German Football 2023-24

[BurningStorm]

90+7: Leverkusen avoiding the first defeat of the season (again), crazy!

Good that they didn't lose, so the "we are untouchable" self-confidence is still there when they travel to Rome.

These scenarios become seriously unreal. 1, 2 times OK, now that's how many? The 10th time this season?

It was always deserved, but yeah it's crazy and unreal. One reason is of course the quality they bring in during the 2nd half, after resting them a bit for the EL. The opponent is tired and then they can bring in the likes of Wirtz and Boniface. And it seems like Alonso gave them the mentality of Liverpool's CL final comeback against Milan after 0:3.

[matt]

What kind of Black Magic is this? They will win nothing for the next 500 years after the treble of 2023/24

[Phocea]

90+7: Leverkusen avoiding the first defeat of the season (again), crazy!

Good that they didn't lose, so the "we are untouchable" self-confidence is still there when they travel to Rome.

These scenarios become seriously unreal. 1, 2 times OK, now that's how many? The 10th time this season?

It was always deserved, but yeah it's crazy and unreal. One reason is of course the quality they bring in during the 2nd half, after resting them a bit for the EL. The opponent is tired and then they can bring in the likes of Wirtz and Boniface. And it seems like Alonso gave them the mentality of Liverpool's CL final comeback against Milan after 0:3.

I note that if OM miraculously qualify to the final : we have to wait for the penalty shoot out by any means necessary. The invincibility glitch will then not technically be used.

[Lorric]

Kane meanwhile scored both goals in the 2-1 win over Frankfurt. He's at 35 now, so he'd need 7 in 3 games to break the record. Improbable, but you never know.

As for Leverkusen, it's like they're doing it on purpose at this point.

[BurningStorm]

With this draw, Leverkusen missed one new record: they can not reach the most points by a Bundesliga team in one season anymore. The maximum would be 90 points now, Bayern's record was 91 points in the treble season 12/13 under Heynckes. But the first ever unbeaten season is still possible and that's what they want now, besides the trophy wins in EL and German cup of course.

I note that if OM miraculously qualify to the final : we have to wait for the penalty shoot out by any means necessary. The invincibility glitch will then not technically be used.

True. Maybe it happens already against Roma after a draw in both legs. I hope they won't destroy Bayer's game with bus parking and time wasting like a year ago. This Leverkusen need to be in the final.

[Firnen]

Heidenheim has a historic chance for Europe (8th place), they face Mainz and Koln at home while Hoffenheim and Augsburg have a really tough schedule!

Big chance for Werder Bremen too!

[ultra2013]

Leverkusen dreamed season can end undefeated in three competitions.
Nine months undefeated. August, September, October, November, December, January, February, March, April.
Just seven games more in the tenth month would complete such an achievement.

5/2 Roma (A)
5/5 Frankfurt (H)
5/9 Roma (H)
5/12 Bochum (A)
5/18 Augsburg (H)
5/22 UEL final (N)
5/25 Kaiserslautern (N)

[ultra2013]

It's very likely Bundesliga will send 5 teams to UCL next season because the european performance spot. Even more likely that Leverkusen will win the Pokal against Kaiserslautern that will be thinking in the relegation play-offs (what would even happen in this case with Kaiserlautern tight schedule?).
Frankfurt with 45 Pts looks safe in 6th for UEL. Therefore, the 7th will go to UEL and 8th will go to UCoL play-off. Their next games are:

7. Freiburg (40 Pts, -12 GD): Köln (A), Heidenheim (H), Union Berlin (A)
8. Augsburg (39 Pts, -4 GD): Dortmund (A), Stuttgart (H), Leverkusen (A)
9. Hoffenheim (39 Pts, -8 GD) : Leipzig (H), Darmstadt (A), Bayern (H)
10. Heidenheim (37 Pts, -8 GD): Mainz (H), Freiburg (A), Köln (H)
11. Bremen (37 Pts, -9 GD): Gladbach (H), Leipzig (A), Bochum (H)
12. Wolfsburg (34 Pts, -14 GD): Darmstadt (H), Bayern (A), Mainz (H)

Because of recent experience in UEFA competitions, I would rather Freiburg in 8th to maximize likelihood of advancing to UcoL league phase.

