the trophy in Qatar in what saw a full-strength Qatar team who just came off the back of their triumph at the 2019 Asian Cup plus a full-strength Saudi Arabia participating. They defeated the latter 1-0 in the final. At the 2023 Golf Cup Bahrain got knocked out by Oman (1-0 loss) in the semi-finals. World Cup qualfying saw Bahrain caming just short. They finished third in their group but showed great resilence against Iran and Iraq.
While Bahrain's record against teams with a decent ELO Rating (>1500 points) was 3-6-1 until summer 2021 it's 1-1-4 for the period post summer 2021 (after their World Cup hopes came to an end). At the 2021 Arab Cup Bahrain exited in group play scoring not a single goal in the process. Best results in friendlies include wins over DR Congo and the UAE such as a 1-1 draw in Ukraine.
Reason for concern might be a 5-1 loss to Serbia on the eve of the World Cup.

[Kamtedrejt]

Vietnam_________________________6.0

Record against +1500 points opposition in the ELO Ratings

0 Wins
2 Draws
10 Losses

Ø points of these opponents was 1670.75



Two wins against highest rated opponents in ELO in a competitive match:

01/02/2022______________________3-1 win over China (1496 pts) at home in WCQ

14/11/2019______________________1-0 win over the UAE (1481 pts) at home in WCQ



Win against highest rated opponent in ELO in a friendly:

05/06/2019_______________________1-0 win over Thailand (1369 pts) on the road


Vietnam are a nation on the rise. I rate their form with a score of 6.0. At the 2019 Asian Cup Vietnam raised a few eyebrows when they reached the quarterfinals. They put on a decent showing there in a 1-0 loss to Japan. Their upward trend continued in World Cup qualfying. They made it out of a tricky group containing the UAE and Thailand beating the UAE at home in the process. In the final round of WCQ however they were out of their depth and finished bottom of their group with just one win. In regional tournaments Vietnam have enjoyed mild success. They couldn't win any of the last two editions of the AFF Championship, losing out on both occasions to Thailand in the semi-finals and in the final respectively. Interestingly, Vietnam couldn't win any of the last six competitive outings against Thailand. Best results in friendlies include wins over Thailand and India and a draw against Jordan.

[Kamtedrejt]

Thailand_________________________6.0

Record against +1500 points opposition in the ELO Ratings

3 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses

Ø points of these opponents was 1582.86



Two wins against highest rated opponents in ELO in a competitive match:

15/10/2019______________________2-1 win over the UAE (1504 pts) at home in WCQ

10/01/2019______________________1-0 win over Bahrain (1441 pts) at the 2019 Asian Cup



Win against highest rated opponent in ELO in a friendly:

21/03/2019_______________________1-0 win over China (1521 pts) on the road


Thailand are in a decent form. At the 2019 Asian Cup they made it to the Round of 16 where they lost 2-1 to China. They had a disastrous campaign in World Cup qualfying which saw them finishing fourth in a group that had the UAE and Vietnam. A managerial change helped Thailand to get back on track. Under Alexandre Pölking they are playing good football. He delivered them two trophies at the AFF Championship. If Thailand's stature as the best side in the ASEAN region was ever in limbo that has been put to bed. Best results in friendlies were wins over China, Trinidad & Tobago and Suriname.

[Kamtedrejt]

North Korea_________________________5.0

Record against +1500 points opposition in the ELO Ratings

0 Wins
1 Draw
4 Losses

Ø points of these opponents was 1610.60



Two wins against highest rated opponents in ELO in a competitive match:

05/09/2019______________________2-0 win over Lebanon (1420 pts) at home in WCQ

10/09/2019______________________1-0 win over the Sri Lanka (677 pts) on the road in WCQ



Win against highest rated opponent in ELO in a friendly:

15/07/2019_______________________1-0 win over Tajikistan (1272 pts) on neutral ground


It's literally impossible to gauge North Korea's from. They haven't played an A international since November 2019 wich was a 0-0 draw at Lebanon. At the 2019 Asian Cup North Korea were a train wreck losing all three matches and conceding 14 goals in the process. They had the worst record of all 24 nations at the tournament. In World Cup qualifying they were doing alright but decided to pull out of the qualifiers without stating officially the reason for that.
It will be interesting to see how North Korea will look like when they'll play their first match in November after a long spell of four years where they didn't play any matches.

