2023/24 Conference League quarter-finals, semi-finals and final

[seso]

2010-11 EL-GS Club Brugge vs PAOK 1-1 and 1-1

2021-22 EL-GS Fenerbahçe vs Olympiakos 0-3 and 0-1

[hooligan83]

olympiakos-fenerbahce:45-55
aston villa-lille:70-30
plzen-fiorentina:25-75
brugge-paok:60-40

[emortal]

PAOK vs Brugge (yay!)
Olympiakos vs Fenerbahce
Aston Villa vs LOSC Lille
Victoria Plzen vs Fiorentina

Semifinals
PAOK/Brugge vs Victoria Plzen/Fiorentina
Olympiakos/Fenerbahce vs Aston Villa/LOSC Lille

Which is right? BBC have it as:

Quarter-finals:

Club Bruges v PAOK

Olympiakos v Fenerbahce

Aston Villa v Lille

Viktoria Plzen v Fiorentina

Semi-finals:

Aston Villa or Lille v Olympiakos or Fenerbahce

Viktoria Plzen or Fiorentina v Club Bruges or PAOK

Villa home 1st or 2nd in semis?

It's one of those rare cases where BBC got it correct.
I was so happy with the draw I didn't pay attention to the order of the legs.

PAOK has the return leg in Toumba for both the QF and SF.
If the team plays that like yesterday they can reach the final.

[Lorric]

PAOK vs Brugge (yay!)
Olympiakos vs Fenerbahce
Aston Villa vs LOSC Lille
Victoria Plzen vs Fiorentina

Semifinals
PAOK/Brugge vs Victoria Plzen/Fiorentina
Olympiakos/Fenerbahce vs Aston Villa/LOSC Lille

Which is right? BBC have it as:

Quarter-finals:

Club Bruges v PAOK

Olympiakos v Fenerbahce

Aston Villa v Lille

Viktoria Plzen v Fiorentina

Semi-finals:

Aston Villa or Lille v Olympiakos or Fenerbahce

Viktoria Plzen or Fiorentina v Club Bruges or PAOK

Villa home 1st or 2nd in semis?

It's one of those rare cases where BBC got it correct.
I was so happy with the draw I didn't pay attention to the order of the legs.

PAOK has the return leg in Toumba for both the QF and SF.
If the team plays that like yesterday they can reach the final.

Thanks.

[bugylibicska]

Interesting draw. The Greeks avoided the top favourites and have a chance to reach the semis. Their ties both about 50/50. Aston Villa are slight favourites over Lille and Fiorentina got the best draw against Plzen.

Club Brugge - PAOK 50/50
Olympiakos - Fenerbahce 50/50
Aston Villa - Lille 55/45
Plzen - Fiorentina 35/65

If PAOK make it their opponent could be Fiorentina, I'd give them a 45/55 chance, so slight underdogs. Olympiakos might meet Aston Villa where they'll be clear underdogs, maybe 30/70. I'd give the Greeks less than 50% chance to collect 10 points and knock off Denmark.

[seso]

Interesting draw. The Greeks avoided the top favourites and have a chance to reach the semis. Their ties both about 50/50. Aston Villa are slight favourites over Lille and Fiorentina got the best draw against Plzen.

Club Brugge - PAOK 50/50
Olympiakos - Fenerbahce 50/50
Aston Villa - Lille 55/45
Plzen - Fiorentina 35/65

If PAOK make it their opponent could be Fiorentina, I'd give them a 45/55 chance, so slight underdogs. Olympiakos might meet Aston Villa where they'll be clear underdogs, maybe 30/70. I'd give the Greeks less than 50% chance to collect 10 points and knock off Denmark.

Well, you are entitled to your opinion, but I see a Greek final in Athens!

[Greyn]

Interesting draw. The Greeks avoided the top favourites and have a chance to reach the semis. Their ties both about 50/50. Aston Villa are slight favourites over Lille and Fiorentina got the best draw against Plzen.

Club Brugge - PAOK 50/50
Olympiakos - Fenerbahce 50/50
Aston Villa - Lille 55/45
Plzen - Fiorentina 35/65

If PAOK make it their opponent could be Fiorentina, I'd give them a 45/55 chance, so slight underdogs. Olympiakos might meet Aston Villa where they'll be clear underdogs, maybe 30/70. I'd give the Greeks less than 50% chance to collect 10 points and knock off Denmark.

Well, you are entitled to your opinion, but I see a Greek final in Athens!

I guess it is about time to turn off PlayStation.

[seso]

Interesting draw. The Greeks avoided the top favourites and have a chance to reach the semis. Their ties both about 50/50. Aston Villa are slight favourites over Lille and Fiorentina got the best draw against Plzen.

Club Brugge - PAOK 50/50
Olympiakos - Fenerbahce 50/50
Aston Villa - Lille 55/45
Plzen - Fiorentina 35/65

If PAOK make it their opponent could be Fiorentina, I'd give them a 45/55 chance, so slight underdogs. Olympiakos might meet Aston Villa where they'll be clear underdogs, maybe 30/70. I'd give the Greeks less than 50% chance to collect 10 points and knock off Denmark.

