These nations could debut at the 2026 World Cup

[matt]

I'm surprised how quiet it has been since I published my lists. I expected perhaps some uproar about some of my selections or at least people asking me questions about some teams.

I guess we just keep going then....

This is an eurocentric forum that first of all cares about european club football. Interest for NT rise during international windows, especially (of course) during World Cups and Euros.

[Jackson Harrison]

I'm surprised how quiet it has been since I published my lists. I expected perhaps some uproar about some of my selections or at least people asking me questions about some teams.

I guess we just keep going then....

This is an eurocentric forum that first of all cares about european club football. Interest for NT rise during international windows, especially (of course) during World Cups and Euros.

As in now...

[TommyChat]

I'm surprised how quiet it has been since I published my lists. I expected perhaps some uproar about some of my selections or at least people asking me questions about some teams.

I guess we just keep going then....

This is an eurocentric forum that first of all cares about european club football. Interest for NT rise during international windows, especially (of course) during World Cups and Euros.

As in now...

The interest in women's game is nowhere near the men's one

[Jackson Harrison]

This is an eurocentric forum that first of all cares about european club football. Interest for NT rise during international windows, especially (of course) during World Cups and Euros.

As in now...

The interest in women's game is nowhere near the men's one

Throughout all levels it isn't but at WC level it's very similar these days.

[rpo.castro]

I'm surprised how quiet it has been since I published my lists. I expected perhaps some uproar about some of my selections or at least people asking me questions about some teams.

I guess we just keep going then....

This is an eurocentric forum that first of all cares about european club football. Interest for NT rise during international windows, especially (of course) during World Cups and Euros.

You just described me and I think most people.

[Kamtedrejt]

I'm surprised how quiet it has been since I published my lists. I expected perhaps some uproar about some of my selections or at least people asking me questions about some teams.

I guess we just keep going then....

This is an eurocentric forum that first of all cares about european club football. Interest for NT rise during international windows, especially (of course) during World Cups and Euros.

True.

Maybe we get more of a debate going when I'll publish my 16 UEFA teams to qulify for the 2026 World Cup. Remember I promised to come up with a 48 team prediction by 1 September. That contains also the UEFA contingent albeit it's very premature for very serious predictions but so what.

[Lorric]

I'm surprised how quiet it has been since I published my lists. I expected perhaps some uproar about some of my selections or at least people asking me questions about some teams.

I guess we just keep going then....

Well the one that sticks out to me is Suriname. I'm surprised you listed them, never mind in the top group. They couldn't even qualify for the final round of playoffs never mind the Gold Cup, following relegation from League A.

[Michael S Collins]

I don't get to see as much international football as I used to. (An understatement, a decade or so ago I watched nearly every World Cup qualifier for 2010 and most of 2014. But work/life commitments/parenting takes away that time and space!)

Gambia stuck out but I see they got to the last AFCON quarters, a tournament I sadly missed.

I'll second the Suriname surprise then.

(And yes, I'd prefer Thailand to get to the next stage over China tbh. But I'm used to the usual suspects clogging up the nearly run spots. And yes, I'm a hypocrite who doesn't consider Uzbekistan one of those very teams!)

[Kamtedrejt]

I'm surprised how quiet it has been since I published my lists. I expected perhaps some uproar about some of my selections or at least people asking me questions about some teams.

I guess we just keep going then....

Well the one that sticks out to me is Suriname. I'm surprised you listed them, never mind in the top group. They couldn't even qualify for the final round of playoffs never mind the Gold Cup, following relegation from League A.

Suriname played at the 2021 Gold Cup and registered a win over Guadeloupe but they couldn't get out of their group. The Nations League performances in League A were promising. They registered only a single point and were relegated but they showcased their skills and took the game to sides like Mexico and Jamaica at times. It's true that they were beaten by Puerto Rico on penalties in the Gold Cup prelims but I give them a pass for that.

Because of their strong ties to the Netherlands the Surinamnese team features primarily Dutch dual nationals. There is a constant influx of players coming in and commiting for Suriname. Just in March four players commited to them and there still a number of players who could make the switch from the Netherlands to Surinam. Keep in mind because of the change in rule by FIFA in late 2020 players who played three caps for the Netherlands before the age of 21 can still switch their allegiance to Suriname. The most known players are probably Diego Biseswar and Sheraldo Becker. The likes of Justin Kluivert are yet to commit for Suriname but as closer we approach to the final round of WCQ I expect most players to commit. The squad is decent but with a couple additions they can lift the level a bit more which might make them qualify for the 2026 World Cup.

[Lorric]

I'm surprised how quiet it has been since I published my lists. I expected perhaps some uproar about some of my selections or at least people asking me questions about some teams.

I guess we just keep going then....

Well the one that sticks out to me is Suriname. I'm surprised you listed them, never mind in the top group. They couldn't even qualify for the final round of playoffs never mind the Gold Cup, following relegation from League A.