[Kamtedrejt]

Oman____________________________7.0

Record against +1500 points opposition in the ELO Ratings

3 Wins
7 Draws
14 Losses

Ø points of these opponents was 1647.67



Two wins against highest rated opponents in ELO in a competitive match:

02/09/2019______________________1-0 win over Japan(1771 pts) on the road in WCQ

06/12/2021______________________3-0 win over Bahrain (1543 pts) at the 2021 Arab Cup



Win against highest rated opponent in ELO in a friendly:

20/11/2022_______________________2-0 win over Belarus (1425 pts) at home


Oman have been in in consistent and relatively fine form. At the 2019 Asian Cup they exited in the Round of 16 by losing 2-0 to Iran. In World Cup qualifying their moment came on the first matchday of the final round when they defeated Japan on the road sending shock waves to the whole world.
In the end they finished fourth of their group only one point short of Australia who went on to qualify for the World Cup by the intercontinental playoff. Despite Oman having a score of 7.0 for national team form their form against decently rated nations is something where they must improve on if they want to make it to the 2026 World Cup. What speaks for them is the fact that they've got with 24 matches against teams with >1500 points in the ELO Ratings ample exposure in this period. At the 2021 Arab Cup Oman were knocked out by Tunisia in the quarterfinals losing to them 2-1. At the 2019 Gulf Cup they didn't got passed the group stage, at the 2023 edition they finished runners-up losing in a dramatic fashion 3-2 to hosts Iraq after extra time. Best results in friendlies include wins over Belarus, Lebanon and Thailand as well as draws against New Zealand and Iraq.
On the eve of the World Cup they played Germany very close in a 1-0 loss.

[Kamtedrejt]

AFC Nations Ecosystem Ranking

.
.
.

16. Oman_____________4.95
NT Form___________________7.0
Youth______________________1.5
Pedigree___________________4.5
Club success_______________2.5

Oman are for my money apart from the five powerhouses favourites to snatch a spot for the 2026 World Cup. I was very impressed when I watched them. I would put them on current form tied for the fifth best national team in the AFC together with Saudi Arabia.

Oman are also in the list of teams for me who can contend for a semi-final finish at the upcoming Asian Cup.

This is definately a nation on the rise. We should track their progress going forward.

[Kamtedrejt]

Syria__________________________5.5

Record against +1500 points opposition in the ELO Ratings

3 Wins
3 Draws
15 Losses

Ø points of these opponents was 1650.38



Two wins against highest rated opponents in ELO in a competitive match:

03/12/2021______________________2-0 win over Tunisia (1656 pts) at the 2021 Arab Cup


14/11/2019______________________2-1 win over China (1481 pts) on neutral ground in WCQ



Win against highest rated opponent in ELO in a friendly:

12/11/2020______________________1-0 win over Uzbekistan (1570 pts) on neutral ground


Syria's form has been trending downward. At the 2019 Asian Cup they exited as a frequently cited dark horse in the group stage. In World Cup qualifying they had no problems to get to the final round. In the final round however they picked up only 6 points in 10 matches finishing fifth in their group among six teams. The 2021 Arab Cup was very weird as Syria beat a highly ranked side in Tunisia but suffered losses to the UAE and to Mauritania. Especially the loss against the latter was a shock. Thus Syria were knocked out in group play. 2022 in general was a very underwhelming year that saw Syria losing six consecutive matches. The bad run of results was stopped in March when they beat Thailand 3-1. Best results in friendlies include wins over Uzbekistan and Jordan and a draw to the UAE.

[Kamtedrejt]

Palestine_________________________5.0

Record against +1500 points opposition in the ELO Ratings

2 Wins
2 Draws
5 Losses

Ø points of these opponents was 1579.11




Two wins against highest rated opponents in ELO in a competitive match:

05/09/2019______________________2-0 win over Uzbekistan (1624 pts) at home in WCQ


11/08/2019______________________4-3 win over Syria (1462 pts) on neutral ground at the 2019 WAFF Championship




Win against highest rated opponent in ELO in a friendly:



25/03/2023______________________2-1 win over Bahrain (1511 pts) on the road


Palestine have been doing well for themselves. At the 2019 Asian Cup they were knocked out in group play but picked up at least two draws against Jordan and Syria finishing above Syria eventually. In World Cup qualifying their recorded a huge win over Uzbekistan playing a major part in why Uzbekistan missed out on the final round of the World Cup qualifiers for the forst time in their history. They finished third in their group eventually with 10 points in 8 matches. Their away performance though was poor, losing all four matches on the road scoring only a single goal in the process.
At the West Asian Championship they beat Syria. However that competition isn't rated highly in the region. At the 2021 Arab Cup Palestine succumbed to two heavy defeats picking up only one point exiting in the group stage. Palestine didn't play many friendlies. Best results in friendlies include wins over Bahrain and Kuwait.