Well, you are entitled to your opinion, but I see a Greek final in Athens!

I guess it is about time to turn off PlayStation.

I am deeply offended, Greyn!

[Greyn]

Well, you are entitled to your opinion, but I see a Greek final in Athens!

I guess it is about time to turn off PlayStation.

I am deeply offended, Greyn!

Nah, it was just a "poor" joke from me. I have nothing against both PAOK and Olympiakos, good luck to both.

I remember that in FIFA 2005 or 2006 I created a tournament like a Champions League, I played as Legia and I won it.

[bugylibicska]

Interesting draw. The Greeks avoided the top favourites and have a chance to reach the semis. Their ties both about 50/50. Aston Villa are slight favourites over Lille and Fiorentina got the best draw against Plzen.

Club Brugge - PAOK 50/50
Olympiakos - Fenerbahce 50/50
Aston Villa - Lille 55/45
Plzen - Fiorentina 35/65

If PAOK make it their opponent could be Fiorentina, I'd give them a 45/55 chance, so slight underdogs. Olympiakos might meet Aston Villa where they'll be clear underdogs, maybe 30/70. I'd give the Greeks less than 50% chance to collect 10 points and knock off Denmark.

Well, you are entitled to your opinion, but I see a Greek final in Athens!

Outright after the draw:

Aston Villa 2.75
Fiorentina 4.00
Lille 6.00
Fenerbahce 7.00
Club Brugge 12.00
Viktoria Plzen, PAOK 21.00
Olympiacos 26.00

[Jua Ferreira]

Aston Villa 65 - 35 Lille, the tie is like early final. No team can resist Aston Villa if they really care. Winner of this tie shall be heavy favourite to win the cup.

Olympiakos 50 - 50 Fenerbahçe balanced tie. Fenerbahçe has bad stats against Greek teams. Panathinaikos in 2002, Paok in 2012 and Olympiakos in 2021 EL Groups, all lost. (Years are approximate here, i do not remember correct dates). Btw this clubs' basketball teams will face in Euroleague too.

V. Plzen 40 - 60 Fiorentina : V. Plzen, unbeaten in Europe, conceded only 3 in 14 games. I can smell another 0-0 agg. here

Club Brugge 45 - 55 PAOK : Both teams have great chance to be in the final with this draw. Especially Club Brugge without domestic title race can focus on the tie. However PAOK semms slight favourite to me given their better results during this year.

-----

Semi finals as per my expectations
Aston Villa - Olympiakos
Fiorentina - PAOK

Final
Aston Villa - Fiorentina

Winner : Aston Villa

[amenina]

https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaconferen ... gue-draws/

Europa Conference League draws
Quarter-finals

First legs
Thursday 11 April
Viktoria Plzeň vs Fiorentina (18:45 CET)
Olympiacos vs Fenerbahçe (18:45 CET)
Aston Villa vs LOSC Lille (21:00 CET)
Club Brugge vs PAOK (21:00 CET)

Second legs
Thursday 18 April
LOSC Lille vs Aston Villa (18:45 CET)
Fiorentina vs Viktoria Plzeň (18:45 CET)
PAOK vs Club Brugge (21:00 CET)
Fenerbahçe vs Olympiacos (21:00 CET)

Semi-finals

First legs
Thursday 2 May
Aston Villa / LOSC Lille vs Olympiacos / Fenerbahçe (21:00 CET)
Viktoria Plzeň / Fiorentina vs Club Brugge / PAOK (21:00 CET)

Second legs
Thursday 9 May
Olympiacos / Fenerbahçe vs Aston Villa / LOSC Lille (21:00 CET)
*Club Brugge / PAOK vs Viktoria Plzeň / Fiorentina (21:00 CET)

*If Club Brugge qualify for the semi-finals, their home match will be scheduled on Wednesday 8 May 2024 at 18.45 CET.

[bugylibicska]

Odds for the 1st legs:

Aston Villa v Lille 1.65 3.75 4.50
Club Brugge v PAOK 1.91 3.50 3.40
Olympiacos v Fenerbahce 2.37 3.40 2.62
Viktoria Plzen v Fiorentina 3.40 3.40 1.95

[naaba]

Can't upload full size picture ?

Favorites of each tie according to Opta :

Aston Villa - 59.4%
Lille - 40.6%

Olympiacos - 30.3%
Fenerbahçe - 69.7%

Viktoria Plzeň - 29.8%
Fiorentina - 70.2%

Club Brugge - 67.7%
PAOK - 32.4%

[emortal]

Favorites of each tie according to Opta :

Aston Villa - 59.4%
Lille - 40.6%

Olympiacos - 30.3%
Fenerbahçe - 69.7%

Viktoria Plzeň - 29.8%
Fiorentina - 70.2%

Club Brugge - 67.7%
PAOK - 32.4%

So, according to Opta Brugge, Fiorentina and Fener are more favored to go through than Villa?

They may want to re-adjust their prediction algorithm.

I don't have one.
But just based on my feeling and my current team strength estimates I give PAOK about 20% to be in the final.

Especially the predictions for Fiorentina look wrong to me.