2023/2024 Conference League Group E: AZ Alkmaar - Aston Villa - Legia - Zrinjski

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Aston Villa!


They scored 4 goals from only 5 shots on goal.

Ryan is having an awful season, 4 goals conceded from 5 shots on goal here, in the previous match he kept a clean sheet with 2 shots on goal, but in the first against Zrinjski again he conceded 4 goals from 5 shots on goal.

So in total he had 12 shots on goal to save and he could only save 4.

He already conceded more goals here in 3 matches than last season in 6 Conference League matches against Lazio, Anderlecht and West Ham!

At the moment AZ Alkmaar is the worst pot 1 team in Conference League, 3 points and a -3GD. Dinamo Zagreb also has 3 points but they have a +1GD.

[jayjay]

If Legia and Aston Villa will win their home games this week then they can just settle for a draw in the direct game to guarantee the qualifications

[Greyn]

If Legia and Aston Villa will win their home games this week then they can just settle for a draw in the direct game to guarantee the qualifications

Another "Disgrace of Gijon", this time in Birmingham?

Nah, I am pretty sure that Aston Villa would go for a win, particularly because there is a huge difference between finishing 1st or 2nd.

Legia has a record of W:1 D:0 L:4 in last 5 matches in the Ekstraklasa, but it is a misleading info for these who did not watch the matches. I think it is fair to say that Legia is in a small crisis, but not in a deep one. Legia simply could not convert chances to goals and conceded the goals after silly mistakes in defense, usually after counter attacks. There is no collapse and with a bit of luck things should be back at the normal level quickly. In my opinion the match vs AZ was the worst performance by Legia this season and that was a fully deserved loss, even so AZ were very poor as well.

[Lorric]

If Legia and Aston Villa will win their home games this week then they can just settle for a draw in the direct game to guarantee the qualifications

Another "Disgrace of Gijon", this time in Birmingham?

Nah, I am pretty sure that Aston Villa would go for a win, particularly because there is a huge difference between finishing 1st or 2nd.

Legia has a record of W:1 D:0 L:4 in last 5 matches in the Ekstraklasa, but it is a misleading info for these who did not watch the matches. I think it is fair to say that Legia is in a small crisis, but not in a deep one. Legia simply could not convert chances to goals and conceded the goals after silly mistakes in defense, usually after counter attacks. There is no collapse and with a bit of luck things should be back at the normal level quickly. In my opinion the match vs AZ was the worst performance by Legia this season and that was a fully deserved loss, even so AZ were very poor as well.

Definitely, and I'm sure Legia would go for the win too if the situation was reversed. The chances of being caught if both win on Thursday are remote, there's no need for such caution even if anyone was inclined to do that.

[Greyn]

If Legia and Aston Villa will win their home games this week then they can just settle for a draw in the direct game to guarantee the qualifications

Another "Disgrace of Gijon", this time in Birmingham?

Nah, I am pretty sure that Aston Villa would go for a win, particularly because there is a huge difference between finishing 1st or 2nd.

Legia has a record of W:1 D:0 L:4 in last 5 matches in the Ekstraklasa, but it is a misleading info for these who did not watch the matches. I think it is fair to say that Legia is in a small crisis, but not in a deep one. Legia simply could not convert chances to goals and conceded the goals after silly mistakes in defense, usually after counter attacks. There is no collapse and with a bit of luck things should be back at the normal level quickly. In my opinion the match vs AZ was the worst performance by Legia this season and that was a fully deserved loss, even so AZ were very poor as well.

Definitely, and I'm sure Legia would go for the win too if the situation was reversed. The chances of being caught if both win on Thursday are remote, there's no need for such caution even if anyone was inclined to do that.

Even if Legia beat Zrinjski on Thursday and AZ lose to Villa in England, there will be still a realistic chance that AZ will be able to catch Legia at the end with 9 points and a better H2H. If they end up with 9 points it would be equal with beating Legia twice. I don't have much hope in any point gain in Birmingham and AZ beating Zrinjski at home is very, very likely imo.

So just imagine a scenario before MD 6:
Aston Villa - 12 points
Legia - 9 points
AZ - 6 points
Zrinjski - 3 points

I would be very nervous before home match vs AZ on the last MD, even if only a draw would be needed for Legia to finish 2nd.