[Jackson Harrison]

My ranking of AFC nations who I think could make FIFA World Cup 26:
1. Korea Republic
2. Japan
3. Saudi Arabia
4. Australia
5. Islamic Republic of Iran
6. Qatar
7. United Arab Emirates
8. Iraq
9. Uzbekistan
10. China PR
11. Lebanon
12. Oman
13. Indonesia
14. DPR Korea
15. India
16. Jordan
17. Syria
18. Vietnam

[Kamtedrejt]

My ranking of AFC nations who I think could make FIFA World Cup 26:
1. Korea Republic
2. Japan
3. Saudi Arabia
4. Australia
5. Islamic Republic of Iran
6. Qatar
7. United Arab Emirates
8. Iraq
9. Uzbekistan
10. China PR
11. Lebanon
12. Oman
13. Indonesia
14. DPR Korea
15. India
16. Jordan
17. Syria
18. Vietnam

Thanks for your opinion. As always I'm happy when people engage.

[Kamtedrejt]

AFC Nations Ecosystem Ranking

Nation_____________________Grade


1. Japan______________9.90
NT Form___________________10
Youth______________________9.5
Pedigree___________________10
Club success_______________10

2. South Korea________9.30
NT Form___________________9.0
Youth______________________10
Pedigree___________________9.0
Club success_______________10

3. Australia____________8.15
NT Form___________________8.5
Youth______________________8.0
Pedigree___________________9.0
Club success_______________5.0

4. Iran________________8.00
NT Form___________________8.5
Youth______________________6.5
Pedigree___________________8.0
Club success_______________8.5

5. Saudi Arabia________8.00
NT Form___________________8.0
Youth______________________8.5
Pedigree___________________6.5
Club success_______________10

6. Qatar______________7.05
NT Form___________________7.5
Youth______________________7.0
Pedigree___________________6.0
Club success_______________7.0

7. Iraq________________6.95
NT Form___________________7.0
Youth______________________8.5
Pedigree___________________6.5
Club success_______________4.5

8. Uzbekistan_________6.90
NT Form___________________6.5
Youth______________________9.5
Pedigree___________________6.0
Club success_______________5.5

9. UAE________________6.40
NT Form___________________6.5
Youth______________________7.0
Pedigree___________________5.5
Club success_______________6.5

10. Jordan____________6.30
NT Form___________________7.0
Youth______________________6.5
Pedigree___________________5.5
Club success_______________4.0

11. China_____________5.95
NT Form___________________6.0
Youth______________________5.5
Pedigree___________________5.5
Club success_______________7.5

12. Bahrain___________5.50
NT Form___________________7.0
Youth______________________2.5
Pedigree___________________5.5
Club success_______________4.0

13. Vietnam__________5.40
NT Form___________________6.0
Youth______________________7.0
Pedigree___________________4.0
Club success_______________2.0

Actually my prediction for the top 12 finishing teams in AFC WCQ ressembles perfectly my AFC Ecosystem Ranking created back in April.

I just kicked out China (in 11th) and brought in Vietnam (in 13th) because I see a higher ceiling for Vietnam in the mid-term.

[Kamtedrejt]

My ranking of AFC nations who I think could make FIFA World Cup 26:
1. Korea Republic
2. Japan
3. Saudi Arabia
4. Australia
5. Islamic Republic of Iran
6. Qatar
7. United Arab Emirates
8. Iraq
9. Uzbekistan
10. China PR
11. Lebanon
12. Oman
13. Indonesia
14. DPR Korea
15. India
16. Jordan
17. Syria
18. Vietnam

At second glance not a ranking I can agree with but everybody is entitled to his opinion.

Still wanna undermine Bahrain?

Did you see my post regarding Bahrain in another thread? I think you are doing a huge mistake by not taking them seriosuly. They are as good as anyone in your top 10 bar the top 5 obviously. Putting nations like Lebanon, Indonesia, DPR Korea and India this highly while putting Jordan and Vietnam so lowly and excluding Bahrain is very very questionable to say the least.

Mate, I think you should better stick to women's football where you seem to have a very good grasp and leave the AFC coverage to me.