[BurningStorm]

Heidenheim has a historic chance for Europe (8th place), they face Mainz and Koln at home while Hoffenheim and Augsburg have a really tough schedule!

Big chance for Werder Bremen too!

I hope it's not Heidenheim in the ECL playoffs. Even though the playoffs look easier now, when I check dnina's seeding list. Still prefer other teams, the best for this would be Freiburg, as @ultra2013 said, despite getting a new coach (always dangerous in qualifications). Maybe even Hasenhüttl's Wolfsburg are in the race, six points are very possible at home, but they also have to play at Bayern... They surely need all 9 points to have a chance. If Bayern advance against Real they might rest several players, maybe this is Wolfsburg's small chance here. Bremen can make it with two not so difficult home wins.

Here you can simulate the rest of the season:
https://www.kicker.de/bundesliga/tabellenrechner

After my prediction of the three matchdays it looks like this:


For Heidenheim I predicted two draws (Freiburg, Mainz) and a win against Köln - wouldn't be enough if Bremen win the two home games. But predicting draws is always a walk on razor's edge.

[matt]

It's a six-teams battle for two spots (Eintracht can already be considered a safe top 8 team).

So, among Freiburg, Augsburg, Hoffenheim, Heidenheim, Werder Bremen and Wolfsburg i would like NOT to see Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg in Europe, but two of the four other teams.

Koln will have to win all three games to have realistic hopes, difficult. Bochum to play the relegation Play-off? (against Dusseldorf?).

HSV for sure hope at least to avoid the humiliation of seeing St. Pauli celebrate promotion in their stadium.

[BurningStorm]

Bremen was dumb enough to concede a penalty goal after handball in the 90th minute, only a draw. That changes a lot, especially after Hoffenheim's unexpected point against Leipzig. Still open, but it looks like Freiburg and Hoffenheim are the teams behind the top 6. As long as it's not Heidenheim, I won't complain. But they have a great opportunity, three doable opponents. Hopefully Mainz can prevent them from winning in the evening game on SUN.

Köln almost relegated. Another team with a very good fan base. 2. Bundesliga has better atmosphere than the 1., no kidding.

[mspm89]

Bremen was dumb enough to concede a penalty goal after handball in the 90th minute, only a draw. That changes a lot, especially after Hoffenheim's unexpected point against Leipzig. Still open, but it looks like Freiburg and Hoffenheim are the teams behind the top 6. As long as it's not Heidenheim, I won't complain. But they have a great opportunity, three doable opponents. Hopefully Mainz can prevent them from winning in the evening game on SUN.

Köln almost relegated. Another team with a very good fan base. 2. Bundesliga has better atmosphere than the 1., no kidding.

At least it's not the Ekstraklaasa. There, with Wisła, it's the equivalent of Dortmund spending a few years in 2. Bundesliga. Though among the top leagues, it is the one where it's more likely for a big team to go down. I never thought I'd see Schalke in this situation, and Hamburg has been rotting there for a while now.

[Lorric]

Kane scored a penalty but Bayern were beaten 3-1 at Stuttgart. Brings Stuttgart 2pts behind. That was goal 36. He's going to need two hat tricks to break the record now.

[Greyn]

Union chasing Bochum, 3-4 at 75'. It was already 0-3 at HT. Very important match for both in terms of the relegation battle.

[BurningStorm]

Bjelica could be sacked after the defeat. A few weeks ago they already announced to part ways after the season, so it wouldn't be a surprise to end it right away.

Good for Union: their schedule is the easier one compared to Mainz. First Köln away and then Freiburg at home. Mainz, the main opponent in the battle to avoid the relegation playoff spot, have to play Dortmund (H) and Wolfsburg (A). And Union have a point advantage. So the most likely playoff matchup is Mainz vs Düsseldorf.

In the race for the EL/ECL spots, Heidenheim couldn't beat Mainz, which was good news for me. But it's far from over: a win next MD in Freiburg and Heidenheim would overtake them. Freiburg surely don't want to mess up Christian Streich's farewell at home, so hopefully Heidenheim's away win won't happen. With a Freiburg win (and a Hoffenheim win at Darmstadt), Heidenheim's dreams are already over*. But I expect a draw and an open race on MD34.


*(assuming that Dortmund won't win the CL)