Making these calculations, like these above, doesn't make any sense of course with 3 MD to go because most probably at least 1 of 4 next results (Legia - Zrinjski, Aston Villa - AZ, Aston Villa - Legia, AZ - Zrinjski) will be unexpected and "against the plan", so better let's wait for matches to be played and we will see how the standings will look like before last MD.

[BorisMo]

No way Aston Villa would risk first place in that scenario, they would probably also want to avenge a loss in Warsaw.
But before that both Villa and Legia need to win their games on Thursday. Legia didn't look that convincing in Mostar. They were very fortunate to get 3 VAR decisions in their favour, all of them very close offsides (haters would question if one of those even was offside at all, *cough* 70th minute *cough*). And also Zrinjski scored stupid own goal. It will be interesting match, we will see.
Aston Villa are big favorites against AZ at home, but there is still job to do.

[Dragonite]

Expected wins for Legia and Aston Villa.

AZ Alkmaar hanging by a thread here.

They need to win against Zrinjski, then they need Legia to lose in England, and then they have to win against Legia in Poland.

It's not impossible, but there's no margin of error anymore, any scenario beside this and they're out.

[Polak]

As mentioned above a draw at Villa Park puts both Villa and Legia through, but I don't think Aston Villa are going to be happy with a draw. Legia will most likely have to avoid losing to AZ in the final game if they want to qualify from the group.

[BorisMo]

If Aston Villa beats Legia by 2 or more goals, they will secure first place in group, right?

[bugylibicska]

If Aston Villa beats Legia by 2 or more goals, they will secure first place in group, right?

Yes.

[Ricardo]

If AZ manages to beat Legia twice then they deserve to go through instead of Legia. If not then the other matches are decisive and then the Az loss vs zrjinski and Legia win over Villa makes it clear Legia is the deserved team to continue.

[Greyn]

As a Legia fan I naturally hope that something will "go against the plan" in group E - Legia avoiding a loss in Birmingham OR Zrinjski avoiding a loss in Alkmaar. According to the bookies and the odds posted by bugy - odds for both Aston Villa and AZ to win are 1.25 * 1.30 = 1.625, so less than 50%, but a very decent chance that my "dream will come true" after this MD.

However, if we ignore the bookie odds, it is hard to imagine for me any other scenario than both Aston Villa and AZ winning their home matches vs Legia and Zrinjski respectively. Two clashes between teams from two different football worlds, more like many CLGS type of clashes with a big gap in quality between both sides.

Additionally, Legia are clueless in defending making many mistakes and lacks confidence in this part of the field. Kosta Runjaić will have a really tough nut to crack regarding a choice of tactics for this match. Usually, being aware of Legia weakness in defense, he prefers to fully use team's offensive potential where Legia have players of much better quality. I guess he is fully aware that this kind of tactics brings much higher risk of conceding, but as we know, in football the key thing is to score one more goal than your opponent. As a result Legia ties in the qualifiers ended with high scoreline ( Legia - Ordabasy 4-3, Legia - Austria Wien 6-5, Legia - Midtjylland 4-4). Aston Villa are surely much more powerful offensively (29 goals scored in 12 matches in the EPL, 2nd best team in the league, just behind Manchester City with 32 goals) and combining that with a shaky defensive play by Legia, I won't be surprised with Legia conceding many goals in Birmingham. How Zrinjski survived there for so long time is a big mystery for me.

[Polak]

The Legia w AZ match in Warsaw will be without away fans.

[Forza AZ]

The Legia w AZ match in Warsaw will be without away fans.

AZ decided this themselves, because they think the safety of the AZ-fans can't be guarenteed.

[Dragonite]

Congratulations Aston Villa!


They already advanced from this group.

They were the opposite of Zrinjski. Zrinjski started with a win, then lost its following 4 matches and is already eliminated, while Aston Villa started with a defeat, then won its following 4 matches and is already qualified.

Legia vs AZ Alkmaar will be a direct batlle to see who advances alongside Aston Villa. AZ Alkmaar must win, otherwise they'll be eliminated.