Suriname played at the 2021 Gold Cup and registered a win over Guadeloupe but they couldn't get out of their group. The Nations League performances in League A were promising. They registered only a single point and were relegated but they showcased their skills and took the game to sides like Mexico and Jamaica at times. It's true that they were beaten by Puerto Rico on penalties in the Gold Cup prelims but I give them a pass for that.

Because of their strong ties to the Netherlands the Surinamnese team features primarily Dutch dual nationals. There is a constant influx of players coming in and commiting for Surinam. Just in March four players commited to them and there still a number of players who could make the switch from the Netherlands to Surinam. Keep in mind because of the change in rule by FIFA in late 2020 players who played three caps for the Netherlands before the age of 21 can still switch their allegiance to Suriname. The most known players are probably Diego Biseswar and Sheraldo Becker. The likes of Justin Kluivert are yet to commit for Suriname but as closer we approach to the final round of WCQ I expect most players to commit. The squad is decent but with a couple additions they can lift the level a bit more which might make them qualify for the 2026 World Cup.

It's possible, but I've been hearing about Suriname coming good for years, but they never do anything.

[Kamtedrejt]

Well the one that sticks out to me is Suriname. I'm surprised you listed them, never mind in the top group. They couldn't even qualify for the final round of playoffs never mind the Gold Cup, following relegation from League A.

Suriname played at the 2021 Gold Cup and registered a win over Guadeloupe but they couldn't get out of their group. The Nations League performances in League A were promising. They registered only a single point and were relegated but they showcased their skills and took the game to sides like Mexico and Jamaica at times. It's true that they were beaten by Puerto Rico on penalties in the Gold Cup prelims but I give them a pass for that.

Because of their strong ties to the Netherlands the Surinamnese team features primarily Dutch dual nationals. There is a constant influx of players coming in and commiting for Surinam. Just in March four players commited to them and there still a number of players who could make the switch from the Netherlands to Surinam. Keep in mind because of the change in rule by FIFA in late 2020 players who played three caps for the Netherlands before the age of 21 can still switch their allegiance to Suriname. The most known players are probably Diego Biseswar and Sheraldo Becker. The likes of Justin Kluivert are yet to commit for Suriname but as closer we approach to the final round of WCQ I expect most players to commit. The squad is decent but with a couple additions they can lift the level a bit more which might make them qualify for the 2026 World Cup.

It's possible, but I've been hearing about Suriname coming good for years, but they never do anything.

Yeah many people say that. They are yet to break through. What I saw in their League A Nations League campaign makes me hopeful that Suriname will take a similar trajectory to Canada in the 2022 WCQ cycle.

Remember a lot of people doubted Canada because of their long history of failures but they ended up not only qualifying but did that even in style. Now I don't see the Suriname project taking off that brilliantly but I do expect them to hit the ground running in WCQ. I think Suriname will at least earn an intercontinental playoff spot. If they really hit their stride they could qualify even directly.

[Lorric]

.

[Michele]

Here are 27 nations and how I rate their chances to debut at the 2026 World Cup. A lot of research has been done. A lot of footage has been checked out. Teams I didn't list won't stand a chance to qualify in my humble view.


Tier I - hopeful to qualify

Uzbekistan
Bahrain
Vietnam
Jordan
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Gabon
The Gambia
Mali
Suriname
Venezuela
Finland

Tier II - stand an okeyish chance to qualify

Oman
Zambia
Equatorial Guinea
Benin
Guatemala
Curaçao
Georgia
Albania

Tier III - stand a very small chance to qualify

Syria
Thailand
Guinea
Guinea Bissau
Armenia
Kazakhstan
North Macedonia
Luxembourg


Guys, engage! If you want to post your own selection of teams feel free to do so.

Furthermore I'm open to discuss the teams I named and give reasons for why I included them and why I put them in their respective tier.

Good luck to all potential debutants out there!

We are thrilled to see which nations will find their way to North America and benefit from the expansion to 48 teams.

It's interesting to see which teams you rate as potential first time qualifiers and how you divide them in three tiers. But for me it's also "easy" to make such lists. I know you have put a lot of work into these lists and I absolutely respect that. However, for me, the interesting part is which of these teams will actually qualify for the World Cup, and, unfortunately, I think that number will be very low.

I have a very hard time seeing anyone from tiers 2 or 3 qualify, so I will focus on tier 1 for now. CONCACAF, UEFA and CONMEBOL each have one team on your list, but I don't expect any of these teams to be even close to favorites to qualify. So they would probably have to hope for a kind draw and still have to spring a surprise or two to make it. So for me, that's 4 confederations (including OFC) with very little chance to produce a newcomer.

