new coefficient calculation from 2024/25

[elkjiaer is back]

I simulated UCL season 24/25 considering only teams which are currently projected to qualify to the League Phase.
I then compared the Uefa Country Points for the next season to the ones of the last 3 seasons with the current format (including current one)

Those are the average Uefa Country Points expected by League Phase finishing:

1 to 8: UCP 30.5 (+5.9 compared to old format)
9 to 16: UCP 24.2 (+4.7 compared to old format)
17 to 24: UCP 18.7 (+4.8 )
25 to 36: UCP 10.6 (+4.2)

for 1 to 8 and 17 to 24 the difference is largely explained by bonus points, for 25 to 36 the difference is 50% due to bonus points and for 9 to 16 bonus points only have a marginal contribution

So basically every team is projected to collect more Uefa Country Points (not coefficients, but points) and teams finishing 17 to 24 in the League Phase, that nominally would have been transferred to the UEL with the old format, are still projected to collect more points thanks to bonus + extra matches (2 in the LP + minimum 2 in the Knock Out)

If we only look at teams from the top4 countries then on average they are expect to collect 4.2 Uefa Country Points more compared that with the old format, which is very much in line with the differences we saw above

[eye]

I simulated UCL season 24/25 considering only teams which are currently projected to qualify to the League Phase.
I then compared the Uefa Country Points for the next season to the ones of the last 3 seasons with the current format (including current one)

Those are the average Uefa Country Points expected by League Phase finishing:

1 to 8: UCP 30.5 (+5.9 compared to old format)
9 to 16: UCP 24.2 (+4.7 compared to old format)
17 to 24: UCP 18.7 (+4.8 )
25 to 36: UCP 10.6 (+4.2)

for 1 to 8 and 17 to 24 the difference is largely explained by bonus points, for 25 to 36 the difference is 50% due to bonus points and for 9 to 16 bonus points only have a marginal contribution

So basically every team is projected to collect more Uefa Country Points (not coefficients, but points) and teams finishing 17 to 24 in the League Phase, that nominally would have been transferred to the UEL with the old format, are still projected to collect more points thanks to bonus + extra matches (2 in the LP + minimum 2 in the Knock Out)

If we only look at teams from the top4 countries then on average they are expect to collect 4.2 Uefa Country Points more compared that with the old format, which is very much in line with the differences we saw above

Actually you don't need simulations for these numbers cause you get similar numbers just comparing the differences of current and next system. Eg at current system the top 8 is getting 4 points bonus for taking part at GS, 4 more bonus points being at top2 of group and 1 for reaching R16 totally 9 bonus points. At new system top 8 of league get on average 11.125 bonus points based on their standings and 1.5 points for reaching R16 totally 12.625. Since they are also playing 2 more matches against clubs of same level on average they will get 2 more points from these matches so their totally average increase will be 5.625 points.