Next we have Africa. I know that the story goes that Africa is full of surprises and we have indeed seen some excellent results from surprise teams, but only at AFCON. Since 2006, which is probably the origin of this legend of unpredictability, Africa hasn't produced a single newcomer in the past four editions. No Mali scraping through, no Burkina Faso edging past a North African opponent, no top seed slipping up badly paving the way for an underdog. Only a rotation between well known teams with a history of qualifications already.

Many 2nd seeded teams only need to spring one surprise to qualify, but I don't see it happening to be honest. That leaves us with Mali who are indeed top seeds. They got the worst possible draw in Ghana, and I have Ghana as firm favorites, also because of their pedigree. So I see a maximum of one newcomer from Africa, but I don't even really believe in it.

That leaves us with Asia. I usually think that Asia is very unlikely to produce new teams as there is a very solid top 5 who rarely fails, but with the extra spots, I see some opportunities here.

Australia, Japan, South Korea, Iran and Saudi Arabia will qualify as always, but unlike the other confederations, I don't see the remaining previous qualifiers as obvious candidates to fill the remaining 3.5 spots. So I have a group of teams containing Qatar, Iraq, UAE, China, Oman, Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Jordan and Syria with more or less equal chance to qualify. So I think that 1-2 new teams is realistic.

Overall my prediction is two new teams at the World Cup, but I won't name them. At least one is from Asia, however.

[Kamtedrejt]

Here are 27 nations and how I rate their chances to debut at the 2026 World Cup. A lot of research has been done. A lot of footage has been checked out. Teams I didn't list won't stand a chance to qualify in my humble view.


Tier I - hopeful to qualify

Uzbekistan
Bahrain
Vietnam
Jordan
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Gabon
The Gambia
Mali
Suriname
Venezuela
Finland

Tier II - stand an okeyish chance to qualify

Oman
Zambia
Equatorial Guinea
Benin
Guatemala
Curaçao
Georgia
Albania

Tier III - stand a very small chance to qualify

Syria
Thailand
Guinea
Guinea Bissau
Armenia
Kazakhstan
North Macedonia
Luxembourg


Guys, engage! If you want to post your own selection of teams feel free to do so.

Furthermore I'm open to discuss the teams I named and give reasons for why I included them and why I put them in their respective tier.

Good luck to all potential debutants out there!

We are thrilled to see which nations will find their way to North America and benefit from the expansion to 48 teams.

It's interesting to see which teams you rate as potential first time qualifiers and how you divide them in three tiers. But for me it's also "easy" to make such lists. I know you have put a lot of work into these lists and I absolutely respect that. However, for me, the interesting part is which of these teams will actually qualify for the World Cup, and, unfortunately, I think that number will be very low.

I have a very hard time seeing anyone from tiers 2 or 3 qualify, so I will focus on tier 1 for now. CONCACAF, UEFA and CONMEBOL each have one team on your list, but I don't expect any of these teams to be even close to favorites to qualify. So they would probably have to hope for a kind draw and still have to spring a surprise or two to make it. So for me, that's 4 confederations (including OFC) with very little chance to produce a newcomer.

Next we have Africa. I know that the story goes that Africa is full of surprises and we have indeed seen some excellent results from surprise teams, but only at AFCON. Since 2006, which is probably the origin of this legend of unpredictability, Africa hasn't produced a single newcomer in the past four editions. No Mali scraping through, no Burkina Faso edging past a North African opponent, no top seed slipping up badly paving the way for an underdog. Only a rotation between well known teams with a history of qualifications already.

Many 2nd seeded teams only need to spring one surprise to qualify, but I don't see it happening to be honest. That leaves us with Mali who are indeed top seeds. They got the worst possible draw in Ghana, and I have Ghana as firm favorites, also because of their pedigree. So I see a maximum of one newcomer from Africa, but I don't even really believe in it.

That leaves us with Asia. I usually think that Asia is very unlikely to produce new teams as there is a very solid top 5 who rarely fails, but with the extra spots, I see some opportunities here.

Australia, Japan, South Korea, Iran and Saudi Arabia will qualify as always, but unlike the other confederations, I don't see the remaining previous qualifiers as obvious candidates to fill the remaining 3.5 spots. So I have a group of teams containing Qatar, Iraq, UAE, China, Oman, Uzbekistan, Bahrain, Jordan and Syria with more or less equal chance to qualify. So I think that 1-2 new teams is realistic.

Overall my prediction is two new teams at the World Cup, but I won't name them. At least one is from Asia, however.

Two debutants is a bit pessimistic prediction.

My 48 team prediction will feature probably four debutants.

Here is how I would rate this cycle for the potential debutants. If we end up with......

0-2 debutants => disappointing

3-4 debutants => decent and that's what I expect

5-6 debutants => very good

Beyond 6 debutants => fantastic (but I rule that out)

[Kamtedrejt]

Already picked

Venezuela
Uzbekistan
Bahrain

to debut at the 2026 World Cup. That makes it already three.
I will certainly add another debutant, perhaps even two.

Let's see.